All that said, the most steadily profitable tactic I've been engaged in recently is the buying of long-date straddles on ''hot'' shares. CME, GOOG, you pick it -- doesn't matter whether they rise or fall, the mktmakers in options simply do not price these richly enough. Buying GOOG straddles has been just falloutofbed profitable over the past 17 months both to the upside and the downside. As Mr. Casey Stengel once noted, ''you could look it up''.
I'm purchasing CME ATM straddles, probably for Sep, Monday, without any doubt. Tried to get in late Friday, but was probably a bit too cute (my fault). I'll pick up a few Monday, though -- bet your wife and your life on it.
Next time you see some BS stock hyped up to the clouds, DO NOT try to guess whether it'll go higher or collapse. Simply buy the longest date ATM straddle you can afford ... and visit the cashier a bit later on, either way.
Friendly side hint. NYMEX is going public later this year, perhaps in September. Just stay on the news as to the precise date, then -- don't get cute, just bid 1/2 above the ask -- at 10:30 am Eastern time on the day it does go public. Whether you flip it for a quickie or sit on it for the trip, you (hell, anyone) will do nicely. I'll be rolling my ISE and BOT profits into this one, w/o any doubt.
Best to you, m'friend, and good trading always!
Your CME straddle is an excellent play.
Reference bump for later when I'm awake ... ;-)