Posted on 09/22/2005 4:34:38 AM PDT by Chairman_December_19th_Society
We will not tire, we will not falter, and we will not fail!
Good morning!!
Do not let the victims of the attacks on New York and Washington, nor the brave members of our Nation's military who have given their lives to protect our freedom, die in vain!!
CAT V HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY PACKAGE #19

Discussion:
[NOTE: This analysis is based primarily on data from the Tropical Prediction Center. As my home office is still not set up, independent track and guidance analysis is not possible.]
RITA has likely peaked in intensity. That is the good news.
The bad news is the peak is at 175 MPH, and the storm has now taken a decided turn to the right. NHC advises the track above is to the left (West) of the guidance ensemble, and that Sabine Pass is the more likely target, as opposed to Galveston.
The model runs are on the following graphic:

New Orleans is likely to receive between 3 and 5 inches of rain.
The eastward shift in track guidance is resulting in RITA staying over the Loop Current longer than previously expected. This will keep the storm at its current intensity for the balance of the day.
Further strengthening is unlikely as an eyewall replacement cycle is underway--this phenomenon generally locks a hurricane at a specific intensity, if it doesn't actually weaken, until the process is complete.
RITA is expected to move off the Loop Current prior to landfall.
CURRENT FORECAST ESTIMATES PLACE THE WIND SPEED OF RITA AT LANDFALL AT 150 MPH--THIS IS JUST SHY OF CATEGORY V, BUT STILL STRONGER THAN KATRINA.
The cyclone's central pressure is 897 MB or 26.49" Hg. This makes RITA the third most intense hurricane in history. The diameter of hurricane force winds is 140 miles, while tropical storm winds have a diameter of 370 miles.
RITA is currently about 515 miles SE of Galveston and 615 miles ESE of Corpus Christi.
A HP center over western TX will likely continue steering RITA to the right even after landfall, keeping the system locked in eastern Texas and western Louisiana.
The current strike probabilities are summarized on the graphic that follows:

And a quick snap of Rita from space, in the IR spectrum, with false color enhancement--

Now for this thought...
FULLY 20 PERCENT OF THE UNITED STATES GASOLINE REFINING CAPACITY LIES IN THE PATH OF RITA
For AMERICA - The Right Way, I remain yours in the Cause, the Chairman.
LET'S ROLL!!!
Good morning, everyone!
Pack up the whole family and come to Walter Reed Friday night to meet the great Jim Robinson.
Good morning.
Good morning.
Good Thursday morning to everyone!
I decided to take leave for the remainder of the week. With my commute to work being 56 miles roundtrip, I figured I better save the gas I have in my fuel tank & get prepared for Rita. I understand from posts from other threads that it's taking 12 hours for people to take the highway from Houston to Austin.
I dont know what the gasoline situation is today in the Bryan/College Station area but yesterday evening it was still fine. I will check later.
Finally, the NY Yankees are back in FIRST PLACE!
Good morning,
Thanks for the early start.
I thought that westward trek was too optomistic. Sabine Pass or Cameron looks more realistic...
Good morning.
Busy day.
Good morning. Another monster storm.
Hillary Clinton has agreed to meet with Cindy Sheehan.
http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1489176/posts
Good morning, Molly.
As of last night at 1030 his time....he said the track has went from bad to WORSE for Houston.
Good morning Chairman, everyone. Appreciate your hurricane report Chair.
Yikes!
LOCATION: 25.2N/88.3W (490 MI SE GALVESTON; 595 MI ESE CORPUS-CHRISTI
VECTOR: WNW/9
PRESSURE: 907 MB (26.78" Hg)
WINDS: 170 MPH (CAT V)
EYE DIAMETER: 20 MI HURRICANE FORCE DIAMETER: 140 MI TROPICAL STORM FORCE DIAMETER: 370 MI
[Better formatting...]
LOCATION: 25.2N/88.3W (490 MI SE GALVESTON; 595 MI ESE CORPUS-CHRISTI
VECTOR: WNW/9
PRESSURE: 907 MB (26.78" Hg)
WINDS: 170 MPH (CAT V)
EYE DIAMETER: 20 MI
HURRICANE FORCE DIAMETER: 140 MI
TROPICAL STORM FORCE DIAMETER: 370 MI
Good luck today!
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