RE: His model has been correct since 1996 on predicting the popular vote.
The article did not say whether or not he predicted Trump’s victory in the 2016 POPULAR vote ( because Trump DID NOT WIN IT ).
They are saying if the employment numbers continue the way they are we will be back at 5% unemployment by the election
right now, the D’s have self-destructed by their concerted efforts to destroy America
voters aren’t liking the D attacks one bit
(anything could change by November, but the D’s show no signs of reform so we are betting PDJT wins and wins big)
“Norpoth made the prediction in March”
A lot has changed since then. I’m guessing that we are in for a continued atypical ride between now and the election.
The only constant is change.
Don’t think so.
At this moment, the stock market is betting on a DJT victory. No other way to explain what is happening.
Now those guys may not always be the smart money, but when trillions of dollars are betting one way, only a fool would bet the other way.
If Joementia wins, look for an economic disaster.
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Now as far as fraud and mail-in ballots go, the electoral college firewalls the fraud. If all the blue states allow mail in fraud all that means is a change in the popular vote.
Biden can get 150% of the popular vote in CA, NY, OR, HI, etc. and still not win. In fact, I hope he does get 150% because it might cause a change to secure, in person ballots.
This is nice, but only votes count, not models.
Get out and vote.
His model has been success for for a quarter of a century.
Go out and vote, folks. Polls and predictions mean nothing. Only election day counts.
JoMa
Keep America Great and out of the filthy Gropin’ hands of Biden.
I have Trump holding every state he won in 2016, adding NH and MN.
But Demented Perv Biteme could indeed bump this up by 20 or more EVs.
Take a state like VA. Trump lost by 212,000 votes. He doesn’t need to take 212,000 more votes to win, only 107,000. And he doesn’t need all those DemoKKKrats to flip, merely for some combination of flips and stay-at-homes to win.
Do you think that the gun issues by “Comfortable” Ralph Northam have flipped 107,000? Or that disaffected blacks, who see the DemoKKKrats destroying their communities, may either switch or stay at home?
For four years black approval of Trump has moved between 15% and 28%. That’s anywhere from 7% to 20% more than the share of black vote he got in 2016.I, for one, think he will easily beat 8%, ending up around 11-12% and with ANOTHER 3-5% staying home (i.e., 1/2 vote each, or 12.5% to 14.5% “net” vote).