What We Can Learn from Coronavirus Per Capita Death Rates

National Review ^ | May 21, 2020 | DAN MCLAUGHLIN

[CheshireTheCat]

The main takeaway from the massive disparities in death rates so far is their regional patterns. Six months into the global coronavirus pandemic, and more than two months into the widespread lockdowns of American public life, we have lots and lots of data. But what have we learned? The hard data we have today remains flawed, and it can tell us a lot more about the “where” of the pandemic than the “why.” But just knowing the “where” is a start. One of the chief lessons we can take is the difficulty of comparing very different regions of the world. America isn’t South Korea or New Zealand, and never could have been. Another is quite how uniquely bad the situation in the New York metro area has been...

[CheshireTheCat]

Four of the top five areas are in the US, specifically the Northeast.

Why? JFK, Newark, and Logan?

[Robert A Cook PE]

SEIU union workers in fecally-contaminated old folks homes, rest homes, hospices, senior citizen locked up retirement homes.

Hand-to-waste-to-hand-to-mouth/eye/throat. Hours or days in dirty sheets, diapers , seats, and tables.

[Ouchthatonehurt]

Need the executive summary.

[seastay]

When policies pay 10s of thousands of dollars per anybody who has the virus regardless if the cause of death had other more prominent factors that don’t pay out as much, its really hard to draw any conclusions over which region does better than the other, min to max one over the other is not that great.

The fact that none of these regions are showing 50 times over the other , when we are told lock-down and masks reduced deaths by 1/50th . For this to be the case regions with no Lock-downs should be 50 times higher,,and we don't see that .., This should be the takeaway.

[Fungi]

What we are supposed to have learned: fiat unconstitutional laws made by any governor are just that—unconstitutional. We have learned nothing.

[ifinnegan]

And add the subway.

[absalom01]

Or a biological weapon designed to target certain genetic characteristics.

Looking more likely all the time.

[Jane Long]

Targeting the retirees/pensioners?

[SoCalCynic]

Don’t forget the transfer of COVID19 patients into the nursing homes. Haven’t looked at state policies on COVID19 patients into nursing homes, but off the top of my head - NY, NJ, PA, MI, VA

[x_plus_one]

In Other News Today...

Breakthrough Drug: Ivermectin Shows 'Astounding' Results Against Coronavirus
https://www.newsmax.com/us/ivermectin-drug-virus/2020/05/22/id/968688/

What are the ingredients in Tri Heart plus?
Tri-Heart Plus contains two active ingredients: ivermectin, which interferes with the parasite's nerve transmission, causing paralysis and death of the immature heartworms (larvae), and Pyrantel pamoate, which also interferes with the parasite's nerve transmission, causes paralysis and death of intestinal worms.

Works for me...

[DoodleBob]

I want to know what is his FR nick...plagiarist...DoughtyOne and I have been doing this for a while.

Here is my latest installment of the updated tracking of size- and time-adjusted COVID-19 deaths at the state and national level. For those new to the data, I standardize each municipality's cumulative COVID-19 fatality count per GitHub by its population, then multiply the resulting quotient by the US' population of 329MM to put everyone on a common/US scale. I then index each municipality's time-series to Day 1, where their size-adjusted fatality count is right before it breaches 1,000 people. This corrects for what I call the "Golf Problem" where broadcasts of the Masters etc have to show not only each golfer's score, but which hole they're at. I also list the Day 1 date and the population for reference. I've posted the history back to Day 1 on my About page.

Note for the US as nation, that Day 1 is March 25, which means Day 58 is May 21 for that row of data. You can do the math for the other municipalities to find out what Day XX means for them in calendar times; as a general rule, the last actual data point is the freshest date, but on a Golf timeline it gives each municipality's score as of the "58th hole."

The sort order is Day 58 for the international table. For the states' data, I sort by Day 51 which generally keeps the relative ranking steady for later days, most notably for the states with higher than national fatality totals.

The relative ranking at the international level hasn't changed in weeks - the last change was Sweden eclipsing Ireland. For what it's worth, I disagree with the NR article's author in mixing and matching country and US city rankings; it is an apples-to-oranges assessment as the municipality level isn't the same. That is, Stockholm is to Sweden what NY is the the US as London is to the UK. Comparing NY to Sweden is bad analysis, but I've come to expect as much over the past few months.

Stateside, for Day 58 the ranking of municipalities adjusted fatalities higher than the US as a whole remains unchanged over the past few weeks: New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, District of Columbia, Louisiana, and Michigan, respectively. Rhode Island, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Illinois and Delaware are the next hottest respectively on the basis of Day 52.

Pray for everyone impacted: the dead, the infected, and the unemployed. And let's open up the country.

