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The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets
The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany

Posted on 11/08/2007 12:21:43 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum

As I’ve pointed out, I’m a believer in prediction markets. For me, though, it’s more of an intuitive expectation that markets (i.e. revealed preference) are likely to be more accurate than stated preference. The question has come up with Doug, who isn’t yet a believer in prediction markets, as to whether there is any empirical evidence on how reliable prediction markets are.

So I went looking, and found a nice paper titled Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities (PDF). I recommend following the link and reading the whole thing, but if you’re not interested, the first paragraph of the conclusion tells you what was discovered (emphasis added):

An old joke about academics suggests that we are often led to ask: “We know it works in practice, but does it work in theory?” This paper arguably follows that model. As discussed above, a variety of field evidence across several domains suggests that prediction market prices appear to be quite accurate predictors of probabilities. This paper suggests that this evidence is easily reconcilable with a theory in which traders have heterogeneous beliefs that are correct on average.

There are several concrete examples given, but as a football fan and occasional gambler, I know how difficult it is to predict football games. Last year, I tracked college games as if I were betting on the games, and against the spread I had a surprisingly good 62.5% record. That’s enough to beat Vegas, but the odd thing is that it was still only about an 80% record straight up picking winners and losers. So to read the below made me a believer in prediction markets:

For this reason we turn to two rather unique datasets. The first was provided to us by Probability Football, an advertising-supported free contest that requires players to estimate the probability of victory in every NFL game in a season.17 Including the pre-season and playoffs, this yields 259 games in the 2000 and 2001 seasons and 267 in 2002 and 2003. On average we observe the probability assessments of 1320 players in each game, for a total sample size of 1.4 million observations. Contestants are scored using a quadratic scoring rule; they receive 100 - 400(w - q)2, points where w is an indicator variable for whether the team wins and q is the stated probability assessment. Truthfully reporting probabilities yields the greatest expected points, a fact that is explicitly explained to contestants.

The top three players receive cash prizes. While these rank-order incentives potentially provide an incentive to add variance to one’s true beliefs, it turns out that given the number of games in a season, this incentive is small. For instance, in 2003, two mock entrants to this contest that simply used prices from TradeSports and the Sports Exchange (a sports-oriented play-money prediction market run by NewsFutures.com) as their probabilities placed seventh and ninth out of almost 2,000 entrants.

Such ideas are fairly simple. As a personal test, if any readers are in offices where you participate in weekly football pools, try a “system” of picking instead of your own intuition, and see how you do. For example, I’ve seen college pick’em pools where you assign a “confidence” rating to your picks for winners. A simple system would be to take the favorite in every game, and assign the confidence ratings to the teams in order of the largest spread to the smallest spread. You may not always have the best weeks, but I would postulate that over the season, you’re going to be in very good shape.

But the key here is that when you’re looking at various ways of determining probability, no method is 100% accurate. Prediction markets, though, have certain features that make them more likely to be accurate than many other “conventional” methods of evaluating probability, like polls. For that reason, and especially now that I have found empirical evidence to support my earlier intuition, I am more and more comfortable in my use of Intrade’s numbers over those of Gallup or Pew Research.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
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Maybe the Iowa Electronic Markets are onto something.
1 posted on 11/08/2007 12:21:44 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

bump


2 posted on 11/08/2007 12:27:54 PM PST by lesser_satan (READ MY LIPS: NO NEW RINOS | FRED THOMPSON/ DUNCAN HUNTER '08)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

they are definitely the ultimate exit poll


3 posted on 11/08/2007 12:30:38 PM PST by ari-freedom (I am for traditional moral values, a strong national defense, and free markets.)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

tradesports.com


4 posted on 11/08/2007 1:15:22 PM PST by sbMKE
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

On the morning of election day 2004, in the predictions of the individual senate races, Tradesports had the eventual winner ahead on every single one of the close ones, even Virginia.


5 posted on 11/08/2007 2:18:53 PM PST by mjp (Live & let live. I don't want to live in Mexico, Marxico, or Muslimico. Statism & high taxes suck)
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To: ellery; Calpernia; Bull Market; Petronski; John Valentine

Recently I have had discussions about these kinds of markets with you folks. This seems like the right thread to have that discussion.


6 posted on 11/08/2007 3:52:15 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: ellery; Calpernia; Bull Market; Petronski; John Valentine; RockinRight

Fred Thompson’s blunder

Posted by Kevmo to RockinRight
On News/Activism 11/08/2007 3:01:24 PM PST · 281 of 284

So? In August and Sept. he was in the 30s. So was Intrade right then or is it right now? What about a month from now? Intrade is volatile by its very nature.
***Of course it’s volatile and no one can predict the future. Fred was in the 30’s and, when the market had a chance to measure him up, they pronounced him the “segway” candidate, the vehicle that didn’t measure up to the hype.
The way I look at it, the market was correct then and correct now. For those who really think Fred’s going to take off, they can actually make money by putting it down for Fred.


7 posted on 11/08/2007 3:55:50 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Tailgunner Joe; ellery; Calpernia; Bull Market; Petronski; John Valentine; RockinRight

Fred Thompson’s blunder

Posted by Kevmo to Tailgunner Joe
On News/Activism 11/08/2007 12:12:07 AM PST · 4 of 284

Fred has lost ~30 points at Intrade over the last few weeks, with some heavy short interest still prevailing.

Thompson Tanking in Futures Markets (Intrade, IEM)
Intrade; Iowa Electronic Markets ^ | October 31, 2008

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1919127/posts

Intrade forum discussion
http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1805.page


8 posted on 11/08/2007 3:57:47 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: ellery; Calpernia; Bull Market; Petronski; John Valentine; RockinRight

That should be enough sampling of Intrade stuff for now.

Fred Thompson Is Finished

Posted by Kevmo to ellery
On News/Activism 11/07/2007 11:19:04 PM PST · 261 of 325

And here was my reply to that same post on this other thread.

The forum over at Intrade has some interesting discussions on how and why Fred has been tanking.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922408/posts?page=183#183

To: ellery
Thanks for the articles. I note that even in 2004, Intrade had $2M being bet back & forth on GWB. There was an attempt to manipulate it per Wikipedia, but it failed. These markets are not perfectly efficient (no market is) but they are better predictors than anything else, including pundits and especially MSM Polls more than a year out. These markets are here to stay, and their presence is growing, especially in corporate america as internal vehicles to help get a handle on aggregated conventional wisdom.

From the article you pointed to:
Those Spurious Presidential Futures:
http://www.thestreet.com/p/_rms/rmoney/barryritholtz/10185976.html

Intrade.com claims to be the largest futures exchange in the world, and its biggest contract — the George W. Bush futures — has about $2 million invested currently.

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Excerpt from

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/14/business/14leonhardt.html?ex=1329109200&en=ea921473018438fa&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss

A little before 1 a.m. — with the Intrade odds at 37 percent — CNN broadcast a live interview with John Aravosis, a liberal activist. “We pretty much know where we are,” Mr. Aravosis said. “The Dems have the House. Republicans have the Senate. And, you know, I don’t think that’s going to change by morning.”

It did change, of course. Mr. Allen soon conceded, and the Democrats began planning their majority. Mr. Wolfers, an economist at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, sitting in the comfort of his living room, had been a better pundit than most of the professionals on television, thanks to a Web site that is based in Ireland.

Over the last few years, Intrade — with headquarters in Dublin, where the gambling laws are loose — has become the biggest success story among a new crop of prediction markets.

