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To: Ptarmigan
Thank you for the post. People living in the coastal areas of Texas have been lulled by years of relative inactivity in the Atlantic hurricane patch. A few big storms have made landfall in Texas, like "Carla" in 1961 and "Allen" in 1980. "Alicia" was a Category III storm in 1983, and the Weather Service and NOAA warned at the time that people shouldn't think "Alicia" was typical of a "big" hurricane.

"Rita" and "Katrina" in 2005 were the wakeup call. The meteorologists have been issuing preliminary forecasts for the 2006 hurricane season indicating that, like 2005 and 2004, it will be a very active year, with possibly even more numerous really severe storms.

As a final note, both "Katrina" and "Rita" faded their punches as they made landfall, weakened IIRC by cooler nearshore waters cooled by recent rain showers in the coastal areas. "Wilma" was a severe hurricane in south Florida, but fortunately its "dirty side" passed over Florida Bay and largely-empty mangrove swamps in the Everglades; Naples was on the left side of the fast-moving storm and received a double benefit of offshore winds, which militated against the storm surge, and the storm's forward motion, which reduced the top winds experienced in Naples and, by its rapidity, worked against the accumulation of a big tidal surge.

Naples was very, very lucky. If the storm had landed 50 or 75 miles farther north, they'd have been creamed every bit as badly as the Mississippi Gulf Coast was by "Katrina" two months earlier.

2 posted on 03/18/2006 1:41:22 PM PST by lentulusgracchus ("Whatever." -- sinkspur)
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To: lentulusgracchus

We've been more lucky with hurricanes. However, I fear this year could be much worse. I would not be surprised if there are even more Category 5 hurricanes and one hits the Gulf Coast and another the East Coast. Even though Katrina and Rita weakened as they made landfall, they did damage. Katrina was weakened because of dry air got in. As for Rita, it hit cooler waters. Wilma moved very fast, so the damage was not as bad. Like you said, it could of been much worse. Had Katrina went over or west of New Orleans, the flood would of happened sooner and there would be great wind damage. Many more lives could of been lost. If Houston was hit by a Category 5, it would be very catastrophic.


3 posted on 03/18/2006 3:13:09 PM PST by Ptarmigan (Proud bunny hater and killer)
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