Country	Date of Day 1=day priot to hitting 1,000+ population-adjusted deaths	Population	Day 52	Day 53	Day 54	Day 55	Day 56	Day 57	Day 58	Day 59	Day 60	Day 61
San Marino	3/3/20	33,574	392,633	392,633	392,633	402,449	402,449	402,449	402,449	402,449	402,449	402,449
Belgium	3/19/20	11,524,454	245,385	247,529	248,988	250,532	252,877	254,593	256,194	257,509	258,853	259,654
Andorra	3/21/20	77,543	203,999	203,999	208,249	208,249	208,249	216,749	216,749	216,749	216,749	216,749
Spain	3/13/20	47,100,396	176,769	177,917	179,211	180,919	182,409	184,011	185,264	186,264	187,125	188,356
United Kingdom	3/20/20	66,435,550	158,390	159,437	162,552	165,007	167,136	169,045	171,367	172,210	173,004	175,712
Italy	3/5/20	60,243,406	144,331	145,754	147,575	149,665	151,432	152,991	154,463	157,056	158,007	159,074
France	3/18/20	67,076,000	128,887	129,280	129,624	130,917	132,626	133,034	134,759	135,270	135,270	138,114
Sweden	3/23/20	10,333,456	110,347	112,547	116,279	117,172	117,331	117,937	119,372	122,179	123,455	-
Ireland	3/25/20	4,921,500	101,649	102,654	103,323	103,591	104,529	105,198	106,002	-	-	-
Netherlands	3/17/20	17,451,031	100,202	101,543	102,751	103,091	103,393	104,413	105,395	105,924	106,925	107,435
United States	3/25/20	329,556,365	87,530	88,754	89,562	90,347	91,921	93,439	94,702	-	-	-
Switzerland	3/16/20	8,586,550	69,277	69,469	69,968	70,236	70,352	70,812	71,656	71,772	71,848	72,079
Luxembourg	3/17/20	613,894	53,683	53,683	54,220	54,220	54,220	54,757	55,293	55,293	55,830	55,830
Macedonia	3/24/20	679,600	46,068	47,038	47,523	48,978	50,432	51,402	53,342	53,827	-	-
Portugal	3/23/20	10,276,617	37,681	37,969	38,162	38,578	39,060	39,476	39,990	40,503	40,952	-
Germany	3/25/20	83,149,300	31,299	31,462	31,557	31,719	32,028	32,278	32,512	-	-	-
Denmark	3/22/20	5,822,763	29,827	30,167	30,393	30,393	30,733	30,959	31,016	31,185	31,355	31,751
Iran	3/9/20	83,331,064	23,559	23,839	24,089	24,346	24,532	24,824	25,073	25,382	25,651	25,868
Austria	3/23/20	8,902,600	23,099	23,173	23,247	23,284	23,284	23,284	23,395	23,432	23,432	-
Iceland	3/23/20	364,260	9,047	9,047	9,047	9,047	9,047	9,047	9,047	9,047	9,047	-

