History doesn’t repeat, but it does rhyme.
We aren’t going to see a perfect repeat of 2007 and the mortgage collapse and the recession that followed. But, one way or another, I think we will see a huge collapse. I’m sure some folks grasp the essentials already and are positioned to make money off it (as in “The Big Short” movie) but I’m just trying to sit tight and avoid vulnerabilities while I wait for a tsunami to show up somewhere.
“We aren’t going to see a perfect repeat of 2007 and the mortgage collapse and the recession that followed. But, one way or another, I think we will see a huge collapse.”
Nope, not even close.
Housing is in a shortage that has been building for ten years.
Sellers are taking their homes off the market because they don’t have to sell, they have equity and very low interest loans.
37% of homes have NO mortgage, an all-time high. That’s a big cushion for the market.
Custom builders have 2-year waiting lists for building new homes, have the orders, buyers have the land, are paying cash in many instances, and are just waiting for the labor to be available.
None of that adds up to a “huge collapse”.