Hillary Clinton 2004?

[Reader of news]

Many Freepers say Hillary Clinton will get the Democratic nomination in Boston due to no candidate will get enough delegates. Do you think this scenario is possible?

[theDentist]

No. She's waiting for 2008.

[rhombus]

I think this one is Ketchup boy's to hopefully lose. Perhaps Hillary will do more than Clark to ensure that happens.

[Graymatter]

Lots of folks seeing that. Heck, some see her running on the grassy knoll. I don't.

[traditional1]

Yes, because W looks beatable, and if Kerry would get in, she might not have a shot until 2012....she won't last that long.

Mainly, she is afraid of a Senate race against Giuliani or Pataki in 2006, and possible loss there, and second, the Klintoon's have their puppet Wesley Clark to split the Dem. Convention vote 3 ways to allow HRC to get the second ballot nomination.

[hobbes1]

I have been pointing this out for months now.


IF there is no candidate with a nominating Majority (63% of 3500 available delegates)


She could come out of the brokered convention with a bounce, and a short (12 weeks) campaign window.AND NO PRICE FOR LOSING



Consider....There were TWO northeastern liberals, and one Southern Candidate (edwierds) so who did the Clintons recruit on Short notice, A southern candidate....

No one with a clear Majority in any region....

and the compressed primary schedule, helps to keep the candidates from distinguishing themselves over time, keeping everything blurry....

[Lou L]

You make it sound like she would get the nomination by default. If it were to happen this year, it would be more dramatized, more "made-for-TV."

I would envision a scenario where the remaining candidates would reach a deadlock, with none of them having enough votes for the nomination. Hilary whether before or after this, would give some rousing speech. The speech will be about how the focus should be on all Democrats joining together to beat Bush (try not to laugh if she actually says anything about "beating Bush"), and not about knocking down other Democrats.

Whether she would actually ask for the nomination is up for debate; some delegation might just offer it, with the others falling in behind in choreographed fashion.

If she asks for the nomination, she'll have done so after already forming some "dream team" cabinet, strutting out Wesley Clark as her Sec Def, and the rest of the cabinet "looking like America." In any case, the makeup will try to assemble a team that makes her look less liberal, and more credible.

That's how I see it happening...anyone else?

[NonValueAdded]

Possible or probable? There are two different answers. It is certainly possible. Even if someone else is nominated at the convention, "stuff happens" and believe me the RATs learned a lesson from the New Jersey senatorial race. So ... possible? there are dozens of scenarios that allow for this to happen and a discussion of them probably isn't what you're aiming for.

I think it is probable. HRC knows her negatives and she also knows that the campaign for 2008 will last four years, starting the moment the '04 election results are in. I don't think she can stand that amount of scrutiny. I mentioned the NJ Lautenberg lesson being learned so let's look at another lesson unfolding before our very eyes ... the downfall of Dean and soon Clark is that the voters had the time to get to know them and don't like what they see. They were out there for too much time. Continued speeches and questions let them trip up, get off the script and let slip a glimpse of what they really are.

HRC needs a quick strike, a whirlwind campaign of limited duration that doesn't allow enough time for the people to see past the name and the carefully crafted persona. That means she runs in '04.

Let's look at the HRC as veep in '04 as her next logical step toward the prize. I don't think that will be acceptable to her unless she feels she'll be able to be the puppet-master and run things from the second seat. Wesley "Ripper" Clark was to be that puppet but fortunately we've been able to hear enough from him that he'll be gone after his losses in NH and SC.

Without control, she knows there is a chance that if the RATs pull off an upset and take the presidency in '04 that they'll screw it up enough to ensure a Republican lock on '08 and more. you have to figure that sooner or later there will be another attack on the homeland and this one will eclipse 9-11 by several orders of magnitude. An antiwar posture prior to that attack will guarantee the blame falls on the sitting administration. I don't think she wants to take that chance to be taken out before her turn at the presidency.

She wants it all and she knows that time is not on her side. Watch for a brokered convention or a Lautenberg style substitution shortly thereafter when the chosen candidate has an unfortunate accident, either a major gaffe or a walk in the park.

[theDentist]

On the other hand, she's still the undisputed Queen in Salem, Ma.

[Moosilauke]

She wants it all and she knows that time is not on her side.

That's the key--time is not on her side. Four years is a long time to campaign. Look what happened to Dean in just a few months. HRC can certainly not stand to be a focus of attention for very long without attracting a lot of embarrassing and incriminating questions. Plus a run against Giuliani will not be a walk in the park--all for a job she's not really interested in. Her run happens this year or it doesn't happen. That's not to say she's a shoo-in. Kerry may get lucky and sew up enough delegates to prevent a deadlock. Then again, he could get unlucky and require a Lautenberg-esq replacement!

[2rightwings]

Time certainly isn't on her side, although even with a 4 year campaign the liberal media will attempt to paint a mighty rosy picture of her. There seem to be a growing number of dems that aren't too happy with the klinton's control of the party through Terry Mcawful. Is it possible if she jumps in at the last minute there could be a dem defector that would try for a third party run? It would be nice to have a disgruntled spoiler.

[Caipirabob]

No. She's waiting for 2008.

Hillary will be 420 years old by 2008 (dog years.) I think 2004 is realistic for a Hillary "run".

[NonValueAdded]

Is it possible if she jumps in at the last minute there could be a dem defector that would try for a third party run?

Wouldn't there be a difference with the ability to qualify for the ballot? HRC would get the Democrat slot while the displaced candidate would have to mount a last-minute qualification signature drive unless it was too late to even do that. We're talking about "perfect storm" alignment here.