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From this morning's Des Moines Register, a political column from the top political writer in the state. He truely understands Iowa politics.

Iowans comfy with Gephardt
By DAVID YEPSEN Register Political Columnist
11/09/2003

Democratic presidential candidate Dick Gephardt has been described as a "comfortable old pair of shoes" in Iowa - familiar and durable. After trying the latest fashion from New England, it seems many Iowa Democrats are grabbing their old Midwestern favorites again.

At least that's the conclusion from today's Iowa Poll showing the Missouri congressman overtaking the former Vermont governor among likely Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa. Gephardt, who won the Iowa caucuses in 1988, trailed Dean in an August poll of these Democrats.

The only good news for Dean in today's poll is that he still leads among the diehards, those zealous folks who say they'll most definitely show up on caucus night. They are driven a lot by their strong opposition to the war, and Dean is their champion. Dean's problem is that polls show more Democrats say the economy is the top issue, not the war. Gephardt's been getting a lot of union endorsements and the poll shows his support among labor households is increasing. Dean had been gnawing into that base.

(Which is why you should now look for Howard Dean to be praying for a blizzard on caucus night because it might discourage Gephardt's more marginal supporters from showing up. Something like that happened in 1972, when anti-Vietnam War activists braved winter storms to give George McGovern a strong second place showing against Ed Muskie. Gephardt can take comfort in knowing that Muskie did win that year, thanks to party regulars who showed up for him. Regulars are called regulars because they are, well, pretty regular in showing up for things like precinct caucuses.)

Today's Iowa Poll is the latest of several surveys indicating Dean's campaign has flattened out in Iowa. (Dean actually slipped three points since an August Iowa Poll, but that's margin-of-error stuff. It's too early to say he has peaked. Gephardt has gained six points, a figure outside the poll's 4.5 percent margin of error.)

What happened to Dean? Other candidates are catching up to his early start in Iowa. They have stepped up their attacks on him and are matching his angry rhetoric. They've also started airing television commercials and are picking at his inconsistencies. Dean also has come under greater scrutiny, and some days he doesn't wear too well under the strain.

Unlike Dean, Gephardt has been vetted in a national presidential campaign. There are no surprises in his closet or his archives. And after years on the national political stage, he's smart enough not to utter the first thing that comes to his mind. Doing that is one of the most refreshing things about Dean, but he's also discovering there can be a downside to popping off when there are dozens of TV cameras around.

Gephardt is doing well with seniors, who dominate caucuses. He may also be profiting from the more conservative Joseph Lieberman's departure from the race in Iowa. Previous polls of likely caucus-goers showed almost a third of Lieberman's supporters listed Gephardt as their second choice. Among all caucus-goers now, 16 percent list Gephardt as their No. 2 choice, more than any other candidate receives. (We've all learned to watch second-choice preferences since they indicate where caucus-goers might land if their favorite stumbles or isn't viable on caucus night.)

None of this is a prediction. The poll shows three-fourths of the likely caucus-goers remain undecided, and many will stay that way until the last day. While Dean is in a bit of a rough patch, his true-believing "Deaniac" friends can still win it for him here, something he'd dearly love because it would probably knock Gephardt from the race and widen his own lead over John Kerry in New Hampshire. A candidate who wins both Iowa and New Hampshire gets awfully hard to stop for the nomination.

Which is why so much is at stake in Iowa. It's why the shoving and (alleged) name-calling between a Dean spy and Gephardt aides at a recent Gephardt rally may just be a taste of things to come.

http://www.dmregister.com/opinion/stories/c5917686/22692566.html