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Excerpt from

http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/08/02/were-the-intrade-prediction-markets-on-the-november-2006s-senate-elections-accurate/

Were the InTrade prediction markets on the November 2006’s Senate elections accurate?
Chris. F. Masse August 2nd, 2007

Revisiting the issue, almost one year later.

Lance Fortnow (University of Chicago) wrote:

So how did those predictions go? In short you can say the markets predicted every individual race correctly but got the senate wrong, but let us look a little more carefully.

At about 9 AM CST on the morning of election day I made a snap shot of the map for a Discovery Channel Website article.

Every state colored blue was won by a democrat and every state colored red went to a republican. But also note the 69% given to GOP (Republican) Senate control although this election will give control to the democrats. No outcome would have made all the states and senate control agree with the 9 AM map.

Were the markets inconsistent? No, because the markets predict not absolutely but probabilistically. For example, the markets gave a probability of winning 60% for each of Virginia and Missouri and the democrats needed both to take the senate. If these races were independent events, the probability that the democrats take both is 36% or a 64% chance of GOP senate control assuming no other surprises.

Of course the races were not independent events and there are other states involved making it more difficult to compare the probabilities of the individual races with that of senate control.

So how did the markets do as predictors? Quite well as the outcome seems quite reasonable given the markets. Other outcomes would have also been reasonable such as the Democrats losing Virginia and the senate remaining in republican hands, a possibility that came very close to happening.

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Excerpt from

New York Times on prediction markets — REDUX
Chris. F. Masse February 14th, 2007

- New York Times.

- Justin Wolfers Interview - by New York Times - (MP3) - 2007-02-14
http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/02/14/new-york-times-on-prediction-markets-redux/

- Justin Wolfers‘ comment on my “08 is two years away [*]” comment:

Your concern about the accuracy of markets two years out seems entirely well placed. But again - and I think it is worth saying this over and over - the relevant question is whether the markets do a better job than alternative information aggregation devices. My own analysis (with Andrew Leigh) of Australian polling data suggests that any polling done more than a year before an election is essentially useless. That is, you are better off simply guessing that the previous election results will repeat themselves, than you are using early polls.

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Excerpt from

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market

In the Tradesports 2004 presidential markets there was an apparent manipulation effort. An anonymous trader sold short so many Bush 2004 presidential futures contracts that the price was driven to zero, implying a zero percent chance that Bush would win. The only rational purpose of such a trade would be an attempt to manipulate the market in a strategy called a “bear raid”. If this was a deliberate manipulation effort it failed, however, as the price of the contract rebounded rapidly to its previous level. As more press attention is paid to prediction markets, it is likely that more groups will be motivated to manipulate them. However, in practice, such attempts at manipulation have always proven to be very short lived. In their paper entitled “Information Aggregation and Manipulation in an Experimental Market” (2005),[11] Hanson, Oprea and Porter (George Mason U), show how attempts at market manipulation in fact end up increasing the accuracy of the market because they provide that much more profit incentive to bet against the manipulator.


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9 posted on 11/08/2007 4:06:06 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo

So, the tradesports one you reference, that is out of country and plays with real money, right?


10 posted on 11/08/2007 5:24:43 PM PST by Calpernia (Hunters Rangers - Raising the Bar of Integrity http://www.barofintegrity.us)
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To: Calpernia

I think so, but I have been focusing on Intrade.


11 posted on 11/08/2007 6:31:57 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: ejonesie22; kevkrom

We also went through a few discussions of the Intrade market so I’m including that thread as a discussion jumpoff point.

Duncan Hunter is at 5%. Vanity.
Intrade ^ | 10/28/07 | Kevmo

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1917686/posts
Posted on 10/28/2007 4:48:28 PM PDT by Kevmo

Hunter supporters are constantly being told that our candidate is at 1%. The only real basis for this is biased Media polls. An unbiased source would be Intrade, which has Hunter at a $5 (corresponding to 5%) ask price on the faux exchange, no activity on the real exchange. Futures markets have proven to be better indicators than polls.


12 posted on 11/08/2007 7:42:16 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo

I was under the impression Intrade and TradeSports were the same from the wording here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market

“Notable exceptions are Intrade/TradeSports, which...”

No matter.

Question though.

Say a candidate wanted to move foreign monies into a nonprofit they set up and use it for their campaign. Could this Intrade vehicle be used? Can Intrade be pumped and dumped to receive monies?


13 posted on 11/08/2007 7:42:23 PM PST by Calpernia (Hunters Rangers - Raising the Bar of Integrity http://www.barofintegrity.us)
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To: Calpernia

Could this Intrade vehicle be used? Can Intrade be pumped and dumped to receive monies?
***It probably could. Intrade is based in Ireland and the regulations are pretty loose. Such an operation would probably show up on some pretty simple monitoring software, though. The volume spike would show up even on our own screenshots.


14 posted on 11/08/2007 7:47:18 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo

Interesting.

Thanks.


15 posted on 11/08/2007 7:53:25 PM PST by Calpernia (Hunters Rangers - Raising the Bar of Integrity http://www.barofintegrity.us)
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To: Calpernia

By the way, Fred’s been tanking on Intrade, and Hunter is probably a real good bargain at 0.1% since he recently polled at 4%.


16 posted on 11/08/2007 8:44:24 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: All

Another case in point.

Huckabee slides into second in Iowa
KCRG TV News, Iowa ^ | 11/8/2007

Posted on 11/08/2007 8:58:32 PM PST by dano1

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1923193/posts?page=18#18

Huckabee has been eating Giuliani’s and Thompson’s lunch on Intrade for a few weeks already.

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=483499&z=1194591150610


17 posted on 11/08/2007 10:37:45 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo
And I'll point out again that in Intrade's real money market, not the "practice" or "play" market, Hunter is at 0.1% (the minimum active value) and has been there since July.

If you insist on using Intrade as an indicator, at least be honest and use the real money market.

18 posted on 11/09/2007 4:42:56 AM PST by kevkrom (“Should government be doing this? And if so, then at what level of government?” - FDT)
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To: kevkrom

I did, on the thread that you got that information from.

And as I said also on that thread, it means Hunter is a bargain at 0.1 because he’s showing up in polls at 4%, which means that if his contract starts tracking the polling data, an interested person can gain 40X return on investment.


19 posted on 11/09/2007 9:41:03 AM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo
Fine, put your money where your mouth is. $10 will buy you 100 shares of Hunter on the "real money" market (there's nearly 600 being offered at that price). Not much of an investment if you truly believe you'll ever see even a ten-fold improvement. (At 1%, not even the 4% you're vainly clinging to.)

On the other hand, you could, deep down, really know that there's a reason it's been stuck at that price for roughly 4 months now.

20 posted on 11/09/2007 9:54:50 AM PST by kevkrom (“Should government be doing this? And if so, then at what level of government?” - FDT)
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To: kevkrom

That’s what I like about this market as an indicator. Money talks.

Note that Fred is at 6%, so he could be a “bargain” but you might want to read why the Intrade crowd thinks he is at 6%.

Intrade forum discussion
http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1805.page


21 posted on 11/09/2007 10:34:08 AM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Plutarch; daylilly
Plutarch posted this on another thread. I've never mastered getting graphs to work.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1923437/posts?page=72#72

To: daylilly
People who participate in gambling in any form are not going to be conservatives IMHO. That isn’t anyone whose advice I care to hear. Intrade is worthless.
Intrade is worthless, eh? Yup, in 2006 the Republicans losing both House and Senate was trading at about 80% at worthless Intrade, while at FR only 7.4% correctly predicted the eventual outcome. You may not care to hear the advice of the those horrid gamblers, unless you want the most accurate prediction you can find.



http://aycu08.webshots.com/image/34127/2003512492726302557_rs.jpg

[graph]
72 posted on 11/09/2007 11:39:31 AM PST by Plutarch
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22 posted on 11/09/2007 11:52:55 AM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo
Ouch, that makes my eyes hurt. ;-)

How's this?:

Free Image Hosting at allyoucanupload.com

23 posted on 11/09/2007 12:07:29 PM PST by Plutarch
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To: Plutarch
Believe it or not, that's the first time I've posted an outside pic.

