The polling wasn't any more inaccurate than, say, Zogby is today.
Posted on 10/23/2004 7:04:15 AM PDT by zwerni
ok - i just saw this hyped up expose' on a local news channel about how these polls are totally inaccurate because of the cell phone. they are claiming that kids between the ages of 18 and 30 use their cell phones exclusively and therefore cannot be polled by the traditional pollsters. And they drew a conclusion (as preposterous as this is) that the polls should be shifted by as much as 10 (yes that's ten) points in kerry's favor.
I have heard many comments about the cell phones not showing up in polling data but never heard this much of an impact. definitely seems like desparation (or a way to cover the huge voter fraud).
Ask Howard Dean about that.
And I live in Pennsylvania, fer gawd's sake.
Do you have a source article?
"Ask Howard Dean about that."
LOL! Arrrrggghhh!
"Security Moms for Bush" also use the cell phone!
And the answering machine at home.
Looks to me like the Democrats need some cheering up.
I've read a survey somewhere that people in the 18-39 YO age groups are voting more for President Bush. Does anyone have any info on that?
The polling wasn't any more inaccurate than, say, Zogby is today.
This was mentioned quote a few times yesterday on Fox News Channel.
I would suggest that most people who are actually DOING SOMETHING these days rely, for the most part, on a cell phone. And generally, the people DOING SOMETHING (such as, for a living) would fall more heavily to the Republican side. After working all day, the last thing a person will do is answer some polling phone call.
And I'm long past that 18-30 age group--and so are they.
30-year-old "kids"?
Being that you are a pessimist at heart it's understandable you would believe this.
A ten point swing in Kerry's favor would make it about even, as someone posted some poll internals yesterday on FR showing GWB with a ten point lead among 18-34 year old voters. The only group Kerry lead in was the over 65 crowd, and then only by 5 points.
Right now the media is desperately grabbing at anything that doesn't portend a Bush landslide or near-landslide.
Also, this is another example of the Democrats setting the stage to justify the results of their voter fraud campaign. The polls show Bush winning this thing. If the Dems are successful with the fraud, it will look somewhat suspicious on November 3, for the polls to have been so 'off'. So they are tossing out pre-emptive justifications.
Welcome to FR. Most of us never end up in poll data - we screen calls.
Um no. Any reputable pollster weights their polls to age, gender, etc. demographics (although they may not weight for party affliation). They extrapolate from the young people they *do* reach. This demographic weighting is required by NCPP guideines. See http://polipundit.com/index.php?p=4176 .
The question becomes, are cell phone users more liberal than those of the same age who stick with land lines?
I wonder why we are getting a lot of defeatest postings lately. I think it's the DUer trolls.
No offense, you're new, you'll learn :-)
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