I don’t doubt that we are on that path. But I remember all the talk about the EUR replacing the USD, the CNY doing the same because of how big China will become.....etc.
Reality is that collective currencies like the EUR can never supplant the USD because you are getting problems of 20+ countries. CNY is sterilized to the point that if the Chinese let it float freely they would undermine their own economy as well as force a capital flight so it can never be so available as to become relevant.
The Russian economy is so backward and corrupt that to risk accepting RUB when the Central Bank has a history of simply shutting down FX payments at will is a recipe for disaster.
A point I’ve seen made that as messed up as we are, the rest of the world is even more messed up. Which is sort of the general point you were making.
What’s the difference between Brazil government debt to GDP at 80% and US debt to GDP at 100%?
The Brazilan Real is not a world reserve currency and international trade is not traded in Reals. The largest item is oil/energy, its is solely the reason the US is knee-deep in places like Syria, Iraq and Libya.
Having the world’s largest reserve currency, having the world trade oil in US Dollars, and having a huge military to keep the world existing geo-political alignments in place means the USA has a big advantage
The USA will run a $1 Trillion budget deficit this FY. Americans will buy some of that debt, but so will many foreign investors and central banks. That keeps our interest rates low and gives huge advantage to stupid US politicians to spend (and waste) money. IMHO, progressives, leftists and our coastal political and academic elites in CA, MA, DC and NY City would disappear immediately without their special access to this printed money and debt. They are huge beneficiaries of this special advantage.
China and Russia aren’t fools. They will continue to attack this special advantage of their adversary.