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FR Baseball thread..w/e 9/11..Close to crunch time; NL MVP?; Will we see another epic collapse?
one man's opinion.......

Posted on 09/12/2005 7:28:05 AM PDT by ken5050

Good Monday morning, Freeper Baseball fans. As exciting as last week was, this week looks even better. We should see our first division clinching this week, and a few more pretenders fall by the wayside...and we'll need a little diversion form the Roberts hearing this week..


TOPICS: Sports
KEYWORDS: baseball; mlb
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OK, as is our habit, let's review the standings...

NATIONAL LEAGUE

NL EAST: Braves lead the Marlins by 7.0, Phillies by 8.0

NL CENTRAL: Cards should make it official this week

NL WEST: Pods, by default. Nobody else made a move.

NL WILDCARD: Astros lead the Marlins by .5, Phillies by 1.5, Nats by 4.0, and Brewers, Cubs, and Metsies by 5.5. FYI, I only mentioned the last three because the Cubs and Brewers have been playing great ball of late..so we can give them a few props!!!..

AMERICAN LEAGUE

AL EAST: Red Sox lead the Yankees by 3.0

AL CENTRAL: White Sox lead the Indians by 5.5

AL WEST: Angels lead the A's by 2.0

AL WILDCARD: Indians lead the Yankees by 1.5, A's by 2.5

Where to start?

In the National League, only race really undecided is the Wildcard... 'Stros and Marlins play a four game series ( with some pretty good pitching match-ups) then the 'Stros go back to a suddenly very hot Brewer team..Phillies can't get their act together. I think this race goes down to the final weekend..and if all three stumble this week, you could see the Cubbies closing within a few games...Nats had come back from the dead..to their credit, but the terrible loss to the Braves just showed the deficiencies in their bullpen, and psychologically had to be a real crusher..

All the real excitement is in the American League, where all four races are in play..yup..you heard me..including the AL CENTRAL..

In the AL East, Yankees future may well be decided by the next three games against the dreaded D-Rays. A sweep is what they need..2 of 3 is the miminum..if they lose the series they can start reserving tee times for the first week in Oct.

In the AL CENTRAL, the once huge WhiteSox lead has shrunk to 5.5 games. Now, boys and girls, we will speak of the unspeakable..the 1964 collapse of the Phillies, leading the NL by 6.5 games with 12 left..they proceeded to lose the next ten, and lost the pennant to the Cardinals..if the White Sox implode, the collapse will, IMHO, rival the 1964 Phils.. Orlando Hernandez looked like he was pitching BP in the first inning yesterday, giving up 3 dingers, and just escaping a 4th. However, here's where it gets real interesting..The Tribe has 6 games left with the White Sox, but Chicago has beaten the Indians 10 of 13 so far this season...It could go either way.

In the AL WEST..it looks like Vlad and the A's have hit their stride..A's have a really tough week..the Indians and then the Red Sox, both on the road...Cleveland could put the A's out of the race by taking 3 of 4, and also put tremendous pressure on the Yankees as well..By the same token, you'd normally say, if you were the A's, that 3-4 on this upcoming road trip would be good, except it won't be..and injuries have really hurt the A's of late. The smart money here says that the A's are effectively out of both the AL WEST and the AL WILDCARD by this time next week..

In the individual award races, let's turn for a moment to perhaps the most interesting race of all, the NY MVP.

Here are the stats for the three contenders..

Pujols: .337BA, 39 HRs, 107 RBIs, probable Gold Glove
Lee: .341BA, 41 HRs, 99 RBIs,
Jones: .275BA, 49 HRs, 121 RBIs, definite Gold Gove winner

It's probably one of the closest races in years, and should go down to the wire...early in the season, Derreck Lee early on was all world, they'd all but conceded him the Triple Crown. and the Cubs were hot...His numbers are spectacular, but since the Cubs faded even though he continued to hit, that would, IMHO, detract from the MVP idea..IOW, he didn't make a difference. OTOH, the Cubbies are hot of late, and could make a run for the wildcard. If they get it, or even get back into the WC race these last weeks, it will be on Lee's bat, and that could give him a late surge.

Pujols has been spectacular at the plate, and also very consistant in the field. I think he might well get the Golden Glove as well. Here's the question in his case..if you're the BEST player on a very, VERY, VERY good team; does that make you the MVP???...IOW, would they have won without you, or even if you had a mediocre season? The Cards have romped without Scott Rollen, which gives some credence to the argument. OTOH, one could invoke the Karl Malone rule in this case. Malone finished 2nd numerous times behind Michael Jordan in the NBA MVP voting..so the one year that Jordan was out for the league, they gave it to Malone. So, since Bonds is out this season, should they give it to Pujols?

Jones, I think on balance, may deserve it most. The power numbers are staggering, and he carried the team while Chipper was out. His average is 60 points below the two others, and normally that would be the deal breaker, but his defense more than makes up for it.

I think that by season's end, any of the three could win it, or also finish third in the voting....It will be very close..

1 posted on 09/12/2005 7:28:06 AM PDT by ken5050
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To: ken5050

Ive already witnessed a collapse.


2 posted on 09/12/2005 7:29:27 AM PDT by cripplecreek (If you must obey your party, may your chains rest lightly upon your shoulders.)
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To: ken5050; Horatio Gates; cripplecreek; MikeinIraq; nutmeg; steve8714; hugoball; ElTianti; ...

Good Monday morning baseball ping...have at it..and if anyone wants on/off the ping list, please Freemail me..


3 posted on 09/12/2005 7:35:20 AM PDT by ken5050 (Ann Coulter needs to have children ASAP to pass on her gene pool....any volunteers?)
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To: Petronski

Special, mega Tribe double pingee, just for you......last night's game was a blast..