I don't count cutting & pasting from Blogthings...

You Are 4% Nerdy
You are definitely not nerdy - in fact, you probably don't know any nerds.
You probably care a little too much about your image. No one will know if you secretly watch Star Trek reruns!
How Nerdy Are You?

24 posted on 11/09/2007 12:22:31 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Plutarch; HerrBlucher

Bookies: Thompson Out, Rudy and Mitt Tops
The Street.com ^ | November 9, 2007 | Brett Arends

Posted on 11/10/2007 12:37:49 PM PST by Canticle_of_Deborah

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1923908/posts?page=27#27

To: HerrBlucher
You always spoil the fun of the anti-Freds.....:)
Oh, now Intrade is bogus. Show us your post dismissing the signicance of Intrade on this thread:

Fred Takes Lead on InTrade!
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1842292/posts

Thought so. Fred doing well on Intrade = Intrade good. Fred tanking = Intrade bad.

27 posted on 11/10/2007 1:59:49 PM PST by Plutarch
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25 posted on 11/10/2007 8:29:58 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Plutarch; All; Petronski

For the last few days I’ve been posting various intrade results side-by-side with polling data in the hopes of bringing attention that Hunter is slowly gaining traction and also that Thompson has been tanking on Intrade.

Petronski doesn’t like what I write, even though s(he) posted on the thread where Fred was leading on Intrade and also he says that Intrade is data. Petronski doesn’t like it so much that he calls me a liar, but he refuses to come onto this efficacy thread where it is properly discussed.

It is my contention that posting Intrade futures side-by-side with polling data as we go into the primaries is a very useful tool. Petronski calls it a lie. I will post one of the exchanges and a pointer to the thread so that readers can see for themselves. If it really is a lie, I am determined to correct it so that it reflects the truth.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1842292/posts

To: devere
Well, it’s interesting to see someone else posting Intrade results.

It’s a wide open race, might as well back the most conservative man.

According to Polls, Fred Thompson Foundering
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1925179/posts

Here’s what I’ve been posting lately.

Here’s a recent poll showing Hunter at 4%.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28889/republicans_2008_giuliani_28_thompson_19

Here’s an intrade link to the forum site discussing how Hunter might be gaining traction.
http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1797.page

Here’s one showing Fred at 6%, and discussing why.
http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1805.page

One thing prediction markets are better at — their only bias is whether someone can make money trading the futures contracts.

The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets
The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts

Posted on 11/08/2007 12:21:43 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum

Fred has lost ~30 points at Intrade over the last few weeks, looks like it’s stabilizing at ~6%.

Thompson Tanking in Futures Markets (Intrade, IEM)
Intrade; Iowa Electronic Markets ^ | October 31, 2008

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1919127/posts

The Dropout contract for Thompson has an ask price 2 points higher than last trade. There is no Dropout contract for Hunter.

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

DROPOUT.DEC07.(F)THOMPSON
Fred Thompson to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Dec 2007 M 6.0 9.2 4.0 0 0

37 posted on 11/14/2007 6:53:53 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo
Here’s one showing Fred at 6%, and discussing why.
Still a lie.

38 posted on 11/14/2007 6:54:47 PM PST by Petronski (Willardcare abortions $50 each, $25 per twin. Ask for S&H Stamps!)
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To: Kevmo
Fred has lost ~30 points at Intrade over the last few weeks, looks like it’s stabilizing at ~6%.
Nope, still a lie. Not a percentage, just a futures price.

39 posted on 11/14/2007 6:55:55 PM PST by Petronski (Willardcare abortions $50 each, $25 per twin. Ask for S&H Stamps!)
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To: Petronski
Oh, cool, it’s Petronski coming in and bumping the thread with his nonsense. Or was that her nonsense? We never did clear that up. I checked today and Fred was at 6%, with an upward looking trend to 6.5 or so.

40 posted on 11/14/2007 6:57:04 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Petronski
Asked & answered yesterday.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1925179/posts

41 posted on 11/14/2007 6:58:29 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo
Not a percentage. You’re lying trying to make Fred look bad. These are not polling percentages, they’re futures prices.

42 posted on 11/14/2007 6:58:39 PM PST by Petronski (Willardcare abortions $50 each, $25 per twin. Ask for S&H Stamps!)
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To: Kevmo
Asked & answered yesterday.
Yep, you were lying yesterday, were notified about it, and are still lying about it today.

43 posted on 11/14/2007 6:59:13 PM PST by Petronski (Willardcare abortions $50 each, $25 per twin. Ask for S&H Stamps!)
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To: Petronski
You’re right. Again. I think that must be the umpteenth time I’ve said that. They’re futures percentages, which have better predictor value than polling numbers. As you have been notified, and have chosen not to engage on the Efficacy thread, even though you chose to post on the thread where Fred once had the lead. That means you simply don’t like what Intrade has to say today, though you once liked what it had to say, and yesterday you called it DATA.

Thanks for bumping this thread.

Fred Takes Lead on InTrade!
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1842292/posts

48 posted on 11/14/2007 7:08:31 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Petronski
Thanks for bumping the thread. Sorry you don’t like what Intrade has to say in terms of the data it points out to folks about your candidate.

53 posted on 11/14/2007 7:12:55 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo
Intrade doesn’t say what you claim it says. That’s your lie.

54 posted on 11/14/2007 7:13:53 PM PST by Petronski (Willardcare abortions $50 each, $25 per twin. Ask for S&H Stamps!)
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To: Petronski
It’s not a percentage, it’s a future price.
***Asked and answered on that other thread.

For the benefit of lurkers

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/tradesports/help/howitworks.html#tellmewhatthepricesmean

Tell me what the prices mean
Since our contracts trade between 0 and 100, you can think of the price at any time to be the percentage probability of that event occurring. Let’s go back to our George Bush example, on December 1, 2003 the George Bush re-election contract was trading at 63, meaning, traders gave him a 63% chance of being re-elected.

If you thought President Bush will be re-elected you would expect that price to go up - towards 100. In that case, if you bought one contract at 63 and Mr. Bush did get re-elected you would make the difference between your purchase price - 63 - and the closing price - 100 - or 37 points. How much profit would that be? Click here.

It’s important to realize that you don’t have to hold your contracts until the result of the event is decided - you can get out of your position at any time until the event is over. So if you change your mind about the outcome you can come back to the exchange, enter an order and close out your position, whether it’s for a profit or loss depends on you.

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Who determines the prices?

You do - along with thousands of traders around the world. Just like the price of Microsoft stock is determined by the buying & selling activities of thousands of traders in the financial markets, the price of our contracts are determined by traders, like you, who are confident enough to back up their opinion by risking real money.

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55 posted on 11/14/2007 7:14:49 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: captnorb
This is the first time I’ve felt hopeful about our political process in fifty years. Maybe it really can work the way it’s supposed to, if we can keep these short-sighted ideologues from hogging the road and holding up traffic.

56 posted on 11/14/2007 7:15:00 PM PST by Eastbound
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To: Kevmo
Intrade doesn’t say what you claim it says. You’re misrepresenting the meaning of the numbers. That’s your lie.

