[CzarNicky]

Here is a list of the countries and the number of children per woman that are going to conquer the west 2.10 is considered replacement level for a developed country with low infant mortality.

Albania 2.03
Algeria 1.89
Bosnia 1.22
Iran 1.8
Tunisia 1.74
Turkey 1.92

VS

United States 2.09

What can I say? go us.

Now on a more serious note there are some problems with muslims breeding like rats in Arabia and Pakistan especially but in reality the vast majority of the muslim world is in the range of 2-3 children per woman and declining. Before the end of this century and probably before the midway point the muslim world will be experiencing the same demographic crunch the the west is experiencing now.

[CzarNicky]

BTW all stats are from the CIA World Factbook.

[steve-b]

Indeed. This whole "demographic" (in quotes to avoid aspersion to actual demographers who understand real science) argument reminds me of nothing so much as the current global-cooling alarmism circa 1976 or global-warming alarmism circa 2006.

I swear, some of these people fear that an ordinary fever is going to continue to the point of spontaneous human combusion.

[steve-b]

Albania 2.03
Algeria 1.89
Bosnia 1.22
Iran 1.8
Tunisia 1.74
Turkey 1.92
VS
United States 2.09

Now you've gone and done spoiled a perfectly good apocalyptic sermon with facts.

[wideawake]

Well, I actually went out and did the real math.

First, a few observations before I report the data.

(1) The data is drawn from the CIA World Factbook, some gaps in population numbers supplied by Britannica.

(2) CzarNicky used the children per woman number, I use the more accurate rate of reproductive growth number which corrects for discrepancies in infant mortality.

That correction favors the West, of course, and not Islam.

(3) The numbers are inevitably skewed in the West's favor, since the large Islamic communities in Western Europe are represented in the West's numbers. These Muslims are basically counted as Westerners.

(4) I made of a list of the world's 34 Muslim majority nations and then I made a list of 59 Western nations comprising not only Europe and the Americas and Oceania, but also India and South Africa.

(6) The numbers which CzarNicky did indeed cherry-pick include 6 Muslim countries in the bottom quartile of the Muslim world's fertility and 4 of the smallest Muslim countries vs. the US which has the sixth highest growth rate of Western countries of any size (behind Colombia, Brazil, Argentina, Mexico and India)

(7) Normalizing the data, we find that the aggregate population growth rate of the Muslim world is 1.74% annually versus an aggregate annual growth rate of 0.08% for the West.

(8) Four Western countries out of almost 60 are carrying the ball for the entire West: Brazil, India, Mexico and the USA. They account for 22 out of 23 million net new Westerners each year.