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Thompson Tanking in Futures Markets (Intrade, IEM)
Intrade; Iowa Electronic Markets ^ | October 31, 2008

Posted on 10/31/2007 1:17:10 PM PDT by Plutarch

Thompson might still be hanging in there in national polls , but those trading money on the probability of Thompson becoming the nominee are increasingly bearish on his chances.

At one point, the probability of Thompson winning the GOP nomination was trading at 35% at Intrade . Over the last month his position has deteriorated, and in the last several days crumbled.

At Intrade Thompson is trading at 8.4%. At Iowa Electronic Markets 7.1%,

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The validity of future’s markets is sometimes questioned. No one was questioning them, however, when Fred was trading at 35% .

TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: anklebiters; axisofdesperation; fred; fredthompson; gnats; hunterites; internetgambling; intrade; iowa; mittwits; polls; romneysleazemachine; thompson; tradesports
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1 posted on 10/31/2007 1:17:11 PM PDT by Plutarch
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To: Plutarch

Thompson is tanking all over.

2 posted on 10/31/2007 1:18:15 PM PDT by Spiff (<------ Mitt Romney Supporter (Don't tase me, bro!) Go Mitt!
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To: Plutarch
Time to buy, buy, buy!!!!
3 posted on 10/31/2007 1:18:25 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Islam is a religion of peace, and Muslims reserve the right to kill anyone who says otherwise.)
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To: Spiff

Let me know when Intrade elects a POTUS, would ya’?

4 posted on 10/31/2007 1:19:07 PM PDT by papasmurf (sudo apt - get install FRed Thompson)
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To: Plutarch
The validity of future’s markets is sometimes questioned.

Only by idiots.

5 posted on 10/31/2007 1:19:10 PM PDT by Glenn (Free Venezuela!)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

Exactly right. Buy now!!!

6 posted on 10/31/2007 1:19:51 PM PDT by rintense (I'm 4 Thompson!)
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To: Plutarch

He is in California. Was in Newport Beach yesterday and heading north. He fundraiser was better attended then any other here so far.

7 posted on 10/31/2007 1:21:10 PM PDT by edcoil (Reality doesn't say much - doesn't need too)
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To: Plutarch

You can probably make a lot of money at the expense of idiots in this sort of thing. Bet Mitt is betting against himself...

8 posted on 10/31/2007 1:21:43 PM PDT by JohnnyZ (Romney : "not really trying to define what is technically amnesty. I'll let the lawyers decide.")
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To: Plutarch
No one was questioning them, however, when Fred was trading at 35% .

That's because they weren't run by evil Fred haters back then!(sarcasm)

9 posted on 10/31/2007 1:21:55 PM PDT by airborne (Proud to be a conservative! Proud to support Duncan Hunter for President!)
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To: Spiff

If Fred Thompson is “tanking” what do you call someone behind him in the polls? Hint: Mitt Romney.

Republican Presidential Nomination
Giuliani Thompson McCain Romney
28.7% 17.7% 14.3% 11.3%

10 posted on 10/31/2007 1:24:18 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (Your "dirt" on Fred is about as persuasive as a Nancy Pelosi Veteran's Day Speech)
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To: edcoil
I understand Fred's fundraising is doing fine.

The man is putting together a clear platform, has committed no gaffes, is fundraising well, WTH? Amazing how a candidate can generate so much negative press for no apparent reason.

11 posted on 10/31/2007 1:24:54 PM PDT by skeeter
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To: Plutarch

Fortunately, stocks and bonds don’t elect people. LOL! PEOPLE elect people. Reading an election 100 days out is sheer nonsense, and complete guess work, no matter what crystal ball you’re using. The best ANY of us can do is guess. I’m guessing it’s gonna be Fred. LOL And for those who keep posting these “anti-fred” articles, why don’t you just keep telling us the Good Side of your Candidates instead of trying to sell the bad side of someone else’s????

12 posted on 10/31/2007 1:25:20 PM PDT by Rick.Donaldson ( - Visit for lastest on DPRK/Russia/China/Etc --Fred Thompson for Prez.)
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To: Plutarch

Zoinks. From 35 to 7.5%?

13 posted on 10/31/2007 1:26:12 PM PDT by pissant (Duncan Hunter: Warrior, Statesman, Conservative)
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To: Plutarch

By the way, that link about 35% isn’t there anywhere. Wrong link?

