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Accuweather update 1945 EDT 2007-08-12:

Trouble Brewing in the Eastern Atlantic

By Accuweather.com Meteorologist Josh Nagelberg

A tropical wave, which emerged from the African Coast on Friday, is showing signs of life with a weak circulation center forming during the day Sunday. The low pressure center is located about 150 miles south of the southern Cape Verde Islands, near 12 north and 25 west, and is moving to the west at about 15 knots. Atmospheric conditions are favorable for this system to develop further, and it may become the first Cape Verde storm of the 2007 Atlantic season over the next few days. Several global models have been showing this wave to become a well-organized tropical cyclone, perhaps even a hurricane, over the coming week. A large region of high pressure aloft to its north put it on a westerly track, perhaps reaching the Lesser Antilles Thursday or Friday. After that, there is some uncertainty as to where the system, if it develops, may end up, but if you're in the Caribbean, on the Gulf Coast, or even on the Southeast Coast, you should pay attention to this system.

Much of the western Caribbean Sea is unsettled at this time. A tropical wave is found near 87 west, as well as another wave around 77 west. These two waves are interacting with an upper-level trough of low pressure located over the far southeastern Gulf, just west of the Florida Keys. The result of these features are scattered thunderstorms from South Florida, the Bahamas, and western Cuba into Central America. The upper trough of low pressure will track westward into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Monday and will move into northern Mexico by Tuesday night or Wednesday. The tropical wave will be trailing behind the upper trough, and it will continue to be ventilated by the upper trough, so numerous showers and thunderstorms should continue. There is a small chance of a developing tropical cyclone in the southwest Gulf of Mexico by midweek. There could at least be an increased chance of rain over deep South Texas by then.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, a tropical wave is found near 36 west and south of 14 north. This wave is moving to the west at 10-15 knots and is causing little in the way of showers and thunderstorms. Another tropical wave can be found near 43 west and south of 14 north. This wave is moving westward at 10-15 knots. This wave is causing showers and thunderstorms along the Intertropical Convergence Zone.