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So in your opinion (that was a good write up by the way), can Cruz with the GE?

In my opinion, any one of the 17 candidates EXCEPT the one bearing the Bush name could win over HRC, because she is a very weak candidate.

I believe Cruz or Trump could win the general, with Trump having more upside (can win in northeast) but also more risk (he comes close to going all Carl Paladino and Richard Murdock at the same time, which might not work well in the general election).

When do the Democrats win? They win when a new face can be framed in a flattering light by the media, if he isn't a complete doofus, and if the Republicans aren't willing to fight.

The 1996 Clinton was new as a national player, and George the Elder was a complete doofus unwilling to fight.

The 2008 Obama was very new as a national player, and Dole was a complete doofus unwilling to fight.

Kerry was old news. Dukakis was the doofus and George the Elder was willing to fight then, and fed off of Reagan's non-dooficity.

Mondale was old news. Reagan was Reagan.

Jimmy Carter was a new face on the national scene. Ford ran a decent campaign (outside of the East Europe remarks at the debates), but suffered from Nixon's duficity.

Gore is a special case that needs his own thread.

Only the RNC can stop the Republicans against Hillary Rodham Clinton.

I agree with everything you wrote; however, I am also inclined to give deference to the Blue Wall, meaning those states won by the D’s every time since 1992. I don’t see that changing, so she begins with like 240 EVs.

That means it all comes down to Ohio, like 2004.

I only see the GOP winning very narrowly, if at all....like 2000 or 2004. But you seem more optimistic that each race is a new one, and states are not necessarily committed one way or the other. I sure hope you are right.