Replies

At least in the southern half of the Mississippi, a large portion of the population in the Delta near the river is black. Blacks vote overwhelmingly Democrat. Up in Iowa and Wisconsin, I don't know what the reason is -- farmers who are heavily subsidized by Washington?

Upstream you have the old Scandoteutonic corn/hog belt. The Germans grown the corn, vote Republican, and live the good life. The Scandinavians raise pigs on that corn, vote Commie, and feel despondent all the time.

Is there some problem understanding this? You oughta' hear those guys moan and groan ~ 's all the time.

Yes. You got it. The Mississippi Delta (which extends from Louisiana clear to Illinois) is populated primarily by African-Americans, who are required by dictate of Jesse Jackson to vote Democrat, lest they be disenfranchised. This phenomenon also explains the smattering of blue counties throughout the South, including the "black belt" (so called because of the fertile soil, which in turn attracted plantations, which employed slaves, whose descendants still live there today).

Then there's Saint Louis. No questions there.

Move further north, and I believe that the Kerry bubble in Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota is a vestige of the Farm state Democrats of ages past. After all, Kerry ran under the Democrat Farmer Labor banner in Minnesota, a label that probably attracts its share of unwitting agriculturalists. Many of these counties contain small cities, much of their population consisting of unionized workers. This vestige is eroding gradually.

Scores (i.e., 8-0-2 for Alaska) are, beginning in 1968, the number of Presidential contests when the Republican won an absolute majority, the number of contests when the Democrat won an absolute majority, and the number of contests where neither candidate won an absolute majority. For example, Republicans won 8 elections in Alaska, Democrats none. In 1968, Nixon (R) won 45-43-12, and in 1992, Bush (R) won, 40-30-30; no candidate (or an independent candidate) captured a majority in either of these elections. (In 1992, the Republicans won no states with an absolute majority, and the Democrats captured only Arkansas and DC.)

Nationally, we're 5-1-4. And that one was only barely, when Jimmy Carter won 50.1% in 1976.

Iowa is 4-2-4. Oops, make that 5-2-3; Bush did make 50%, now leading 50-49-1.

Wisconsin is just 2-1-7, a truly perpetual "battleground state." The 1 was Michael Dukakis, illustrating the uphill road that the Bush campaign had in Wisconsin. That Bush Jr. (2004) beat Bush Sr. (1988) in Wisconsin seems to signify an erosion of Democratic strength here. This time, Bush is behind right now by 11,813, and he could close that gap with overseas military ballots.

Minnesota is a horrible 1-5-4, a liberal bastion dominated by Minneapolis, where Hubert Humphrey and Walter Mondale still loom large. Minnesota will erode our way in due time, but it will be a latecomer, like Arkansas in the South.