Municipality	Date of Day 1 = day prior to breaching size-adj 1,000 COVID19 fatalities	Population	Day 52	Day 53	Day 54	Day 55	Day 56	Day 57	Day 58	Day 59	Day 60	Day 61
New York	3/19/20	19,795,791	442,565	446,128	449,541	454,185	456,949	459,762	462,060	465,356	468,935	471,166
New Jersey	3/23/20	8,958,013	356,927	365,903	372,967	377,050	380,987	383,893	389,448	395,371	398,903	404,127
Connecticut	3/23/20	3,590,886	286,799	295,426	301,483	306,439	312,772	316,535	318,646	323,877	328,741	333,789
Massachusetts	3/25/20	6,794,422	271,234	276,715	281,177	284,330	288,017	294,225	298,202	302,083	-	-
District of Columbia	3/24/20	672,228	175,508	180,410	183,842	187,764	192,176	196,098	199,530	201,981	204,922	-
Rhode Island	3/29/20	1,056,298	165,980	167,852	173,467	180,643	-	-	-	-	-	-
Louisiana	3/20/20	4,670,724	161,295	162,848	165,599	167,998	170,538	172,726	174,913	175,760	180,840	182,110
Michigan	3/24/20	9,922,576	158,990	160,252	162,078	162,444	163,241	166,629	168,057	170,348	171,312	-
Maryland	3/31/20	6,006,401	118,459	121,093	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Pennsylvania	3/28/20	12,802,503	117,382	120,342	123,405	125,799	128,965	-	-	-	-	-
Illinois	3/27/20	12,859,995	107,580	109,092	112,731	116,524	118,753	120,829	-	-	-	-
Delaware	3/27/20	945,934	101,034	103,473	105,911	108,002	110,440	112,182	-	-	-	-
United States	3/25/20	329,556,365	87,530	88,754	89,562	90,347	91,921	93,439	94,702	-	-	-
Indiana	3/26/20	6,619,680	86,675	87,172	87,869	90,807	92,798	95,237	96,631	-	-	-
Colorado	3/24/20	5,456,574	65,892	69,456	71,992	73,381	73,925	75,918	78,455	79,119	79,965	-
Mississippi	3/27/20	2,992,333	57,380	58,151	61,014	62,776	63,877	65,529	-	-	-	-
New Hampshire	4/1/20	1,330,608	50,525	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Minnesota	3/31/20	5,489,594	49,107	51,088	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Ohio	3/29/20	11614373	48,805	50,536	52,096	53,118	-	-	-	-	-	-
Georgia	3/23/20	10,214,860	48,200	49,071	50,426	50,749	51,104	52,394	53,233	53,943	56,427	58,331
New Mexico	4/1/20	2,085,109	47,732	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Iowa	4/1/20	3,123,899	44,730	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Virginia	3/29/20	8,382,993	40,924	42,222	43,204	44,659	-	-	-	-	-	-
Nevada	3/24/20	2,890,845	38,646	39,330	39,786	39,900	41,496	42,522	43,092	43,434	44,004	-
Missouri	4/1/20	6,083,672	36,674	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Washington	3/8/20	7,170,351	36,401	36,999	37,780	38,102	38,285	38,607	38,883	39,664	40,492	41,503
Arizona	3/30/20	6,828,065	36,054	36,826	37,405	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Alabama	3/31/20	4,858,979	35,879	36,693	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Florida	3/29/20	20,271,272	33,344	34,059	34,839	35,604	-	-	-	-	-	-
Kentucky	3/30/20	4,425,092	28,375	29,268	29,120	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Vermont	3/18/20	626,042	27,900	27,900	27,900	27,900	27,900	27,900	27,900	27,900	27,900	28,426
California	3/27/20	39,144,818	27,698	27,968	28,809	29,584	30,510	30,864	-	-	-	-
Wisconsin	3/29/20	5,771,337	26,667	27,466	27,809	28,323	-	-	-	-	-	-
South Carolina	3/27/20	4,896,146	25,914	26,318	26,856	27,395	28,001	28,203	-	-	-	-
Nebraska	4/1/20	1,896,190	25,548	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Oklahoma	3/27/20	3,911,338	24,266	24,266	24,771	25,193	25,614	25,867	-	-	-	-
Kansas	3/29/20	2,911,641	21,845	22,298	22,524	23,203	-	-	-	-	-	-
North Dakota	3/29/20	756,927	19,592	21,334	22,205	22,640	-	-	-	-	-	-
Maine	3/30/20	1,329,328	18,098	18,098	18,593	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Tennessee	3/31/20	6,600,299	15,628	15,728	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Idaho	3/28/20	1,654,930	14,736	15,333	15,333	15,333	15,732	-	-	-	-	-
Arkansas	3/31/20	2,978,204	12,172	12,504	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Puerto Rico	4/1/20	3,680,058	11,284	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Oregon	3/27/20	4,028,977	11,206	11,288	11,452	11,779	11,860	12,024	-	-	-	-
Montana	3/29/20	1,032,949	5,105	5,105	5,105	5,105	-	-	-	-	-	-

[PA Engineer]

Thanks for the ping. The article on regional variation is very compelling with the available data. Also thanks for your work.

[MAGAthon]

22 May: Conservative Review: The CDC confirms remarkably low coronavirus death rate. Where is the media?
by Daniel Horowitz
Most people are more likely to wind up six feet under because of almost anything else under the sun other than COVID-19...

We destroyed our entire country and suspended democracy all for a lie, and these people perpetrated the unscientific degree of panic. Will they ever admit the grave consequences of their error?
https://www.conservativereview.com/news/horowitz-cdc-confirms-remarkably-low-coronavirus-death-rate-media/

[rfp1234]

Stay away from the Republic of San Marino, try the Faeroe Islands instead.

[rfp1234]

In any country where millions of functional illiterates and innumerates can vote, public policy is hijacked by junk science. We are no exception.

[Big Red Badger]

I have surmised
That FreeMen
Should Not be
Locked down.

[nonliberal]

On the contrary, we’ve learned a lot. People will tolerate being arbitrarily deprived of their rights.

[GOPJ]

The main takeaway from the massive disparities in death rates so far is their regional patterns.

It looks to me like the the virus was spread intentionally to areas the Chinese and Iranians thought would cause the most damage... or to areas like Italy - areas the Chinese felt should belong to them at some future date.

[elbook]

.

Don’t look to the fraudulent leftist media for any Truth - that is a path of Folly.

.

Simply TRUST THEM TO LIE TO FURTHER THEIR POISONOUS AGENDA.

BOYCOTT THEM.

.