Posted on 03/16/2020 1:22:28 PM PDT by nickcarraway
According to a number of cognitive scientists, mankind uses its unique ability to reason primarily for justifying pre-held convictions, rather than for forming convictions. It is of critical importance for strategists to understand and acknowledge this human tendency, as it causes one to easily fall prey to a number of cognitive biases, which prevent one from seeing things how they really are, and more important for the strategist, how they are likely to become.
One of the most famous cognitive biases is confirmation bias. As we prefer to be proven correct, we naturally incline towards information that confirms our views and try to ignore or reason away information that does not.
This tendency was on full display before, during and after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. At that time most analysts were continuously behind the facts, consequently underestimating what would happen next, because reality went against ideas and conviction that had become loved in the financial community, such as the perfect market theory and the idea that through derivates risks could be managed away. For most financial strategists, it was simply too painful for many to acknowledge these ideas were incorrect (or at a minimum: contained serious flaws), even though the evidence was there, which would eventually lead Queen Elizabeth to ask them “Why did no one see this coming?”. Of course, not everyone didn’t see it coming. Those who were able to manage their confirmation bias either made a lot of money or became famous…
Now that the world is battling another unprecedented crisis in the coronavirus, the biggest risk for energy strategists is to fall prey to cognitive biases, in which case their forecasts would be about what they would like to see happen, rather than about what is likely to happen. This article is an attempt at
(Excerpt) Read more at oilprice.com ...
Hope the airlines and cruise lines are stocking up.
The great 90’s again where you could fill your tank for 10 bucks. Gas was around 90 cents a gallon. Love to go back to that.
Wholesale gasoline is currently 30 cents less than ethanol.
Trump should issue an executive order to allow refiners to eliminate ethanol from the gasoline during this period.
Not going to happen, Federal and State taxes make up at least 36 cents a gallon ...
Nah obama said the economy is booming only if gas is 4 dollars a gallon.
I recall a cover story in the late 90’s from: The Economist: $5.00 Oil
They apologized for ‘getting it SO incorrect’ within the next 12 months.
Investing advise:
1) Sell the rumor, buy the fact.
2) Sheep will be shorn and lambs will be fleeced.
3) It’s NOT the news, it’s how the market react to the news.
Keep these three things in mind over the next few months...
“Be prosperous, you will...” ( attributed to a small greenish investor from the future).
IIRC the lowest I paid was in February 1999 and gas was 88.9 cents per gallon.
It only lasted for a week or two, but it was great.
Election year. Trump doesn't want to piss off farmers in Iowa, Kansas, Missouri etc. and others who would be affected, and Biden would promise to put ethanol back in the mix. In the long term, getting rid of ethanol would make sense.
I don’t think there are any producers who can sustain $10/bbl. Not even Saudi Arabia. Therefore, I really don’t think we’ll see $10/bbl oil.
Rock bottom for me was 27.5c/gal in Tampa, long before 99
Even though Saudia Arabia gets it out of the ground cheaper, they can afford it less than other nations. They have $84/barrel already allocated.
I’d love to see $10 a barrel oil...IF it didn’t harm US producers.
According to Howie Carr,a great Boston talk host,Massachusetts is on the verge of increasing gas taxes by about 30 cents a gallon.
I’ve got you both beat, $0.10.
I’d prefer to be too young to have had that in my life, so maybe you’ve got me beat.
“ napscoordinator
> The great 90’s again where you could fill your tank for 10 bucks. Gas was around 90 cents a gallon. Love to go back to that.”
They’re already stacking rigs out in the Permian Basin. If oil drops below $20 per barrel that whole region will be deserted.
Oil is a business of crashes and booms. Anyoe who doesn’t like that shouldn’t be in the business.
24 or 25 dollar oil looks to me to be the bottom. But that won’t stay.
Oil is suffering the supply and demand rout. The Saudis and Russia plus Iran and other oil producers feed their nation states with oil revenue. There’s considerable pressure to get back to 50 oil. The American frackers are the target. Trump is monitoring them, and now has a green light to shuffle cash to them, so they don’t disappear. Trump took great delight in telling the world of our independence because of frackers
Issuing 50, 75 and 100 year bonds for the entire 22 T national debt will slice our interest expense alot, so the cash is there to keep frackers fracking.
I feel a great comfort hearing it said we are not dependent on anyone for our energy needs
$10 oil would kill our domestic energy industry.
I’d rather pay $2.50/gal and be energy independent.
There’s a visceral satisfaction in raising a national middle finger to the sand maggots.
Oil is a business of crashes and booms. Anyoe who doesn’t like that shouldn’t be in the business.
Or buy a house in Houston
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