57 posted on 11/14/2007 7:15:16 PM PST by Petronski (Willardcare abortions $50 each, $25 per twin. Ask for S&H Stamps!)
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To: Kevmo
I’m not bound to expose your lies on your little ‘efficacy thread.’ I’m going to point them out where you put them.

Intrade doesn’t say what you claim it says. You’re misrepresenting the meaning of the numbers. That’s your lie.

61 posted on 11/14/2007 7:16:55 PM PST by Petronski (Willardcare abortions $50 each, $25 per twin. Ask for S&H Stamps!)
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To: Kevmo
“you can think of the price as the percentage.”

It’s a price, not a percentage.

I’m not bound to expose your lies on your little ‘efficacy thread.’ I’m going to point them out where you put them.

Intrade doesn’t say what you claim it says. You’re misrepresenting the meaning of the numbers. That’s your lie.

62 posted on 11/14/2007 7:17:46 PM PST by Petronski (Willardcare abortions $50 each, $25 per twin. Ask for S&H Stamps!)
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To: Petronski
Asked & answered.

Thanks for bumping the thread.

63 posted on 11/14/2007 7:18:10 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo
I’m happy to call attention to your lies, here, where you’ve posted them.

Intrade doesn’t say what you claim it says. You’re misrepresenting the meaning of the numbers. That’s your lie.

64 posted on 11/14/2007 7:19:50 PM PST by Petronski (Willardcare abortions $50 each, $25 per twin. Ask for S&H Stamps!)
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To: Petronski
Asked & answered.

Thanks for bumping the thread.

65 posted on 11/14/2007 7:20:26 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo
I’m happy to call attention to your lies, here, where you’ve posted them.

Intrade doesn’t say what you claim it says. You’re misrepresenting the meaning of the numbers. That’s your lie.

66 posted on 11/14/2007 7:21:51 PM PST by Petronski (Willardcare abortions $50 each, $25 per twin. Ask for S&H Stamps!)
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To: Petronski
Asked & answered.

Thanks for bumping the thread.

67 posted on 11/14/2007 7:22:48 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo
OK. Buy a bunch of Fred futures.

Thank me when he wins and you’re rich. Split your profits with me 50/50.

68 posted on 11/14/2007 7:23:03 PM PST by RockinRight (Just because you’re pro-life and talk about God a lot doesn’t mean you’re a conservative.)
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To: Kevmo
I’m happy to keep your lies bumped. Exposes your deception.

69 posted on 11/14/2007 7:24:22 PM PST by Petronski (Willardcare abortions $50 each, $25 per twin. Ask for S&H Stamps!)
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To: RockinRight
I think Hunter is a better bargain. He currently polls at 4% and if Intrade started to track that you would get 40X return on your investment.

Fred, on the other hand, is the only candidate I know of who has lost ~30 points on Intrade. Probably not as good of a bet.

70 posted on 11/14/2007 7:24:45 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Petronski
Asked & answered.

Thanks for bumping the thread.

71 posted on 11/14/2007 7:25:12 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo
Intrade says what it says. People can see for themselves.
It says what it says, not what you claim. Happily, people can see through your lies.

72 posted on 11/14/2007 7:25:26 PM PST by Petronski (Willardcare abortions $50 each, $25 per twin. Ask for S&H Stamps!)
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To: Petronski
We can let them decide for themselves. Caveat subscriptor.

73 posted on 11/14/2007 7:26:14 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo
Be careful of the liar. He posts as Kevmo.

74 posted on 11/14/2007 7:27:02 PM PST by Petronski (Willardcare abortions $50 each, $25 per twin. Ask for S&H Stamps!)
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To: Petronski; devere
Oh, look. Someone else posting Intrade data. You might want to ping them. It’s 2 for the price of 1 day for stalkers.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1925892/posts?page=37#25

75 posted on 11/14/2007 7:29:03 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Petronski
You misread this post. And I would leave it to the readers to decide whether your accusations were a result of some other misreading.

From my original post:
Here’s a recent poll showing Hunter at 4%.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28889/republicans_2008_giuliani_28_thompson_19

That means Hunter polls at 4%. Hunter’s futures at Intrade, if they were at 4% would not be the kind of bargain I was talking about because you couldn’t get 40X return by tracking to the poll data.

Thanks for bumping the thread.

79 posted on 11/14/2007 7:48:10 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Charles Martel
You tell me, did Petronski misread post #70 or not?

If he/she misread that post, isn’t it a distinct possibility that he/she misread the other posts that gets their panties in a wad?

80 posted on 11/14/2007 7:50:31 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Petronski; kevkrom
Well, what a sucker I am!

The highly-predictive Intrade futures contract is valued at .1 (divide by ten and that’s a penny, folks), but Hunter Duncan actually DID poll at 4% in the notoriously inaccurate ARG, near as I can tell.

That’s the danger here. Fred is quoted at 6% (actually not a polling number, just a futures contract price, and definitely NOT a percentage) and Hunter is quoted at 4% (an actual, albeit shabby, poll) and an apples-to-oranges comparison misleads the reader.

That’s how good—and how dangerous—this lie is, it’s designed to deceive (to play a shell game between the two very different kind of data), and it works.

Let’s review:

Intrade futures contracts:

Fred about $6
Hunter $.1

Rasmussen daily polling:

Fred 12%
Hunter - too low to ascertain, 2% shared with others.

81 posted on 11/14/2007 7:51:06 PM PST by Petronski (Willardcare abortions $50 each, $25 per twin. Ask for S&H Stamps!)
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To: Kevmo
It’s all explained at #80.

I’m going to keep reposting that as long as you keep misrepresenting the numbers.

82 posted on 11/14/2007 7:52:00 PM PST by Petronski (Willardcare abortions $50 each, $25 per twin. Ask for S&H Stamps!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
What does Fred mean by ‘Secure our Borders’? Is he supporting the invisible fence border monitoring system or is he supporting the physical double border fence?

83 posted on 11/14/2007 7:59:47 PM PST by Calpernia (Hunters Rangers - Raising the Bar of Integrity http://www.barofintegrity.us)
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To: Petronski; kevkrom
That’s how good—and how dangerous—this lie is,
***Yup. What you just posted was either a lie or a mistake. You cc’d Kevkrom, not me. I’ve seen others do that in the hopes that the post would be overlooked.

I will let the readers decide for themselves.

It took you this long to actually start using the data. You said, “highly-predictive Intrade futures contract is valued at .1 “ which means that you consider it highly-predictive and good data. Now, I happen to not like the fact that Hunter is valued so low, but I’m posting Intrade results right & left because they are what they are. But you go around calling me a liar after you’ve posted on the thread where Fred was leading at Intrade and accepting the good news as good data.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1842292/posts

You and I went round & round on that other thread where it was agreed this was an apples-to-oranges comparison (metaphor put forth by me, not you) and I said it was reasonable as long as I called it fruit. Apples are apples, oranges are oranges, both are fruit. Polling data are polls, Intrade is futures contracts, and both are data.

I think our exchanges should prove educational on the efficacy thread so I think I will copy them over to there.

Thanks for bumping the thread.

84 posted on 11/14/2007 8:01:47 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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26 posted on 11/14/2007 8:15:10 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo; kevkrom

Twenty-five posts in six days? This thread is a graveyard for crickets, filled with tumbleweeds.

You’re splashing your lying comparisons all over the forum, that’s where I’m going to respond.

When you compare 4% for Hunter in the ARG poll to $6 in Intrade (and mislabel it a percentage), you are being deliberately misleading.