14 posted on 10/31/2007 1:26:16 PM PDT by Rick.Donaldson ( - Visit for lastest on DPRK/Russia/China/Etc --Fred Thompson for Prez.)
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To: Rick.Donaldson

and people who want to make money aren’t betting on people electing fred. not a good sign

15 posted on 10/31/2007 1:28:23 PM PDT by ari-freedom (I am for traditional moral values, a strong national defense, and free markets.)
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To: Plutarch; All
Former Senator Fred Thompson is the only candidate that gets it. He makes decisions based on principles. Principles don’t change. You have to stand for something and not change who you are based on the polls. That is what Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani have done and all of the Democrats do it. Give me a leader that will stand by his principles anyday versus someone that stands for everything.

I know many Republicans and conservatives that will stay home if Rudy Giuliani is the candidate. He does not represent our values as conservatives, and never will. Millionaire Mitt Romney is a Republican-in-name-only (RINO ) that simply has everything else and nothing to do. “I guess I’ll just try to buy the presidency”. The White House isn’t for sale! Conservatives will simply stay home and the Democrats will pick up additional seats in the House and probably get the 60 seats in the Senate they need to completely destroy our Country. Nice picture huh?

However, I think Fred can bring America back together, if that’s even possible. America needs a rebirth of patriotism and honor. Republicans also need a rebirth. President Reagan was our last rebirth and he can never be duplicated. Fred Thompson will bring his own down-to-earth common sense to this country. If a conservative runs as a conservative, he will win! Think of it this way: Eight years of another Clinton White House? Now if that is not a sufficient enough reason to pull together as a nation, and fight this socialist liberal takeover of our government, what is? Folks, we are in for the fight of our lives, just as our young men and women are fighting for our freedoms in Iraq and Afghanistan, we must fight for our nation right here and now! I truly believe Fred Thompson is the one man who can pull this nation back together! Rudy Giuliani will just tear us apart.

Fred on the Issues (from

National Security
The first responsibility of government is to protect the American people, the homeland, and our way of life. Today we face the urgent threat of radical Islamic terrorists. Al Qaeda is committed to attacking us here at home, and wants to use weapons of mass destruction (WMD) to kill millions. We must never give them that opportunity. We must defeat the terrorists abroad, and that begins in Iraq and Afghanistan—the central fronts in this global war. We must show the world we have the will to fight and win. A weakened America - or an America that appears weaker - will only encourage further attacks. We must persevere. As Commander-in-Chief, the president must ensure the United States has the means to achieve victory. Presidential leadership requires talking to the American people about these stakes, mapping out a clear vision for success, and devising a comprehensive strategy for achieving it. I am committed to:
* A larger, more capable, and more modern military that can defeat terrorists, deter adversaries, and defend the U.S. and our interests.
* A missile defense system that can protect the U.S. and our allies from long-range ballistic missiles.
* An enhanced intelligence community, with robust human-intelligence capabilities, focused on terrorism and proliferation.
* A robust approach to homeland security that will protect our nation from terrorists and WMD, regardless of where they come from.
* A strengthened system of global alliances to better combat terrorists, proliferators, and traditional threats to our interests.
* A judicial system that deals with the realities of terrorists and unlawful enemy combatants.

Federal Budget and Spending/Budgetary Reform
In a few short years—not a generation from now—a fiscal tsunami that could imperil our security and economic prosperity will hit our nation and place an unfair burden of debt on our children and grandchildren. The tens of trillions of dollars in debt that will be accumulated over the next few decades will do immense harm to our economy. This burden is now estimated at $170,000 per person and $440,000 per family. Time is running out to address this looming crisis. We need market-based approaches to reform that guarantee benefits for those who need them and embrace personal responsibility and cost-effectiveness without raising taxes. Given the scope and urgency of this problem, and the burden it will place on our children, reform is not only an economic necessity, it is a moral imperative that requires action now. I am committed to:
* Opening the government’s fiscal books on this looming crisis for all to see and understand.
* Working with individuals of all political persuasions to develop a comprehensive solution to the pending fiscal crisis.
* Leading and making the hard choices necessary, to include cutting wasteful government spending, to safeguard our security, promote our prosperity, and protect our children and grandchildren from fiscal calamity.

