“Somehow I don’t see Gary Johnson doing that. In fact, I would bet he doesn’t crack 3%, as I simply cannot see Johnson beating Ralph Nader’s 2.7% in the 2000 election. “
I’ll take odds on that. I’m thinking at least 10 percent of the popular vote
The Libertarian Party's high-water mark in presidential elections is the 1.06% Ed Clark received in 1980. Gary Johnson himself didn't even get a full 1% in 2012. I don't know what you think is so damn different this go around, but I've seen enough of these presidential elections to know that third party candidates never live up to their media or polling hype.