I think there is a decent chance that the US will break into smaller pieces. But I don’t see Afghanistan being a catalyst for that. We’re just heading there anyway.
But I do see this pattern:
USSR went to Afghanistan, had a heavy hand, the UN and everybody made some noise, but allowed the Soviets to do their thing. But they failed and ran away.
USA went to Afghanistan, spent 20 years trying to re-shape it and not everybody thought it was OK, but they let us do our thing. But we failed and ran away.
Watch China. They will move in, and they won’t mess around. Remember the Uighurs? China will have a heavy hand, they will settle that place down, move about a million people into the country and really transform it. And what will the world say? It’s OK for Russia? It’s OK for America? But China better knock it off? No. China will have a very free hand in Afghanistan, and they will have more luck than anyone else.
I think there is a decent chance that the US will break into smaller pieces.
I agree. This is a huge country. We have folks from New York City telling guys in Waco, Texas how to live their lives. I do not see our current political system sustainable. But what will happen? Hard to say. Ultimately, I think we'll see states like Florida and Texas become their own countries.
Isn’t “The Man Who Would Be King” set in Afghanistan?
China doesn’t need luck. They get to make their own rules for something like this.
Just makes one wonder if China will go after Taiwan, or Afghanistan, first? And what will India do?
Hmmmm .....
China has the advantage of not giving a damn what anyone else thinks about their behavior. They have the added advantage of the world not caring what happens in Afghanistan, too.
China will have a direct route for Iranian oil. Hmmmm
Agree with the assessment in Post 14.
And Afghanistan shows we need a new Pres, Secretary of State, Sec Def and about top 4 layers of military leadership.
Ever hear of the Opium Wars? Consider what happens to China when their contact with Afghanistan leads to direct contact with the world’s leading supplier of poppies and semi-refined opium. A Chinese empire fell due to the Western Opium trade. Heck, now there won’t even be a western middleman.