Intrade:
Hunter: .1
Fred: >$6

Rasmussen:
Hunter <2%
Fred: 12%

Leading people to believe the $6 contract price is a 6% poll result is a lie.

I am going to continue correcting you in this fashion as often as I can until you stop the misrepresentation.


27 posted on 11/14/2007 8:21:19 PM PST by Petronski (Willardcare abortions $50 each, $25 per twin. Ask for S&H Stamps!)
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To: Kevmo

From that other thread.

To: Kevmo
Tou said, “highly-predictive Intrade futures contract is valued at .1 “ which means that you consider it highly-predictive and good data.
No, it means I’m a sarcastic SOB.

Polling data are polls, Intrade is futures contracts, and both are data.

But they cannot be compared one to the other. Clearly labeling them.

Comparing Fred at 6% (not a percentage) to Hunter at 4% (a polling percentage) is a lie.

Either compare Intrade futures (.1 for Hunter, 6.x for Fred) or compare poll results (Fred at 11%, Hunter <2%)

Anything else is deceptive, and it has been made abundantly clear to you.

Apples are apples, oranges are oranges, both are fruit.

And in this case, intercomparing them is a lie.

86 posted on 11/14/2007 8:06:52 PM PST by Petronski (Willardcare abortions $50 each, $25 per twin. Ask for S&H Stamps!)
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To: Petronski
No, it means I’m a sarcastic SOB.
***Then that is a retraction? Are you going to retract what you said yesterday when you called it data? I posted much of our exchange over on the efficacy thread where this discussion belongs.

Since you seem to honestly believe that “intercomparing them is a lie”, I will post this over at the efficacy thread also. That’s where it belongs. This is an immigration thread.

91 posted on 11/14/2007 8:21:28 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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28 posted on 11/14/2007 8:23:40 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo

Of course, you didn’t copy this one:

***Then that is a retraction? Are you going to retract what you said yesterday when you called it data?

There’s nothing to retract. You can’t recognize sarcasm? Not my fault.

Of course it’s data, why would I deny it’s data?

It just doesn’t mean what you claim, in subtle ways designed to mislead. I’m not going to confine myself to your little slum thread when you’re spreading your misrepresentations all over the forum. Not as long as I’m here.


29 posted on 11/14/2007 8:24:06 PM PST by Petronski (Willardcare abortions $50 each, $25 per twin. Ask for S&H Stamps!)
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To: Petronski

Feel free to suggest how this data should be presented, in such a manner as you would not consider it to be a lie.


30 posted on 11/14/2007 8:24:57 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Petronski

I should have deleted:

“Of course you didn’t copy this one.” This post belongs in both threads, but I put it here first.


31 posted on 11/14/2007 8:25:08 PM PST by Petronski (Willardcare abortions $50 each, $25 per twin. Ask for S&H Stamps!)
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To: Petronski

It wasn’t there when I copied & pasted.


32 posted on 11/14/2007 8:25:33 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo

#27.

If you’re listing Intrade data, it’s a dollar figure, not a percentage, and labeled as such (a price).

If you’re listing polling data, it’s a percentage, and labeled as polling data (a percentage, with source).


33 posted on 11/14/2007 8:26:20 PM PST by Petronski (Willardcare abortions $50 each, $25 per twin. Ask for S&H Stamps!)
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To: Kevmo

Yes, my apology. I explained in #31.


34 posted on 11/14/2007 8:27:02 PM PST by Petronski (Willardcare abortions $50 each, $25 per twin. Ask for S&H Stamps!)
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To: Petronski

OK, I have modified the post. Let me know if it needs further cleansing.

It’s a wide open race, might as well back the most conservative man.

According to Polls, Fred Thompson Foundering
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1925179/posts

Here’s what I’ve been posting lately.

Here’s a recent poll showing Hunter at 4%.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28889/republicans_2008_giuliani_28_thompson_19

Here’s an intrade link to the forum site discussing how Hunter might be gaining traction.
http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1797.page

Here’s an intrade link to the forum site discussing how Fred is at $6, which corresponds to the traders believing he has a 6% chance of winning the nomination, and discussing why.
http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1805.page

One thing prediction markets are better at — their only bias is whether someone can make money trading the futures contracts.

The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets
The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts

Posted on 11/08/2007 12:21:43 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum

Fred has lost ~30 points at Intrade over the last few weeks, looks like it’s stabilizing at ~6%.

Thompson Tanking in Futures Markets (Intrade, IEM)
Intrade; Iowa Electronic Markets ^ | October 31, 2008

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1919127/posts

The Dropout contract for Thompson has an ask price 2 points higher than last trade. There is no Dropout contract for Hunter.

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

DROPOUT.DEC07.(F)THOMPSON
Fred Thompson to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Dec 2007 M 6.0 9.2 4.0 0 0

37 posted on 11/14/2007 6:53:53 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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35 posted on 11/14/2007 8:29:17 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo
We have not been communicating and it is my job to make myself understood, which I obviously haven't done. Sorry.

I'm laying here in the dark and I came up with an idea. We must be careful not to say Smith is bigger than Jones because Smith is 6ft. 2in. and Jones weighs 95kg.: two different measures, two kinds of units. Or Jackson is the better athlete because he can run a 9.8 100m dash, while Jameson can only throw the shot put 52ft. 2in. Again, two measures of athleticism, two kinds of units.

One of those athletes is better, one of those men is bigger, but the data (and the units) must be made to match. We'd have to ask, which man is faster? Which man throws further? Who is taller? Who is fatter?

That's all I meant to say.

36 posted on 11/14/2007 8:40:57 PM PST by Petronski (Willardcare abortions $50 each, $25 per twin. Ask for S&H Stamps!)
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To: Petronski

That’s a lot different than calling someone a liar.

I’ll be proceeding forth with the post that I put up for your “peer review” as long as it meets the standard of not being a lie. I know you don’t like what it says, but that’s a different issue. But I will not knowingly move forward with lies. Inaccuracies and missteps, they happen all the time and I welcome corrections.


37 posted on 11/14/2007 8:44:42 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo

Fair enough. Be well.


38 posted on 11/14/2007 8:54:46 PM PST by Petronski (Willardcare abortions $50 each, $25 per twin. Ask for S&H Stamps!)
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To: ellery; sevenbak

To: sevenbak; ellery
Interesting. What big issues has it been wrong on?
***I don’t know. Ellery had one example, I’m sure there are others. I’m hoping to see the data posted on the efficacy thread.

The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets
The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts

208 posted on 11/14/2007 11:10:52 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo; sevenbak
I’ve been digging — sorry, it’s taking me a while. The biggest problem is that I can’t find historical InTrade data online (at least for free) except in sporadic news reports. All the IEM data is online — Kevmo, in your experience does IEM track Intrade (a much bigger market) well enough for IEM to be a useful data set? Unfortunately, the IEM doesn’t have the state primary races — so it would be ideal if we could access historical Intrade data.

Another problem (at least as it relates to assessing this primary) is that we have data from only two similar, multiple-candidate primaries to evaluate (the GOP primary in 2000, and the donk primary in ‘04). Two-candidate general election races are much less complex and thus less pertinent to our current situation (’though still interesting).

Anyhoo, I’ve run across two instances so far where the prediction markets got it wrong. Caveat: it’s important to remember, as was noted in Kevmo’s research, that no one is claiming that prediction markets can tell us what’s going to happen. The issue is whether they are a better predictor than the polls. So, to fully evaluate the two instances below, we have to document what the polls said (i.e., were they even more off than Intrade?) In the first instance, the article says that the prediction market basically tracked the polls, so everyone got it wrong.

