Posted on 11/10/2006 12:48:59 PM PST by pkajj
2008 Senate Prospects
When looking ahead to the 2008 Senate races, one can only be further depressed by the lost opportunities in 2006. There are very few opportunities out there in 2008. The Democrats only have 12 seats up, and 6 of those have to be considered safe.
Plus, the Republicans will once again be required to defend turf that must be considered vulnerable. Without question, the top of the ticket will also be a factor in how the Senate races play out.
That being said, the races seem to break down like this (assuming no retirements):
GOP Safe (17):
Alabama – Jeff Sessions Alaska – Ted Stevens Georgia – Saxby Chambliss Idaho – Larry Craig Kansas – Pat Roberts Kentucky – Mitch McConnell Maine – Susan Collins Mississippi – Thad Cochran Nebraska – Chuck Hagel New Mexico – Pete Domenici North Carolina – Elizabeth Dole Oklahoma – James Inhofe South Carolina – Lindsey Graham Tennessee – Lamar Alexander Texas – John Cornyn Virginia – John Warner Wyoming – Mike Enzi
Democrat Safe (6):
Delaware – Joe Biden Illinois – Richard Durbin Massachusetts – John Kerry Michigan – Carl Levin Rhode Island – Jack Reed West Virginia – Jay Rockefeller
GOP Vulnerable (4):
Colorado – Wayne Allard Minnesota – Norm Coleman New Hampshire – John Sununu Oregon – Gordon Smith
Democrat Vulnerable (6):
Arkansas – Mark Pryor Iowa – Tom Harkin Louisiana – Mary Landrieu Montana – Max Baucus New Jersey – Frank Lautenberg South Dakota – Tim Johnson
Comments
All of the 17 GOP safe seats should be clear of any serious challenge. Within the 6 Democrat safe seats, only something drastic in nature (such as Mike Ditka challenging Dick Durbin or Chafee taking a crack at Jack Reed) would raise any GOP hopes.
Regarding the 4 GOP vulnerable seats, expect hard fought battles in all of them, especially in Colorado and Minnesota. Smith appears to be the best positioned of the four. The Democrats will wage all out war to pick off as many of these as possible. Well managed campaigns should enable the GOP to successfully defend these seats, so long as there is plenty of money and no gaffes are forthcoming (can you say “macaca”?).
Regarding the Democrat vulnerable seats, the only conceivable way to knock off Mark Pryor appears to be persuading Mike Huckabee to abandon his presidential ambitions and focus on recapturing this seat for the GOP. Even then, it would be a nail biter of a race.
Tom Harkin has never won by large margins, and 2008 should be no different. Any Iowans have any thoughts on this? Congressman Lightfoot came very close once, and Greg Ganske ran a good race last time.
Mary Landrieu is by far the most vulnerable of the Democrats. Much of her Democrat ATM voting machine in New Orleans (150,000+) is gone due to Katrina. If he foregoes next year’s governor’s race, Bobby Jindal would be ideally positioned to take this seat. If not him, Jim McCrery could take it as well. If the GOP cannot take this seat, they don’t deserve to be the majority party.
Montanans just booted out a long time GOP incumbent by a small margin. It’s conceivable they could do the same to Baucus, who historically just squeaks by in his elections (2002 has to be considered an anomaly). The GOP should put the screws to former governor Marc Racicot to return home and take this seat for the GOP.
New Jersey will presumably be an open seat. This alone presents an opening for the GOP, but who to field? Kean again? (Of course there could be two open seats after the justice system runs its course).
In South Dakota, Tim Johnson won last time by 500 votes. This would indicate he is vulnerable, but the GOP bench is very thin in the state. Perhaps Gov. Rounds could be persuaded to take this one on.
Finally, not to be morbid, if Sen. Byrd is unable to serve out all of his new term, that would create another opportunity for the GOP in West Virginia.
All in all, there remains a slightly better than even chance for the GOP to recapture the Senate in 2008. Of course, this is two years out, and much will happen between now and then, including the presidential nominations.
How long until the mess in Ohio can be cleaned up?
By the way, for 2010 there's talk Schwarzenegger will run against Bozo Boxer. If he does, he'll win. I know some don't like him but he'll be far better than the absolutely eggregious Barbara BoxWhore.
For us, it is imperative to recruit the following:
Governor Rounds in South Dakota
Governor Huckabee in Arkansas
A Congressman in Louisiana
If we do these three things, then we will put the Democrats on defensive.
Keep in mind though that Allard is retiring. We are struggling in Colorado. We need to recruit Owens there.
I think Graham will face a primary challenge, and those vulnerable GOP seats may not be so vulnerable since they will in the opposition and the democrats will take the blame for the wacky way they will run the Senate.
Ohio has a history of hideous Senators...remember Metzenbaum and Glenn?
This might not be a Dem safe seat. Rumor has it the Carl Lenin may be retiring.
I am hoping we can get a fiscal conservative to run against Inhofe in the primaries. He is good on social issues, which of course I like, but he is a big spender and a believer in big government, which I don't like. I am hoping we can find someone along the lines of Tom Coburn to run against him. However, we will retain the seat even if it is with Inhofe.
Possible retirements:
Levin (D-MI)
Warner (R-VA)
Craig (R-ID)
Collins (R-ME)
Stevens (R-AK)
If they all retired we's be safe in Alaska and Idaho, dead in Maine, coin flip in Virginia, and coin flip pick up in Michigan.
I wish he'd push his glasses up, or get bifoc's. Everytime I see him, it annoys me....almost as much as Waxman's nostrils.
Harkin is not in trouble. Hate to say it.
We had better start looking at the GOP Senate chances for 2010.
These are the very reasons we need some TRUE conservatives at the head of the RNC and the RNSC. Any suggestions?
You also could wonder how long Rockefeller wants to put up with the back problems, or the guy in Hawaii who has been sick.
On the other hand, you have to expect some of the older republicans to quit if they are not certain we can win back the senate, being in the minority won't be that much fun for them.
On the other hand Norm Coleman will have to win again in Blue Minnesota, Gordon Smith is up for reelection in Blue Oregon, Pete Domenici in Blue New Mexico, and Elizabeth Dole is running in whatever North Carolina is. Ted Stevens is way past his bedtime, too. It could be a wash.
Someone should ask Rick Santorum to move to West Virginia and either run against Rockefeller or for Byrd's eventually open seat.
Yes, it is a shame. If only the unhappy conservatives were allowed to vent online in the political forums without being angered even further by being called "DUmmy Troll", "Bush Basher" and other things maybe they wouldnt have vented on Tuesday.
What statesmen (or, rather, statespersons) we have been supporting!
I don't give John Kerry a shot at the Michigan seat in 2008.
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