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When John refers to "the water" in this passage, do you share the opinion that he has the baptism of our Lord in mind? At the time of this writing I don't think many of those reading would make that connection.

That is not an uncommon opinion. But to certify it as a genuine one, let's look at some Scriptures:

For the entry of a priest of God into his duties:

Moses baptizes Aaron as High Priest, and Aaron's sons:

Exodus 40:12 (AV):

¹²And thou shalt bring Aaron and his sons unto the door of the tabernacle of the congregation, and wash them with water.

Ritual cleansing of the High Priest to make atonement of blood:

Leviticus 16:4 (AV) (cf. verses 24, 26) ⁴He shall put on the holy linen coat, and he shall have the linen breeches upon his flesh, and shall be girded with a linen girdle,
and with the linen mitre shall he be attired: these are holy garments; therefore shall he wash his flesh in water,
and so put them on.
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The preparation of Jesus for His public ministry:

The Baptism of Jesus by John:

Matthew 3:13-17 (AV): ¹³ Then cometh Jesus from Galilee to Jordan unto John, to be baptized of him.
¹⁴ But John forbad him, saying, I have need to be baptized of thee, and comest thou to me?
¹⁵ And Jesus answering said unto him,

Suffer it to be so now: for thus it becometh us to fulfil all righteousness.

Then he suffered him.
¹⁶ And Jesus, when he was baptized, went up straightway out of the water: and, lo, the heavens were opened unto him,
and he saw the Spirit of God descending like a dove, and lighting upon him:
¹⁷ And lo a voice from heaven, saying,

This is my beloved Son, in whom I am well pleased.

The witness of The Spirit:

John 1:29-34 (AV):

²⁹ The next day John seeth Jesus coming unto him, and saith, Behold the Lamb of God, which taketh away the sin of the world.
³⁰ This is he of whom I said, After me cometh a man which is preferred before me: for he was before me.
³¹ And I knew him not: but that he should be made manifest to Israel, therefore am I come baptizing with water.
³² And John bare record, saying, I saw the Spirit descending from heaven like a dove, and it abode upon him.
³³ And I knew him not: but he that sent me to baptize with water, the same said unto me,

Upon whom thou shalt see the Spirit descending, and remaining on him, the same is he which baptizeth with the Holy Ghost.

³⁴ And I saw, and bare record that this is the Son of God.
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The Witness of the Tree, Spirit, Water, and The Blood agreeing:

1 John 5:6,7,8 renderings:

A. John N. Darby's Version:

⁶ This is he that came by water and blood, Jesus the Christ; not by water only, but by water and blood.
And it is the Spirit that bears witness, for the Spirit is the truth.
⁷ For they that bear witness are three:
⁸ the Spirit, and the water, and the blood; and the three agree in one.

B. Douay-Rheims Version: ⁶ This is he that came by water and blood, Jesus Christ: not by water only but by water and blood.
And it is the Spirit which testifieth that Christ is the truth.
⁷ And there are Three who give testimony *in heaven, the Father, the Word, and the Holy Ghost.
And these three are one. ⁸ And there are three that give testimony on earth**
: the spirit and the water and the blood. And these three are one.

C. King James/Authorized Version:

⁶ This is he that came by water and blood, even Jesus Christ; not by water only, but by water and blood.
And it is the Spirit that beareth witness, because the Spirit is truth.
⁷ For there are three that bear record *in heaven, the Father, the Word, and the Holy Ghost: and these three are one. ⁸ And there are three that bear witness in earth, the Spirit, and the water, and the blood**
: and these three agree in one.
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Note: The portion between * and ** is persent in the Vulgate and in the Textus Receptus, but Erasmus added these words in Greek only under duress, since they are present in none of the Byzantine collection save one or at most two MSS, which in themselves are contested.
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Regarding the discussion of the meaning of "water" in verses 6 and 8, each commentator shows that not all others are in agreement, but none are so positive in their outlook that no other approach can be absolutely eliminated.

To avoid a lengthy argument here, just let me say a few things.

The first is that a Christ-follower is convinced to demonstrate that the purpose of God's incarnation is to show that the Perfect Second Adam can fulfill the specifications set out by Jehovah in the Mosaic and Davidic Covenants such that the way to re-establishing intimate fellowship with The Mighty God and Heavenly Father is within the reach of a perfectly-behaved human.

Then, if so, the behavior of that human must never depart from rightness in any way. Furthermore, if the course of establishing that way is by a human representing man, he is necessarily an intermediate, and thus a Law-ordained Priest fulfilling that function. By the Law, a priest entering upon his ministerial duties must first be ritually cleansed in living water. And if that is what is meant by the reference to water in the passage under consideration, that could be the baptism administered by John, not unto repentance as for other humans, but as the first step of entering into the task of fulfilling all the righteousness demanded by the Law by which Jehovah's Righteous Demands can be satisfied.

Furthermore, there conceivably would come some point at which, under the Law, those Demands would be fully fulfilled, and the unilaterally negotiated result achieved, marking the end of that process of fulfillment.

However, under the Law, it is necessary that for the debt of sins committed be paid, the payment is to be in the Blood of the man who committed them, OR in that of an innocent unblemished male lamb be substituted in place of that man's blood. But whereas in the past the blood of bulls and goats (and lamb) animals could not utterly remove sins, they could be only covered for a time, with punishment allayed, until the next episode of human sinning started the cycle all over again.

BUT, if it was the Blood of a perfect human offered as required for the sin debt to be completely paid, the Law satisfying the debt with genuine, incorruptible currency would be completed, fully fulfilled. But that is exactly what happened when the Lamb of God, a human having lived a perfect birth, life, and substitutionary sacrificial punishment, dipped into the Lake of Fire, came to the point of physical dissociation of His Soul (to Paradise) and Spirit (to the care of His Father), and His Body (to the Grave), exultantly shouted, "Tetelestai!"--"It stands finished, completed, fully fulfilled, never to be repeated but with the effects continuing forever!"

That is when the public ministry, begun with the ritual cleansing of the Perfect Priest, Teacher, Lamb of God by Baptism unto the task of fulfilling all righteousness demanded by the Law, continued until its finality of completion, whence the Victor proclaimed for all, "TETELESTAI!"

So, ER8 and CH, that is what I propose that the issue of the water in unity with The Spirit, as a witness of the Deity of Jesus, The Christ, is all about.