The biggest prediction market error was the dem primary run-up to the Iowa caucuses:

“Consider the Democratic caucus in Iowa. It is the first and most influential primary of the entire process, and it was the most anticipated primary of the season. There had been a solid year of campaigning leading up to it. The last three months were replete with intense local media coverage. If any prediction market should function correctly, this one was it.

“Well, right up until a few days before the primary, this market’s prediction was that Dean would win, and do so handily. Only he didn’t. Dean got crushed, and Kerry went on to be the nominee.”

http://www.thestreet.com/p/_rms/rmoney/barryritholtz/10185976.html

Another was from the general election in 2000:

“SM: The IEM predicted Bush would win the popular vote in 2000, which he didn’t. What went wrong?

“TR: IEM predicted about a two-thirds chance that he would win the popular vote, and Gore barely won. In our Winner-Takes-All market, we predict the probabilities of an event. In this case, it was either Bush or Gore taking the majority of the popular vote. When you predict the probability of an event, what you’re going to see is an outcome - either it happened or it didn’t. We predicted that there was a two-thirds chance that Bush would take the popular vote, but that means we also said there was a one-third chance that Gore would, and that’s what happened.”

http://www.smartmoney.com/theproshop/index.cfm?story=20041007

211 posted on 11/14/2007 11:38:38 PM PST by ellery (I don’t remember a constitutional amendment that gives you the right not to be identified-R.Giuliani)
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39 posted on 11/15/2007 8:34:07 AM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: All; Pistolshot

I posted a vanity about Duncan Hunter and Intrade, and Pistolshot brought up some points about efficacy so I’m copying the post here.

(vanity) Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
Self ^ | 11/11/07 | Kevmo

Posted on 11/15/2007 3:43:17 AM PST by Kevmo

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1926032/posts?page=54#54

To: Kevmo; All
Intrade depends solely on those who play and do not constitute the vast majority who have either no idea how or want to participate. It is too easily manipulated by a very few. It may reflect a possible outcome, but it flies in the face of other well known polling organizations.
Even though Duncan is an honorable man, his campaign has failed from the begining. It is honorable not to ‘need consultants, or have people do work for you, or write your own speeches’, but the downside is you are too busy doing the small stuff to concentrate on the major stuff, like RUNNING for POTUS.

When you run a NATIONAL campaign, the objective is to get your message out to the people, not just in specific localities, but NATION-wide. And that takes people, and a management that understands what a NATIONAL campaign entails.

To that end, his campaign management has failed their man, and those of you who cannot see that are fighting a losing cause, as noble as that is, it is still a lost cause.

I know that pains you and the responses will be what they always are, childish and delusional. You will respond with all the failings of every other candidate just to make your self feel better and your guy look good, but only to you.

There will be those who say... “it’s a conspiracy’....”the powers that be are not letting Duncan get his message out”......”the MSM is in cahoots with the Bush administration to muzzle Hunter” No matter that the MSM hates GWB, and there is no basis for them to even be in the same room.

The truth, as painful as it is, is still the truth.

When the NRTL endorsed FDT earlier this week, the Mitt fans, Duncan supporters, Huckabee promoters, and Rudy ravers had a complete breakdown on this forum. More inconsequential, minor-league obscure articles appeared to try and promote ‘your’ candidate.

Face it. The NRTL endorsement is one of the biggest chips to have on your side of the table in this high stakes game.

Next for Fred will be the NRA endorsement, with it’s 6-7 MILLION members. And that will be a very big chip, indeed.

54 posted on 11/15/2007 6:00:40 AM PST by Pistolshot (Never argue with stupid people, they just bring you down to their level and beat you with experience)
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40 posted on 11/15/2007 9:22:57 AM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo

Intrade depends solely on those who play and do not constitute the vast majority who have either no idea how or want to participate. It is too easily manipulated by a very few. It may reflect a possible outcome, but it flies in the face of other well known polling organizations.
***Wrong on that one, as you can see by the article that this thread goes through. Intrade only has one bias: whether you can make money on trading the futures contract of a candidate. In that respect it has a negative bias against underdogs like Hunter because it is hard to sell the contract once you buy it and Intraders really value liquidity.

Even though Duncan is an honorable man, his campaign has failed from the begining.
***I see that sentiment that he is an honorable man a lot. He has respect. You can’t buy that no matter how much money you throw into the pot. His campaign has been frustratingly faltering in the polls — until lately when he started showing up at 4%. In that same time, Thompson’s campaign LOST 30 points at Intrade. Now that’s lousy campaigning.

It is honorable not to ‘need consultants, or have people do work for you, or write your own speeches’, but the downside is you are too busy doing the small stuff to concentrate on the major stuff, like RUNNING for POTUS.
***I agree, which is why we need to get some people on his side doing the small stuff. Back the best man during the primaries because character matters in the presidency — Clinton showed us that.

When you run a NATIONAL campaign, the objective is to get your message out to the people, not just in specific localities, but NATION-wide. And that takes people, and a management that understands what a NATIONAL campaign entails.
***Yup. And he’s running a national campaign and needs you and folks like you to help with it. Why back someone who has taken a gift of name recognition and turned it into a liability?

To that end, his campaign management has failed their man, and those of you who cannot see that are fighting a losing cause, as noble as that is, it is still a lost cause.
***It will be determined at the primaries. If anyone has lost the cause, it’s the guy who has lost poll numbers and 30 intrade points.

I know that pains you and the responses will be what they always are, childish and delusional. You will respond with all the failings of every other candidate just to make your self feel better and your guy look good, but only to you.
***We shall see. Thanks for bumping the thread.

There will be those who say... “it’s a conspiracy’....”the powers that be are not letting Duncan get his message out”......”the MSM is in cahoots with the Bush administration to muzzle Hunter” No matter that the MSM hates GWB, and there is no basis for them to even be in the same room.
***Yes, there will be those who say that. And that is what needs to be overcome for my candidate. But my strategy uses that fact as an ASSET rather than a LIABILITY.

The truth, as painful as it is, is still the truth.
***I agree. And we shall see.

When the NRTL endorsed FDT earlier this week, the Mitt fans, Duncan supporters, Huckabee promoters, and Rudy ravers had a complete breakdown on this forum. More inconsequential, minor-league obscure articles appeared to try and promote ‘your’ candidate.
***I didn’t have a breakdown. I congratulated the Fred supporters on their obvious coup.

Face it. The NRTL endorsement is one of the biggest chips to have on your side of the table in this high stakes game.
***I do face it and I think you are right. But that doesn’t mean the NRTL is right. They made a political calculation and it could backfire on them.

Next for Fred will be the NRA endorsement, with it’s 6-7 MILLION members. And that will be a very big chip, indeed.
***Again you would be right. That doesn’t mean the NRA would be right. Again it could backfire.


41 posted on 11/15/2007 9:33:59 AM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo
Sorry, Intrade is dependent on participation.

Say for example there are 100 conservative voters trading. 60 of them are Duncan supporters, 20 of them for Fred, 20 of them spread among the others.

The stock in Duncan is inflated artificially because the shares available are all bought and garnered by his supporters. Each is looking for a bargain to purchase any loose shares out there, creating a high demand/high price.

Now, the Fred supporters and the also-rans, are very few for the available shares, that means the price deflates as there is a glut of shares to purchase. And that is because not many other supporters care or want to take the time to play in Intrade.

It's a false-positive. It shows there is a desperation in the Duncan supporters to show their guy 'winning' somewhere. It doesn't hold water across the nation or in the national polls. And if Intrade had ANY influence, we'd see more activity in areas not controlled by the MSM, like the Internet. And that isn't happening either.

