Posted on 11/14/2007 2:51:00 PM PST by HHKrepublican_2
So I guess anyone who’s on the list who’s still on FR better look out, huh? ;)
So do people actually trade money on presidential nomination speculation on intrade?
So do people actually trade money on presidential nomination speculation on intrade?
***Yes they do. There’s also a play market for us cheapskates.
Surprisingly, the faux money markets tend to track the real markets quite closely.
I noticed that you said you had a list of nuts you don’t post to. You replied to me and if you think I’m not nuts......you’re nuts.
((Don’t put me on your nut list, I’m only playing.)
Not only can you put your money where your mouth is, but if you’re right, you’ll make money by doing it. I find the whole thing fascinating.
So far this cycle it has predicted the Fred fall in the polls, greeted Ron Paul’s rise with a yawn, and put Huckabee past McCain before anyone else. It also predicted the republican flat tire in 2006 when Free Republic showed 8% who thought we’d lose both houses.
Interesting. What big issues has it been wrong on?
Interesting. What big issues has it been wrong on?
***I don’t know. Ellery had one example, I’m sure there are others. I’m hoping to see the data posted on the efficacy thread.
The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets
The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts
I agree with you!!
My gawd how come so many want to give up instead of working hard for a real conservative like Duncan Hunter. I never saw so many people complain, whine, moan that we cannot win and give up the fight for our country and say well it must be Rudy.
I say NO way, never. I am only a girl, but I sure see a lot of weak men already to give up and I just don't get it. What happened to the American spirit to work hard for what a person believes in and not just throw in the towell. Voting for Rudy IS throwing in the towell.
Say you give up fine that is your choice. But stop the blame game that is just so the personality of a leftie.
I’ve been digging — sorry, it’s taking me a while. The biggest problem is that I can’t find historical InTrade data online (at least for free) except in sporadic news reports. All the IEM data is online — Kevmo, in your experience does IEM track Intrade (a much bigger market) well enough for IEM to be a useful data set? Unfortunately, the IEM doesn’t have the state primary races — so it would be ideal if we could access historical Intrade data.
Another problem (at least as it relates to assessing this primary) is that we have data from only two similar, multiple-candidate primaries to evaluate (the GOP primary in 2000, and the donk primary in ‘04). Two-candidate general election races are much less complex and thus less pertinent to our current situation (’though still interesting).
Anyhoo, I’ve run across two instances so far where the prediction markets got it wrong. Caveat: it’s important to remember, as was noted in Kevmo’s research, that no one is claiming that prediction markets can tell us what’s going to happen. The issue is whether they are a better predictor than the polls. So, to fully evaluate the two instances below, we have to document what the polls said (i.e., were they even more off than Intrade?) In the first instance, the article says that the prediction market basically tracked the polls, so everyone got it wrong.
The biggest prediction market error was the dem primary run-up to the Iowa caucuses:
“Consider the Democratic caucus in Iowa. It is the first and most influential primary of the entire process, and it was the most anticipated primary of the season. There had been a solid year of campaigning leading up to it. The last three months were replete with intense local media coverage. If any prediction market should function correctly, this one was it.
“Well, right up until a few days before the primary, this market’s prediction was that Dean would win, and do so handily. Only he didn’t. Dean got crushed, and Kerry went on to be the nominee.”
http://www.thestreet.com/p/_rms/rmoney/barryritholtz/10185976.html
Another was from the general election in 2000:
“SM: The IEM predicted Bush would win the popular vote in 2000, which he didn’t. What went wrong?
“TR: IEM predicted about a two-thirds chance that he would win the popular vote, and Gore barely won. In our Winner-Takes-All market, we predict the probabilities of an event. In this case, it was either Bush or Gore taking the majority of the popular vote. When you predict the probability of an event, what you’re going to see is an outcome - either it happened or it didn’t. We predicted that there was a two-thirds chance that Bush would take the popular vote, but that means we also said there was a one-third chance that Gore would, and that’s what happened.”
http://www.smartmoney.com/theproshop/index.cfm?story=20041007
Aw, I’ve been called a liberaltarian or a loserdopian more times than I can count for posting anything negative about police militarization, the war on drugs, etc. I hope you’ll change your mind.
I get blasted all the time. Stay and keep your principles. I certainly don’t agree with your stance on Guliani and I might think that you are misguided but that does not mean that you don’t have the right to say what you think is right, but that also means that you should be willing to hear that you are perceived wrong from others. This is not a time to run away. Please stay and do the great work that you have have done in the past or at least come back after a SHORT break.
You GO girl!!!! Shout it from the rooftops! Where ARE the real men?? Are you all gone?
HHKrepublican_2, at least you have the satisfaction of knowing people would notice when you turned up an unperson. I’d never be missed.
>>>at the same time there is a great deal of maturity overall
RightWhale you really think so ? When I see a post where supposedly mature politically aware adults go around calling a serious contender “Julie Annie” I just cringe at the childishness. And there seems like such a lot of this attitude. Rule or ruin. My way or else.
It’s not a question of Rudy. It’s the crackpots, and they are getting very embarrassing. All I know is when you get into the realm of political purity tests, you eventually end up with a very small, impotent, and immaterial but oh so self righteous remainder.
“What happened to the American spirit to work hard for what a person believes in and not just throw in the towell.”
It got metrosexualized.
Don’t sweat the small stuff. If you haven’t been suspended you are not trying hard enough.
When I advise a person to visit, I always add “don’t be concerned about the wacko’s.....just ignore them.”
Personally I think FR might have some trolls that have gained access to certain parts of the website and are acting as mods, then again I have absolutely no idea how many mods Jim even uses or the security firewalls etc. I have posted comments and an occasional image that were against the guidelines, some slipped through and some not. And lately FR has been in the spotlight and we have had some pretty descriptive labels thrown at us, we are also strong enough to be a worrisome factor to many groups and or political idealists and they have definitely advertised their displeasure of seeing their dirty underwear on a website of such as ours.
I also think that because of the rules that are here we have not totally dropped to the depths of a redneck pissing contest forums board.
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