Tax Reform
The U.S. tax code is broken and a burden on U.S. taxpayers and businesses, large and small. Today’s tax code is particularly hostile to savings and investment, and it shows. To make matters worse, its complexity is a drag on our productivity and economic growth. Moreover, taxpayers spend billions of dollars and untold hours each year filling out complicated tax returns, just so they can send more money to Washington, much of it for wasteful programs and the pet projects of special interests. We need lower taxes, and we need to let taxpayers keep more of their hard-earned dollars—they know best where and how to spend them. And we need to make the system simpler and fairer for all. To ensure America’s long term prosperity and economic security, I am committed to:
* Fundamental tax reform built on the principles of simplicity, fairness, and growth.
* A new tax code that gets the government out of our citizens’ pocketbooks, while enhancing U.S. competitiveness abroad.
Dissolution of the IRS as we know it.

Americans have the best healthcare in the world. Some, however, choose not be insured; others cannot afford it. Every American should be able to get health insurance coverage that is affordable, fully accessible, and portable. Coverage should meet their individual needs and put them in control. Those who propose a one-size-fits-all Washington-controlled program ignore the cost, inefficiency, and inadequate care that such a system offers. Access to affordable, portable health care can be made available for all Americans without imposing new mandates or raising taxes. Current government programs must also be streamlined and improved so that those who truly need help can get the health care they need. I am committed to a healthcare system that:
* Realigns programs and creates a system around individual consumers and patients by providing more information and more opportunities to choose affordable health care options that best meet their needs and those of their families.
* Improves the individual health of all Americans by shifting to a system that promotes cost-effective prevention, chronic-care management, and personal responsibility
* Modernizes delivery and administration of care by encouraging the widespread use of clinical best practices, medical information technology, and other innovations.
* Increases competition and consumer choice while streamlining regulations through free-market solutions that benefit individuals and reduce costs for employers.
* Promotes and speeds medical research and life-sciences innovation.

Government Effectiveness
Our government is outdated, inefficient, and wasteful. It is often unable to perform even the most basic tasks our citizens expect. It is no longer enough just to want limited government; the American people deserve more effective government. Given today’s challenges, we cannot afford—and shouldn’t accept—anything less than a nimble, effective, and efficient government that is able to focus its resources on the important issues facing our country. It must be able act on behalf of the American people and our national interests in a timely manner. The key to competent government is strong, committed leadership from the top. The key to good government is good people who are well-managed and put the national interest first. I am committed to:
* Attracting and rewarding the best Americans to serve in government and ensuring they have the authority and resources needed to get the job done.
* Fixing government accounting so tax dollars are properly spent and the American people know exactly what they are being spent on.
* Improving government performance by making agencies accountable for accomplishing their missions on time and within budget.
* Ensuring information technology systems are secure and that they give our government the capacity and effectiveness to get the job done.

Building Strong Families
Strong families are the bedrock of our nation and our culture. They are built around the sanctity of life and the institution of marriage, which is the union of a man and a woman. To counter coarseness in today’s culture that oftentimes victimizes our children and undermines the traditional values parents want to instill, we must not only protect but strengthen the institutions of family and marriage. I am committed to:
* Using the Presidency to encourage policies that promote a culture of life, strengthen the institution of marriage and traditional families, and advance freedom of religion.
* Returning authority to the levels of government closest to families and communities—the states—and then protecting states from further intrusion by the federal government, the judiciary, and other states.
* Combating the spread of obscenity over TV and other media by making sure parents can better exercise their responsibilities.

The United States is a nation of immigrants. Throughout our history, legal immigrants have brought energy, ideas, strength, and diversity to our country, our economy, and our culture. This must continue. But in the post-9/11 world, immigration is more of a national security issue. A government that cannot secure its borders and determine who may enter and who may not, abrogates a fundamental responsibility. I am committed to:
* Securing our borders and enforcing immigration laws. Amnesty is not an option and the toleration of “sanctuary cities” must end.
* Reviewing our immigration laws and policies to ensure they advance our national interests. Uniting Americans by welcoming legal immigrants willing to learn English, assimilate into our communities, and become productive citizens.