4 posted on 09/12/2005 7:36:57 AM PDT by ken5050 (Ann Coulter needs to have children ASAP to pass on her gene pool....any volunteers?)
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To: ken5050; SCALEMAN
Six teams still realistically in play--i.e., with 2 games of a playoff berth--in each league:

AL: Chicago, Boston, Los Angeles, Cleveland, plus New York and Oakland chasing

NL: St. Louis, Atlanta, San Diego, Houston, plus Florida and Philadelphia chasing

All other teams are at least 4 games out of a playoff spot.

NL only has the WC race. AL has the WC, as well as divisional lead races in the East and West. Even the once-insurmountable lead of the ChiSox has shrunk--but probably not enough for the hottest team in baseball, the Tribe, to overtake them.

5 posted on 09/12/2005 7:39:08 AM PDT by Charles Henrickson (Baseball fan)
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To: Molly Pitcher

Chief Wahoo ping.


6 posted on 09/12/2005 7:39:21 AM PDT by NeoCaveman ("Government is not the solution, it is the problem" - Ronald Reagan)
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To: ken5050; SCALEMAN
perhaps the most interesting race of all, the NY MVP.

A-Rod?

Ken, there is life outside NY. :-)

7 posted on 09/12/2005 7:41:53 AM PDT by Charles Henrickson (Midwesterner)
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To: ken5050

Pujols deserves the MVP. Unless Bonds hits 56 HRs in the last three weeks, ;)


8 posted on 09/12/2005 7:42:57 AM PDT by Mr. Jeeves ("Violence never settles anything." Genghis Khan, 1162-1227)
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To: cripplecreek
We can't see another "epic collapse". The Cubs are already out of it.

:-(

9 posted on 09/12/2005 7:43:47 AM PDT by LilDarlin (Being very feminine got me this far; it will get me the rest of the way, too!)
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To: ken5050; SCALEMAN
Pujols has been spectacular at the plate, and also very consistant in the field. I think he might well get the Golden Glove as well.

While Pujols has come a long way and has become a good glove man, I think Lee still is the better fielder at first.

10 posted on 09/12/2005 7:45:32 AM PDT by Charles Henrickson (Chicago native living in St. Louis)
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To: ken5050

Thanks for your work on this...


11 posted on 09/12/2005 7:46:32 AM PDT by misterrob
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To: ken5050
Amazing stat last night on ESPN2's broadcast of the Indians game: Teams that have 7-game winning streaks in Sep-Oct "always" make the playoffs.

Cleveland's win last night was the seventh in a row.


Go Tribe!

12 posted on 09/12/2005 7:46:52 AM PDT by Petronski (Cyborg is the greatest blessing I have ever known.)
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To: Charles Henrickson

Darn typo...and NOT a Freudian slip...


13 posted on 09/12/2005 7:49:13 AM PDT by ken5050 (Ann Coulter needs to have children ASAP to pass on her gene pool....any volunteers?)
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To: Petronski

But the Sox, before their latest tailspin, had a seven game winning streak of their own.


14 posted on 09/12/2005 7:51:01 AM PDT by Hegewisch Dupa
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To: misterrob

Thanks for the kind words...I enjoy it..a labor of love..what's nice is only having to do it once a week..the thread then carries itself..FYI, doing it has made me realize just how much we owe those really dedicated Freepers who do daily threads, and/or maintain ping lists..


15 posted on 09/12/2005 7:51:44 AM PDT by ken5050 (Ann Coulter needs to have children ASAP to pass on her gene pool....any volunteers?)
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To: Petronski

if you have the time..a little homework assignment for you...I mentioned the 6 remaining the Tribe have with the Pale Hose, and also the 10-3 record Chi has in the games played to date..can you pull up some stuff on those..? what explains the wide swing? were they close, or blow-outs?


16 posted on 09/12/2005 7:54:06 AM PDT by ken5050 (Ann Coulter needs to have children ASAP to pass on her gene pool....any volunteers?)
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To: ken5050
His numbers are spectacular, but since the Cubs faded even though he continued to hit, that would, IMHO, detract from the MVP idea..IOW, he didn't make a difference.

I object strenuously to this idea. Lee made the Cubs good vs. mediocre early on, and now makes them mediocre rather than bad.

It's like when a player hits 3 home runs, but his team loses, and his performance is written off because "it didn't help his team win". Get real, he did everything he could to win, not his fault his pitchers gave up X runs. People take the idea that baseball is a team sport, so an effort is only worthwhile if the team wins, and then demand that one individual win games singlehandedly. Sorry, you can't have it both ways. If a player does everything he can to help his team win all year, more than any other player, he deserves the MVP, no matter how bad his teammates suck.

17 posted on 09/12/2005 7:56:47 AM PDT by JohnnyZ (I'm marrying a woman before they make gay marriage mandatory!)
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To: ken5050

I don't know about the actual statistics, but I do remember in general that the Sox had Cleveland's number. They were always just a little better: the Tribe couldn't hit them, they were outdone late in the game, or matched run for run. The Indians just weren't ready yet. It was very frustrating to hear.


18 posted on 09/12/2005 7:58:09 AM PDT by Petronski (Cyborg is the greatest blessing I have ever known.)
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To: JohnnyZ

Valid points..That might hold water if there weren't any other stand out candidates..but this year there are two..It also might come down to "home-town" voting...Chicago area has more...


19 posted on 09/12/2005 8:06:25 AM PDT by ken5050 (Ann Coulter needs to have children ASAP to pass on her gene pool....any volunteers?)
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To: ken5050

Please put me on the baseball ping list. Tnx.


20 posted on 09/12/2005 8:07:57 AM PDT by LTCJ
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