Sorry, the truth is still the truth.

You can promote Intrade as THE source of record, but if there is not universal participation by a vast majority, it is only another dog and pony show that can be manipulated.

42 posted on 11/16/2007 6:00:13 AM PST by Pistolshot (Never argue with stupid people, they just bring you down to their level and beat you with experience)
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To: Pistolshot

Sorry, Intrade is dependent on participation.
Say for example there are 100 conservative voters trading. 60 of them are Duncan supporters, 20 of them for Fred, 20 of them spread among the others.
***Ok, so for the purposes of your illustration I’ll go along with this so that you can suggest there would be a disparate aggregation of support for one candidate. I will point out a couple of things though. One, that does not happen, it’s invariably a simple cross section and having such a bulge is rare. Second, such a level of subtle manipulation in the price would soon show up because the 20 other guys for Fred would know that the price is artificially inflated and maneuver to take advantage of it. There is an example of this actually happening on Sportstrade with the GWB contracts and, basically, the traders ended up taking a bunch of the guy’s money. It would only work if the traders are really stupid and really unobservant, and neither of those is the case.

The stock in Duncan is inflated artificially because the shares available are all bought and garnered by his supporters. Each is looking for a bargain to purchase any loose shares out there, creating a high demand/high price.
***So the Fred guys see the play, they buy Duncan and sell duncan for a little profit here & there back to the duncan supporters, eventually the price for duncan goes to $75, is way beyond what the market really would bear, and all the Thompson supporters are betting short. Eventually the duncan stock crashes and the duncan guys lost their money on the way up and on the way down and the price stabilizes to a real reflection of value.

Now, the Fred supporters and the also-rans, are very few for the available shares, that means the price deflates as there is a glut of shares to purchase. And that is because not many other supporters care or want to take the time to play in Intrade.
***Again this supposition requires the Fred supporters to be unobservant and stupid at the same time. Usually such people don’t play in futures markets and when they do, they lose all their money fast.

It’s a false-positive. It shows there is a desperation in the Duncan supporters to show their guy ‘winning’ somewhere.
***Yes, for awhile there would exist a $75 false positive duncan price, but eventually the roof crashes in and the game is up. It’s a relatively efficient market.

It doesn’t hold water across the nation or in the national polls. And if Intrade had ANY influence, we’d see more activity in areas not controlled by the MSM, like the Internet. And that isn’t happening either.
***That doesn’t make much sense. There are Intrade contracts for things that the MSM doesn’t control, like whether Osama Bin Laden will get captured by such&such date or the price of oil on Jan1,2008.

Sorry, the truth is still the truth.
***And if you intend to show that Intrade & other markets are being manipulated, it will not only be difficult but ultimately fruitless. It has been tried and it did not work. The truth is still the truth: Prediction markets have a better track record than polls.

You can promote Intrade as THE source of record,
***Straw argument. It is not THE source, but ONE of the sources, and if you combine the data of polls + predictive markets you start to see very similar trends. One trend is that early polls are not reliable. Another is that Intrade is getting better at leading the polls, and for that I will cite the fact that polls lagged Intrade on Ron Paul, McCain, and lately, Thompson. It may also be true of Huckabee but I haven’t seen the claim yet.

but if there is not universal participation by a vast majority, it is only another dog and pony show that can be manipulated.
***That’s asked & answered in the article.


43 posted on 11/16/2007 9:38:14 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum
People lie to pollsters but their market bets never lie. Money is a better predictor of voting intention due to its stable nature than sentiment which affective and volatile.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

44 posted on 11/16/2007 9:42:57 PM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

Here’s an interesting article I found on the Intrade forum.

How to Forecast an Election
(And How To Win One!)
https://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/forums/show/3.page

by Leighton Vaughan Williams

Leighton Vaughan Williams is director of the Betting Research Unit and director of the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University.

My first personal experience of the relative merits of opinion polls and betting markets in forecasting the outcome of an election occurred in 1985 in a by-election called to fill a vacant seat for the UK Parliament. The by-election was taking place in a rural corner of Wales in a constituency called Brecon and Radnor. The key players were the Labour and the Liberal candidates. On the day of the election a poll was published in the Daily Mirror newspaper, commissioned from the MORI polling organization. This gave the Labour candidate a commanding 18% lead over the Liberal. Meanwhile, a short walk to the local office of Ladbrokes, the leading bookmaker, found a rather different picture. The odds-makers were making the Liberal the odds-on favorite with the Labour candidate the relative longshot. The late-breaking MORI poll did nothing to change the price. Who won? It was the Liberal, of course, and those who followed the money.

Indeed, it seemed to me even then, well before I studied the subject in any depth, that people’s responses to opinion polls are very sensitive to the form and structure of the questionnaire and that the validity of the findings are even more sensitive to the sample of voters taken and whether those surveyed are likely to vote. Meanwhile, decisions backed by hard-earned money are likely to be very carefully considered and to weigh and discount relevant and irrelevant information in a serious and appropriate fashion.
That’s the theory at least. The most convincing point, however, was that the market had done so much better a job of predicting the election result than the trusted pollster. It was several years before I realized that what applied to the small rural backwater of Brecon and Radnor applied equally well in a study of every U.S. presidential election between 1868 and 1940. In only one year, 1916, did the candidate clearly favored in the betting the month before the election end up losing, when Charles Evans Hughes lost to the incumbent, Woodrow Wilson, in a tight race. (See “Historical Presidential Betting Markets,” Paul W. Rhode and Koleman S. Strumpf, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 18, No. 2, Spring 2004, pp. 127-141.)

The power of the betting markets in assimilating the collective knowledge and wisdom of those willing to back their judgment with money has only increased in recent years as the volume of money wagered has risen dramatically. Indeed, by 2004 the Intrade market model went stratospheric in predictive accuracy as the market favorite won the electoral votes of every single state in that year’s U.S. presidential election. Meanwhile more than one respected pollster and analyst called the race for John Kerry as late as election day itself.

The betting markets saw their best triumph of 2004 in Florida. Even though a number of polls put Kerry ahead in that state, or said the race was too close to call, the betting markets consistently showed Bush would win Florida comfortably.

Indeed, if the Democrats had paid as much attention to the markets as the polls, I am convinced that the election result would have been different. They could have downsized their effort in Florida and focused their efforts more on other swing states where betting sites showed the race was much closer.

Intrade followed up in 2006 when the market favorite won each and every Senate seat up for election. Moreover, in large part the stronger the favorite, the bigger was the margin of victory.

Follow the Money
The assumption, or at least the hypothesis, must be that the accuracy of the betting markets is created out of the information and intuition of many people rather than the conclusions of a few. Those myriad people feed in the best information and intuition they can because their own financial rewards depend directly upon them. And it really is a case of “follow the money” because those who know the most are likely to bet the most.
Moreover, the lower the transaction costs (there is no tax on betting in the UK) and information costs (in never more plentiful supply due to the Internet) the more efficient we might expect betting markets to become in translating information today into forecasts of tomorrow. The rise in the importance of person-to-person betting exchanges like Betfair offers another reason why the markets are becoming ever more efficient in predicting the future. These exchanges differ from traditional betting markets by eliminating the odds-setting bookmaker, instead providing the technology to match up the best offers to back and lay an outcome on offer from all the clients of the exchange. In so doing they ensure that the margins implicit in the odds are lower than they have ever been. For all these reasons, betting markets today are likely to provide better forecasts than they have done at any time in history.