A well-educated citizenry is vital to our security, our economy, and our democracy. Despite the tens of billions of dollars spent on education by Washington each year, and the hundreds of federal education programs now in place, our children are still falling behind, particularly in subjects crucial to the global economy in which we live. At a time when America is behind other developed countries in education excellence, the federal role in education is too intrusive and too bureaucratic, and has become part of the problem. State and local governments are closest to the parents, the kids, and the schools, and best situated to implement changes and innovations that best educate children. I am committed to:
* Giving parents more choices in education and schools less bureaucracy.
* Reviewing federal programs for cost-effectiveness, reducing federal mandates, returning education money to the states, and empowering parents by promoting voucher programs, charter schools, and other innovations that enhance education excellence through competition and choice.
* Encouraging students and teachers to pursue careers in science, technology, engineering, and math—fields that are crucial to our security, competitiveness, and prosperity.
* Promoting transparency to assess performance, promote accountability, and share innovations in education at all levels.

Appointing Judges Faithful To Our Constitution
Activist judges across the country seem intent on legislating from the bench to promote a culture of abortion, redefine marriage, and undermine families—in effect re-shaping the values of our entire society without the consent of the people. We need judges who recognize their role in our democracy is to interpret, not make, the law. I am committed to:
* Appointing strict constructionist judges who will interpret the law, not impose their views on us by legislating from the bench.

Energy Security
The energy challenges our nation faces today are real and significant. Our dependence on foreign sources of oil threatens our national security and puts our economic prosperity at risk. America must rise to the challenge and take the steps necessary to become more energy independent before this becomes a crisis. No one solution will solve the energy challenges we face; all ideas must be on the table. Greater energy security will enhance our ability to pursue our foreign policy and national security objectives. Increasing our energy independence and investing in alternative energy sources will also produce a healthier environment. And while we don’t know for certain how or why climate change is occurring, it makes sense to take reasonable steps to reduce CO2 emissions without harming our economy. Overall, I am committed to:
* A balanced approach to energy security that increases domestic supplies, reduces demand for oil and gas, and promotes alternative fuels and other diverse energy sources.
* Investing in renewable and alternative fuels to promote greater energy independence and a cleaner environment.
* An energy policy that invests in the advanced technologies of tomorrow and places more emphasis on conservation and energy efficiency.
* Conducting research and development into technologies that improve the environment, especially the reduction of CO2 emissions.

Second Amendment
I strongly support the Second Amendment of the Constitution, which protects an individual’s right to keep and bear arms. Gun control is touted as a major crime-control measure. But some of the places with the strictest gun-control laws also have high violent-crime rates. Disarming law-abiding citizens does not prevent crime. The answer to violent crime is smart, effective, and aggressive law enforcement. The real effect of these gun-control measures is to place onerous restrictions on law-abiding citizens who use firearms for such legal activities as self-defense, sport-shooting, hunting, and collecting. I am committed to:
* Strictly enforcing existing laws and severely punishing violent criminals.
* Protecting the rights individual Americans enjoy under the Second Amendment.

16 posted on 10/31/2007 1:29:37 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (Your "dirt" on Fred is about as persuasive as a Nancy Pelosi Veteran's Day Speech)
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To: skeeter
The man is putting together a clear platform, has committed no gaffes, is fundraising well, WTH? Amazing how a candidate can generate so much negative press for no apparent reason.

But the man displays no energy, no forcefulness. He's bringing to the campaign the same lackadaisical style that drove his delayed entry.

Not committing any gaffes is hardly a claim that will endear him to primary voters. Where's the beef?

17 posted on 10/31/2007 1:33:12 PM PDT by O6ret
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To: JohnnyZ
Bet Mitt is betting against himself...

That wouldn't be apparent from Mitt's recent numbers, as Romney is doing quite well, trading most recently at 29.3%, and up 2.4% today. If Mitt was betting against himself his numbers would be going down, not up.

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Gee, look at that, Romney is trading for 3.5 x that of Thompson. Things can certainly change!

18 posted on 10/31/2007 1:34:48 PM PDT by Plutarch
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To: Plutarch
If Mitt was betting against himself his numbers would be going down, not up.

Are you slow?

19 posted on 10/31/2007 1:38:02 PM PDT by JohnnyZ (Romney : "not really trying to define what is technically amnesty. I'll let the lawyers decide.")
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
I've narrowed my policy issue interests considerably in the past few years to two or three - with illegal immigration at the top of the list.

So far Fred & Duncan are the ONLY GOP candidates with guts enough to speak unequivocally on the subject, and only Fred is within range.

20 posted on 10/31/2007 1:38:12 PM PDT by skeeter
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