An Unsettling New Theory: There Is No Swing Voter

Politico ^ | February 6, 2020 | David Freelander

[Rockingham]

Her theory is an elaboration of an insight that is now largely mainstream political science and psychology: adults tend to be consistent in their values and views over a lifetime. From cars to breakfast cereal to laundry detergent to political parties and most everything else, people tend to stick with their initial favorite.

The key to general elections thus becomes mostly about who is registered to vote and who actually shows up to vote. This forces campaigns to direct their attention to voter registration and mobilization. That is partly why the news media and the Democrats have kept their people so stirred up and hostile to Trump. It helps keep them slavering like Pavlov's dogs and eager to vote for Democratic candidates against Trump and the GOP.

Nevertheless, even when social science forecasting models mostly work, they do not always work and cannot work forever. Eventually, adverse events or someone clever figures out how to crack or better the model. And even settled brand loyalties can wear out. Raised on Fords and driving them for decades, like much of the country, I eventually switched to better-running Japanese models.

If Trump and the GOP this year win a large enough new slice of the Black and Hispanic electorate, they will accrue new strength to the GOP coalition. The forecasting models will then be revised and political analysts will talk of how Trump's MAGA coalition is likely to run the country for the next generation.

[Teacher317]

“If you want to win the election, you have to be able to frame your candidacy in a way that reminds voters that Trump is an abnormality that must be excised,” she said.

That's an unbiased pollster. Ahem.

[smvoice]

Let the dims celebrate this news. And let them stay home on election day, "knowing" they have this in the bag 🍿. And let them be found curled up in a fetal position in corners all across the country election night.

[Diana in Wisconsin]

“The forecasting models will then be revised and political analysts will talk of how Trump’s MAGA coalition is likely to run the country for the next generation.”

I sure hope so! America NEEDS to keep going in this wonderful, successful, anti-Communist direction!

[Rockingham]

Against adverse political demographics, the essential strategy is to make a strong case for your candidates and their policies as more in tune with the country's interest. In the 1980s, Thatcher and Reagan both won in that manner against entrenched Leftist political establishments. The lesson that their successors neglected, Trump took to heart: worthy ideas and energetic campaigns can persuade voters to break away from their accustomed political loyalties.

[Diana in Wisconsin]

“The lesson that their successors neglected, Trump took to heart: worthy ideas and energetic campaigns can persuade voters to break away from their accustomed political loyalties.”

Amen, Amen, AMEN!

[Rockingham]

The default GOP campaign message is resume and good character, with a light dusting of standard GOP issues. When the GOP is in charge, business interests are serviced and protected, which mostly (but not always) works out for the best. If nothing else, the Democrats and their crazies and crazy ideas are kept out of power.

The fundamental problem for the GOP is that their standard campaign message, candidate choices, and policies in office do not work well in changing voter preference. That is what made Trump so different and effective. He was a success in business and entertainment, but he was not the standard bland and tightly programmed GOP candidate. He actually advocated issues that voters cared about and did so with energy and passion.

p Even with Trump heading toward reelection this year, it remains to be seen though if the GOP will change and become Trumpy enough to win new adherents. If not, the GOP will find itself in a hard way as adverse political demographics take hold.

[dead]

A good ticket-mate would be a person of color like Stacey Abrams She is grossly unappealing, too much so to ever win a national office.

She was mean to Rerun when she used to be a waitress.

[x]

I think the real swing voters this year will be Blacks.

I doubt it. Party loyalties run deep, and the African-Americans who are most likely to vote are the one's most likely to be committed to the party. Also, if Democrats put an African-American on the ticket, it's bound to help them this time.

It's to be expected, though, that the Black turnout will be lower than it was in 2008 or 2012. Hillary couldn't get as many Black voters to go to the polls for her as went for Obama, and that did her in. It will be similar this time.