Posted on 04/26/2022 6:58:38 PM PDT by blam
In the last several weeks, farmers in the Northern Plains have been battered by blizzards, winter storms, high winds, and extreme flooding. These weather phenomena have delayed farmers from plantings in high-producing crop regions. Every week plantings are delayed, the harvest yield shrinks, and this comes at a precarious time as the global food supply chain is fracturing.
Private weather forecasters and ag specialist BAMWX warned about delayed plantings across the Northern Plains to Midwest to the Ohio Valley. Some farmers might not be able to plant until at least May as widespread above-average moisture, and widespread well below average temperatures inhibit farmers from working their fields.
BAMWX shows the most above-average precipitation occurred in The Dakotas.
Much of the Northern Plains to Midwest to the Ohio Valley experienced below-average temperatures.
BAMWX’s chief meteorologist Kirk Hinz provides a weather model looking out two weeks and shows more of the same: below-average temperatures and higher precipitation. The risk is that delayed plantings could extend well into the first half of May.
Spring has so far been filled with chaos and uncertainties for American farmers. Many cannot work in their fields because tractors would get stuck, fields are underwater, and saturated soils make for a bad growing environment. Also, cold weather disrupts plant nutrient intake and can damage seedlings very early in the growing cycle, which may cause premature death.
Given this uncertainty from the weather and how America’s food supply chain could be at risk. CBoT trader Tommy Grisafi (also risk advisor at commodity trading firm Advance Trading Inc), with ag clients throughout The Dakotas, provided this warning of what’s happening on the ground:
“As I sit in my office in Mayville, North Dakota, I’m starting to wonder how the Upper Midwest farmer will get all the crops planted in a timely fashion. Below average temps are forecasted for the next ten days; combine that with above-average snow and rainfall, which only means more delayed plantings.
“Upper Midwest farmers are running out of time as prevent plant dates could soon be triggered. North Dakota’s first prevent plant date is May 25th for certain parts of the state — this will mean farmers will file a prevented planting claim on their crop insurance and not plant.”
One significant reason plantings are delayed in North Dakota is flooding.
Welcome to North Dakota #flood2022 pic.twitter.com/DYrWqoHa4G
— AGBULL (@AgBullMedia) April 24, 2022
Grisafi said, “North Dakota, Montana, and Canada are famous for growing specialty crops.”
“We often forget how these products are in everyday foods we consume. The Ukraine war was like throwing gas on an already hot fire. The Great drought of 2021 depleted supplies. The world is now dependent on the Northern hemisphere for major food needs. The US must grow record crops just to meet average demand. If not, this could add to the biblical food shortage coming down the pipe,” he said.
Grisafi has spent three decades on the CBoT and said fertilizer shortages plus delayed plantings suggest harvests could be severely impacted. “If only our government had a strategic fertilizer reserve,” he said.
He is in contact with hundreds of North Dakota farmers and various end-users, indicating many of these folks “will have trouble sleeping at night” because of the agricultural crisis emerging.
Here’s an aerial shot of one of Grisafi’s clients. The fields are completely flooded.
Grisafi’s Ag Bull podcast has recently stated, “planting delays and production problems in the US are moving markets.” Last month, we cautioned that the mainstream media fails to address how the US is careening towards a food crisis.
I expect high prices but shortages?
I called Costco today about the rumours of limits on the amount of dry dog food that could be bought at one time. I was told that there is a one bag limit on one brand (only) of dog food and that all others are well stocked and you can buy all you want.
The area in blue is where the sky fell! Honest Injun !
Well, if there are no food shortages, they will make sure there are some!
Prepper ping
True words.
Biden upped the ethanol going into gas up to 15%. I believe his speech on the subject was today.
‘Shortages’ have been in play for quite awhile.
If anything, this will compound or exacerbate such.
Food shortages with increasing inflation is not good moving forward and especially is not good for any political party in power.
so let me get this straight here from what I recall seeing around here.
Puppet says in January there will be shortages.
22 processing plants in the us, involved in various stages of the farm to table supply chain have been damaged.
Floods in Dakotas, Bad orange crops in Florida. Egg shortages due to a bird flu.
What else did I miss?
What is missing? Nothing really except that its all part of the/a plan?
Omg of course the red river floods this time of year, this is so over the top bs
In other news, global warming is creating a drought that will kill crops and may cause food shortages.
dont the dakotas flood most years?
I just moved up to Wyoming near Sundance and it’s been cold and has snowed quite a bit. The weather is psychotic but the people are not lefty loons.
I listen to Tommy and Scott Shellady, the cow guy. Reliable sources
Remember the Red River Flood in Grand Forks, ND 25 years ago? Not only was Grand Forks flooded - it was on FIRE at the same time! Quite the feat.
I don’t remember starving 25 years ago...
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/north-dakota-celebrates-25-years-110216423.html
dont the dakotas flood most years?
Its down hill to the north for the Red River (which is a very small percentage of the Dakotas). The flooding generally comes from the spring snow melt. If there is snow, it tends to melt first in the south and gets dammed up with the snow and ice farther north. This seems to happen often, but not every year.
This year there was late snow made it to wet and cold to plant the spring crops elsewhere (other than the flooded river bottoms).
I re ember seeing g photos of one of the Dakotas with snow piled up as high as the power lines, almost to the top of the poles. Course that was an exceptional year, and most likely a resu,t of high winds and drifting too. But they do tend to get plasterd with snow there. Watching the Alaska gold rush show, “Dakota Fred “ had to go home because flooding was so bad that his house got flooded out, and his wife was there contending with it.
The brand of dry dog food our pup eats has gone up 40% in price since the first of the year.
“Remember the Red River Flood in Grand Forks, ND 25 years ago? Not only was Grand Forks flooded - it was on FIRE at the same time! Quite the feat. I don’t remember starving 25 years ago...”
Yeah but with the Ukraine crop estimated to be 20% lower we are doomed. REEEEEE!
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