“If the Republican presidential primary election were held today who would you choose?
Ted Cruz: 4.2%
Rand Paul: 3.3%
Marco Rubio: 9.7%
Ben Carson: 4.5%
Jeb Bush: 20.0%
Donald Trump: 26.1%
Scott Walker: 12.2%
John Kasich: 4.1%
Unsure or Someone else: 15.9%”
Thanks for posting that methodology and breakdown. Some analysis:
The unweighted averages are approximately the same as the weighted, so this adds more credence to the poll.
The age demographic breakdown is startling: of all age groups (except 18-29) Trump is the clear winner, with the bracket of 50-69 giving his most commanding lead over Bush of a whole ten percentage points. Also, surprisingly, Bush actually leads Trump in the 18-29 demographic. One would think Paul would appeal to that demographic but I guess it is Florida so Bush probably has simply more name recognition there. But that doesn’t fully explain why Trump isn’t ahead of him in that age group. Bottom line it seems the younger crowd really does NOT like Trump for whatever reason, which is surprising to me.
This was a poll conducted through mass email recruiting. So I’m not sure how reliable that would be (although it’s arguable to say it just as reliable as mass cold calls to land lines.).
At any rate the results for the youngest group doesn’t follow the rest of the group’s so I’m not sure how statistically significant those results would be.
Anyway interesting poll to be sure! Thanks for posting.