Posted on 03/24/2006 10:00:44 AM PST by SirLinksalot
And the "Idol" Winner Is...
by Joal Ryan
Mar 23, 2006, 6:35 PM PT
This spring, American Idol is the other March madness.
Like college basketball fans pouring over brackets, Idol fans are scouring the Web for signs of which singer will emerge the winner of May's finale--and if they're feeling lucky, they're not being shy with their money.
"We're seeing almost unprecedented wagering on who's going to be eliminated," Kyle Fratini of the offshore gambling site PinnacleSports.com said Thursday. "We're seeing hundreds and hundreds of individual bets."
Among entertainment events listed by the site, Idol is now five times more popular than the Academy Awards, Fratini said.
"It's actually the perfect show for wagering, honestly," Fratini said. "It's so much like a sporting event that it's just designed perfectly for betting, with the weekly elimination and live results."
As a spectator event, Idol is bigger than ever. On Tuesday, an estimated 33.2 million rode the way-back machine to the 1950s. On Wednesday, another 27.7 million witnessed Wednesday's dismissal of self-proclaimed sex symbol Kevin Corvais.
And at one point on Thursday, a Google search for the words "who will win american idol" yielded 11.4 million results.
Here's a rundown of some major signposts that are helping gauge the answer to that musical question:
DialIdol.com
Citing its analysis of Idol phone lines (i.e., the busier the phone line the more popular the contestant), this speed-dialing site predicted that Elliott Yamin would get the hook on Wednesday. The week before, it pegged Lisa Tucker for the inglorious title of lowest vote-getter.
Yamin and Tucker, however, are still around; Corvais and Melissa McGhee, who was bounced the week before, aren't.
So, no, D i a l I d o l isn't perfect. (It did much better in the semifinal rounds.) Webmaster Jim Hellriegel, a Chris Daughtry fan who votes for all the finalists equally, said Thursday he's identified a problem in the hopes of making the site more accurate next week.
And, yes, it looks like there will be a next week. Although Hellriegel has heard from Fox's lawyers (over alleged copyright infringement), he hasn't heard from them lately. He even defended the network against conspiracy theorists who allege Fox kept Yamin around in order to call into question BLEEP.com's predicting powers. Said Hellriegel: "I don't think Fox is fixing the results."
Online gaming
PinnacleSports has no-haired rocker Chris Daughtry as the odds-on-favorite, followed by long-haired Katharine McPhee and gray-haired Taylor Hicks. Initially, the line was set the old-fashioned way: Staffers watched the show, and gauged the performances. Then as now, Daughtry was the front-runner. "He knocked it out of the ballpark," Fratini said of the singer's early performance.
The site's latest line has Bucky Covington as the most likely finalist to be booted next week.
Prior to this week's voting results, PlayersOnly.com issued its own Idol odds. And, once again, the money was coming in on Daughtry. McPhee was a close second, followed by Paris Bennett. (Aptly, Corvais was given the longest shot of winning.)
MisterPoll.com
There are several Idol polls to be found at this site. The most to the point appears to be the one titled, "Who do you think will win American Idol Season 5?" With some 700 votes cast as of Thursday afternoon, Chris "Daughtery" was misspelled, but safely in the lead.
IdolonFox
On the message boards for the show's official Website, no finalist has inspired more posts to his or her own individual category than Taylor Hicks. No one else, in fact, is even close. Not even Daughtry. (He's third, behind Ace Young.) Of course, if IdolonFox.com posts were votes, Lisa Tucker wouldn't be in the bottom three every week, and Mandisa and Paris Bennett would.
Lycos
According to the search engine, Hicks was the most-searched for contestant for the week ended March 18. Daughtry was second, followed by Kellie Pickler. (Tucker was the least searched for.)
"Web users are definitely all about Taylor Hicks," said Dean Tsouvalas, writer of the Lycos 50, a weekly rundown of the site's top searches.
But Web users also were about Corvais, or at least, per Lycos, they were more into the Chicken Little-likened teenager than about half the field. And yet it was Corvais, even with the ranks of BLEEP.com behind him, who was doomed to exit early.
Tsouvalas conceded that it's too early to declare an Idol winner based on Web searches. And even late in the game, it can be a dicey prospect. Last May, AOL declared Bo Bice the presumptive fourth season winner based on search engine activity. Idol voters, however, crowned Carrie Underwood.
But Web activity is a sign of something--usually, a frontrunner, according to Tsouvalas: "It definitely takes the temperature this week."
Simon Cowell
Never shy about speaking his mind, Idol's hanging judge named names when asked for his picks last week on Howard Stern's satellite radio show: Chris Daughtry, Taylor Hicks and new BLEEP.com candidate Kellie Pickler.
Is Cowell right? Are Lycos users showing the way? Is MisterPoll.com onto something?
Unlike college basketball fans, Idol fans will have to wait two more months to have this madness straightened out.
Taylor Hicks is my pick. Love that guy.
Snore...
Let me be the first to say, Who cares?
But maybe that's just me.
Final two - Daughtry and Hicks. (Mandisa heads to Broadway)
Winner - Hicks.
And what the hell is Ace still doing there? He stinks.
If last weeks show is any indication, he's got that hard to get 4 year old vote all sewn up.
I can't stand the stares into the camera. It's like he's trying to hypnotize us into voting for him.
LOL - true! Next week he'll get his pocket watch out while he sings "Superstar".
I'd say it is more of a wide open field this year, with Mandisa, Chris, Taylor, Paris, Catherine, and maybe even Elliot and Kellie having at least a shot at winning. I'd say Mandisa or Chris are the most likely to win, but it is hard to narrow down and predict the top 3 or 4 because it really can change this year week to week based on performances. No one is a runaway standout with the entire package like Carrie was last year, but several who might be leading right now are going to be hurt as we get down to the final 2, 3, or 4 by people being able to more effectively vote against them. For example, look at Kellie. While she is one of the most popular in a 10 way race and could very well make the final 2, I can't see her winning because so many also can't stand her, thinking she is either faking or they have an anti-Southern bias (bordering on bigotry.) Paris had also crossed into that zone (though disliked for different reasons) but may have come back in the last week by toning down some of her annoying antics and because she is a very talented singer. Kellie just isn't at the level that Carrie was, so if you are annoying to many and not the best singer, you probably won't go all the way. Taylor may also ultimately lose out because of a large anti- vote against him and his overwrought spasm schtick. Elliot is so talented but doesn't seem to have the huge following yet.
So I'd say the odds of winning are best for 1) Chris or 2) Mandisa.
Yep, it's just you.
Not every contestant is great, but there is some legitimate talent on that show.
I like Hicks too. But, you have to consider that the largest voting block in this contest consists of 9-14 year old girls.
In their eyes, Ace is just soooo dreamy. He's the dark horse in this contest.
But yeah, Taylor's my man, Pickler's my girl and Daughtry has got a unique talent. His version of Walk the Line just blew me away. He doesn't need American Idol...
Final three - Mandisa, Hicks and Daughtry.
Final two - Daughtry and Hicks. (Mandisa heads to Broadway)
Winner - Hicks
I'm with you all the way except I see Chris coming out on top, as much as I really really like Hicks.
"Let me be the first to say, Who cares?"
Maybe the people who clicked on a thread about it. ;-)
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