Buoyed by this enthusiasm for the power of market forces I was sufficiently confident, when asked by The Economist magazine, to call the winner and the seat majority in the 2005 British General Election over two weeks out. My prediction of a 60-seat majority for the Labour Party, repeated in an interview on the BBC Today program was challenged in a BBC World Service debate with the chairman of the MORI polling organization. He wanted to bet me that his figure of a Labour majority of over 100 was a better estimate. I declined the bet and saved him some money. The Labour majority was a little over 60 seats.

In October of this year The Economist ran a follow-up article on election betting, asking me the likely outcome of the British General Election if Prime Minister Gordon Brown, then actively considering his options, decided to ask the Queen for the requisite dissolution of Parliament. After consulting the markets, I declared his odds of a majority just slightly better than even. “So,” I asked, “is the Prime Minister willing to risk his majority on the toss of a coin?” The answer was no.

Low-Volume and Play-Money Exchanges
This is not to say that all betting markets are always right. The Iowa Electronic Markets have been allowing selective trading for modest amounts of money on their exchange since 1988, with some success. Nevertheless, their odds were far off the mark in the 2000 election, predicting that Mr. Bush would win a larger share of the popular vote than Mr. Gore (meanwhile, the real-money “spread betting markets,” available to significant trading volume in the UK, had the electoral winner priced up as a dead-heat). Moreover, the Iowa markets failed to predict the Republican victory in the Senate in the mid-term elections in 2002 and have struggled to maintain their foothold at the top end of predictive accuracy since the rise of the high-volume exchanges. Perhaps this is because Iowa’s markets keep bets to a small size, which puts less pressure on traders to get their predictions right. Perhaps it’s a blip. Time will tell and these low-volume markets, as well as play-money exchanges such as Newsfutures, continue to command respect.

Forecasting elections is not simply a matter of comparing the accuracy of polls with betting markets, however. There is a sizeable literature on the value of econometric models, which take account of such factors as employment, inflation, interest rates, incumbency, in predicting election outcomes. Other methodologies include various ways of weighting the opinions of political scientists, political journalists, political pundits and experts of other stripes, in forecasting the winners and losers.

In my book, Information Efficiency in Financial and Betting Markets, published in 2005 by Cambridge University Press, I employed a blind “moment-in-time” case study, conducted exactly a month before the 2004 U.S. presidential election, to compare and contrast the forecasts implicit in each method. I was left with least confidence in econometric models and most in betting markets, which is what I expected.

One interesting angle, though, is whether a combination of one or more of these methodologies, weighted in one way or another, can do better than any individual forecasting methodology. Just as interesting is the extent to which the accuracy of forecasts derived from election betting markets is affected by altering the structure of the market. For example, is the accuracy of these forecasts affected by the nature of rewards within these markets — whether participants use their own money or “play money” to make trades in the prediction market; is it for example affected by whether artificial limits are placed on the amount of money used by market participants to trade? More generally, to what extent is the accuracy of forecasts derived from election prediction markets affected by altering the structure of the prediction market?

The bottom line, therefore, is not to assume that betting markets provide all the answers, though sometimes it seems like they do. We must always be looking to improve our predictions. And when the markets do fail, we must not be afraid to ask why. When these prediction markets succeed, we must also ask why, and whether they could do even better.

These questions and more are at the forefront of two new journals, published by the University of Buckingham Press, namely The Journal of Prediction Markets and The Journal of Gambling Business and Economics.
On recent evidence, then, some markets have seemed so powerful in predicting election outcomes that one might be forgiven for bothering to turn out to vote at all. Of course, that makes no sense. What does make sense, however, is that political operatives need to pay more attention to the markets in planning their election strategy. If those close to Mr. Kerry had listened to this advice in 2004, the senator from Massachusetts would in my convinced opinion now be President Kerry. Any sophisticated campaign needs to make sure that it doesn’t repeat that mistake.

For those who want to know more, the Betting Research Unit at Nottingham Business School, now linked to the newly-formed Political Forecasting Unit at the same institution, is just an e-mail (leighton.vaughan-williams@ntu.ac.uk) away.

In conclusion, recent years have witnessed groundbreaking shifts in the way in which betting is taxed, regulated and perceived by economic theorists. This means that betting markets will become more than just a major part of our future. Properly utilized they will be able to tell us what that future is likely to be! We seem therefore to have created, almost by accident, a “high-tech” crystal ball that taps into the accumulated expertise of mankind and makes it available to all. The challenge now is to make the best use of it.

Copyright © 2007 POLLING REPORT, INC.

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According to Intrade, the winner of the December 12th GOP debate was... Duncan Hunter.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1938773/posts


45 posted on 12/19/2007 4:11:56 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo

USC was a 41 point favorite over Stanford, in a much more informed, much more “efficient” market than this one. A few people made a lot of money on Stanford because they dismissed conventional wisdom for some reason. Gut instinct, emotions, or they knew something the rest of the market didn’t. The market blew that call. Markets are not about predicting. They are about opinions on predicting. With a finite pool of money (due to low participation), they will never be fully efficient.

Futures markets like this reflect conventional wisdom. That’s all you can really say about them.


46 posted on 12/19/2007 4:46:14 PM PST by TN4Liberty (A liberal is someone who believes Scooter Libby should be in jail and Bill Clinton should not.)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

bump


47 posted on 12/19/2007 4:47:48 PM PST by VOA
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To: TN4Liberty

Just one more comment... if not for uncertainty about the predictions, there would be no market. It is the uncertaintly that makes it valuable. If the predicted results were certain, the market would move to one person, paying $1 for every $1 invested. Kind of a silly exercise at that point.


48 posted on 12/19/2007 4:49:05 PM PST by TN4Liberty (A liberal is someone who believes Scooter Libby should be in jail and Bill Clinton should not.)
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To: TN4Liberty

Futures markets like this reflect conventional wisdom. That’s all you can really say about them.
***Well, this article says one more thing about them: they’re more reliable than polls. Look through FR to see how much politicos and pundits rely upon polls.

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According to Intrade, the winner of the December 12th GOP debate was... Duncan Hunter.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1938773/posts


49 posted on 12/19/2007 8:12:17 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: JohnnyZ

Over on this thread, Johnnyz basically had this stuff to say about the efficacy of prediction markets, so I’m posting my response here.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1941807/posts?page=75#75

To: Kevmo
Intrade has a new set of contracts, covering the possibility of brokered conventions. Bid is at 15%, ask is at 25%, earlier sold at 50%.
I don’t buy into the market predictions on politics.

They should be better than taking the straight result of a single poll, or even of a poll aggregate, because they use the wisdom of crowds — but the wisdom of crowds thing is predicated on people making individual judgements. Instead, you get a herd mentality, which results in improper valuations.

Much better is something like the Tarrance Group(??), where experienced pollsters examine detailed data, with experience and judgements and project a finish with great accuracy. Or, using my own political judgement, and my own reading of polls. I don’t have as much data as those guys but I have almost as much as something like Intrade, and much better judgement than the masses of people who bought Britney Spears CDs imo.

Cheers.

75 posted on 12/20/2007 5:39:00 AM PST by JohnnyZ (victim victim Mitt victim victim Romneyvictim victim victim so persecuted, poor me!)
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***Basically, what you say doesn’t hold any water in the light of what’s been posted on this thread. Also, your opinion isn’t worth all that much to me. If I want to know some strong data on how Giuliani is doing in Nevada lately and over the last few weeks, Intrade is a couple of clicks away. But JohnnyZ, I doubt JohnnyZ has been tracking data in Nevada and soon enough the data generated about brokered conventions will more than outweigh whatever Johnnyz can say with his single, shallow opinion.


50 posted on 12/20/2007 8:35:23 AM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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