Posted on 10/04/2022 8:14:51 PM PDT by Reeses
I have been attempting for several days to collect my thoughts on the Russo-Ukrainian War and condense them into another analysis piece, but my efforts were consistently frustrated by the war’s stubborn refusal to sit still. After a slow, attritional grind for much of the summer, events have begun to accelerate, calling to mind a famous quip from Vladimir Lenin: “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.”
This has been one of those weeks. It began with the commencement of referenda in four former Ukrainian oblasts to determine whether or not to join the Russian Federation, accompanied by Putin’s announcement that reservists would be called up to augment the force deployment in Ukraine. Further excitement bubbled up from the Baltic seabed with the mysterious destruction of the Nordstream pipelines. Nuclear rumors circulate, and all the while the war on the ground continues.
In all, it is clear that we are currently in the transitional period towards a new phase of the war, with higher Russian force deployment, expanded rules of engagement, and greater intensity looming. Season 2 of the Special Military Operation looms, and with it the Winter of Yuri.
...
Winter weather actually favors a Russian offensive for multiple reasons. One of the paradoxes of military operations is that freezing weather actually enhances mobility - vehicles can get stuck in mud, but not on frozen ground. From 1941-43, German troops celebrated the arrival of spring, because the thaw promised to bog the Red Army down in mud and slow their momentum. The winter death of foliage also reduces the cover available to troops in a defensive posture. And, of course, cold weather favors the side with more reliable access to energy.
(Excerpt) Read more at bigserge.substack.com ...
"Don't underestimate Joe's ability to (expletive) things up" - Bronco Bama
“...Bronco Bama...”
LOL.
Ya gotta luv the kid who allegedly came up with that moniker.
Pompous vacuity on a blog is not news.
war, long periods of boredom punctuated with terror
Christen Science Monitor: Four-year-old Abigael Evans went viral as Bronco Bama Girl this week. Her mother captured her on video bursting into tears at one too many National Public Radio stories on the election: "I'm tired of Bronco Bama and Mitt Romney," she sobbed over the endless news coverage of the 2012 presidential election. NPR issued her an apology.
It will be impossible for the Russians to go on the offensive — unless they stop retreating.
Meanwhile on Russian state TV: grim predictions that Russia is at least two months away from even attempting to advance. Also, some surprising admissions about how unprepared they were and the magnitude of the losses they've experienced in Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/VXL05R7JpN— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) October 5, 2022
All the YELLOW (YELLOW) and ORANGE should be BLUE, and half the the RED is about to be BLUE.
And this is from September 29, that is, like, so before Lyman and Kherson this morning. < /S >
I disagree with the author about the advantage of Winter. With the fall of Liman. Russia’s main rail and road support has been severely retarded. Food, fuel and winter clothing will be in short supply.
Do you think the 300,000 new troops will get winter boots and gloves?
I predict a lot of black toes falling off in Dec and January.
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