As a Cruz supporter, I’ll be voting Trump because I want a first ballot victory for the most conservative candidate who can win on that first ballot. The alternative is an establishment pick on the second or a later ballot, and that would be much worse than Cruz or Trump.
I approve of both Cruz and Kasich staying in the race, since Kasich gives the establishment some hope, and Cruz splits the anti-Trump vote. I approve of Cruz maneuvering for delegates, as Kasich is doing, and as Trump is doing. That is how it has always been done, just like bluffing is accepted in poker. Their mutual efforts should (mostly) neutralize each other and cancel out.
RULE NO. 16 says that bound delegates must vote as bound on the first ballot.
As for rule 40b, read it carefully.
https://cdn.gop.com/docs/2012_RULES_Adopted.pdf (page number 39-40 on the pages; pdf file pages 43-44)
“RULE NO. 40 (b) Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination. Notwithstanding any other provisions of these rules or any rule of the House of Representatives, to demonstrate the support required of this paragraph a certificate evidencing the affirmative written support of the required number of permanently seated delegates from each of the eight (8) or more states shall have been submitted to the secretary of the convention not later than one (1) hour prior to the placing of the names of candidates for nomination pursuant to this rule and the established order of business.”
In the second round of voting, even Donald Trump would have to present evidence that he still has the support of a majority of delegates from eight or more states. Also, in the second round of voting, even Jeb could be nominated if he could present certifications from a majority of delegates from eight or more states. Rule 40 (b) does not contain a requirement for a majority of voters in the primaries.
Cruz has a majority of bound delegates in Texas, Kansas, Maine, Idaho, and Utah, for five of the eight he needs. If he gets three more states: including the Rubio delegates from Minnesota, Louisiana, or Puerto Rico; unbound delegates from Colorado, DC, American Samoa; or any of the remaining states, Cruz can be nominated in the first round too. Part of the purpose of unbound delegates is to negotiate with nominees for their support in exactly this manner.
These somewhat ugly rules are how the game is played, and I assume Trump is playing by the same rules. He’d better be proving mastery of The Art of the Deal, or he won’t win.
As you said: "These somewhat ugly rules are how the game is played, and I assume Trump is playing by the same rules. He’d better be proving mastery of The Art of the Deal, or he won’t win." Between Roger Stone and Trump, they should have this hammered. We'll see how it all plays out.
Yep. Too many Cruz supporters are deluded into thinking that thwarting Trump will get them Cruz.
Fat chance.