Skip to comments.Thompson Tanking in Futures Markets (Intrade, IEM)
Posted on 10/31/2007 1:17:10 PM PDT by Plutarch
Thompson might still be hanging in there in national polls , but those trading money on the probability of Thompson becoming the nominee are increasingly bearish on his chances.
At one point, the probability of Thompson winning the GOP nomination was trading at 35% at Intrade . Over the last month his position has deteriorated, and in the last several days crumbled.
At Intrade Thompson is trading at 8.4%. At Iowa Electronic Markets 7.1%,
The validity of futures markets is sometimes questioned. No one was questioning them, however, when Fred was trading at 35% .
Thompson is tanking all over.
Let me know when Intrade elects a POTUS, would ya’?
Only by idiots.
Exactly right. Buy now!!!
He is in California. Was in Newport Beach yesterday and heading north. He fundraiser was better attended then any other here so far.
You can probably make a lot of money at the expense of idiots in this sort of thing. Bet Mitt is betting against himself...
That's because they weren't run by evil Fred haters back then!(sarcasm)
If Fred Thompson is “tanking” what do you call someone behind him in the polls? Hint: Mitt Romney.
Republican Presidential Nomination
Giuliani Thompson McCain Romney
28.7% 17.7% 14.3% 11.3%
The man is putting together a clear platform, has committed no gaffes, is fundraising well, WTH? Amazing how a candidate can generate so much negative press for no apparent reason.
Fortunately, stocks and bonds don’t elect people. LOL! PEOPLE elect people. Reading an election 100 days out is sheer nonsense, and complete guess work, no matter what crystal ball you’re using. The best ANY of us can do is guess. I’m guessing it’s gonna be Fred. LOL And for those who keep posting these “anti-fred” articles, why don’t you just keep telling us the Good Side of your Candidates instead of trying to sell the bad side of someone else’s????
Zoinks. From 35 to 7.5%?
By the way, that link about 35% isn’t there anywhere. Wrong link?
and people who want to make money aren’t betting on people electing fred. not a good sign
I know many Republicans and conservatives that will stay home if Rudy Giuliani is the candidate. He does not represent our values as conservatives, and never will. Millionaire Mitt Romney is a Republican-in-name-only (RINO ) that simply has everything else and nothing to do. I guess Ill just try to buy the presidency. The White House isnt for sale! Conservatives will simply stay home and the Democrats will pick up additional seats in the House and probably get the 60 seats in the Senate they need to completely destroy our Country. Nice picture huh?
However, I think Fred can bring America back together, if thats even possible. America needs a rebirth of patriotism and honor. Republicans also need a rebirth. President Reagan was our last rebirth and he can never be duplicated. Fred Thompson will bring his own down-to-earth common sense to this country. If a conservative runs as a conservative, he will win! Think of it this way: Eight years of another Clinton White House? Now if that is not a sufficient enough reason to pull together as a nation, and fight this socialist liberal takeover of our government, what is? Folks, we are in for the fight of our lives, just as our young men and women are fighting for our freedoms in Iraq and Afghanistan, we must fight for our nation right here and now! I truly believe Fred Thompson is the one man who can pull this nation back together! Rudy Giuliani will just tear us apart.
Fred on the Issues (from www.Fred08.com)
The first responsibility of government is to protect the American people, the homeland, and our way of life. Today we face the urgent threat of radical Islamic terrorists. Al Qaeda is committed to attacking us here at home, and wants to use weapons of mass destruction (WMD) to kill millions. We must never give them that opportunity. We must defeat the terrorists abroad, and that begins in Iraq and Afghanistanthe central fronts in this global war. We must show the world we have the will to fight and win. A weakened America - or an America that appears weaker - will only encourage further attacks. We must persevere. As Commander-in-Chief, the president must ensure the United States has the means to achieve victory. Presidential leadership requires talking to the American people about these stakes, mapping out a clear vision for success, and devising a comprehensive strategy for achieving it. I am committed to:
* A larger, more capable, and more modern military that can defeat terrorists, deter adversaries, and defend the U.S. and our interests.
* A missile defense system that can protect the U.S. and our allies from long-range ballistic missiles.
* An enhanced intelligence community, with robust human-intelligence capabilities, focused on terrorism and proliferation.
* A robust approach to homeland security that will protect our nation from terrorists and WMD, regardless of where they come from.
* A strengthened system of global alliances to better combat terrorists, proliferators, and traditional threats to our interests.
* A judicial system that deals with the realities of terrorists and unlawful enemy combatants.
Federal Budget and Spending/Budgetary Reform
In a few short yearsnot a generation from nowa fiscal tsunami that could imperil our security and economic prosperity will hit our nation and place an unfair burden of debt on our children and grandchildren. The tens of trillions of dollars in debt that will be accumulated over the next few decades will do immense harm to our economy. This burden is now estimated at $170,000 per person and $440,000 per family. Time is running out to address this looming crisis. We need market-based approaches to reform that guarantee benefits for those who need them and embrace personal responsibility and cost-effectiveness without raising taxes. Given the scope and urgency of this problem, and the burden it will place on our children, reform is not only an economic necessity, it is a moral imperative that requires action now. I am committed to:
* Opening the governments fiscal books on this looming crisis for all to see and understand.
* Working with individuals of all political persuasions to develop a comprehensive solution to the pending fiscal crisis.
* Leading and making the hard choices necessary, to include cutting wasteful government spending, to safeguard our security, promote our prosperity, and protect our children and grandchildren from fiscal calamity.
The U.S. tax code is broken and a burden on U.S. taxpayers and businesses, large and small. Todays tax code is particularly hostile to savings and investment, and it shows. To make matters worse, its complexity is a drag on our productivity and economic growth. Moreover, taxpayers spend billions of dollars and untold hours each year filling out complicated tax returns, just so they can send more money to Washington, much of it for wasteful programs and the pet projects of special interests. We need lower taxes, and we need to let taxpayers keep more of their hard-earned dollarsthey know best where and how to spend them. And we need to make the system simpler and fairer for all. To ensure Americas long term prosperity and economic security, I am committed to:
* Fundamental tax reform built on the principles of simplicity, fairness, and growth.
* A new tax code that gets the government out of our citizens pocketbooks, while enhancing U.S. competitiveness abroad.
Dissolution of the IRS as we know it.
Americans have the best healthcare in the world. Some, however, choose not be insured; others cannot afford it. Every American should be able to get health insurance coverage that is affordable, fully accessible, and portable. Coverage should meet their individual needs and put them in control. Those who propose a one-size-fits-all Washington-controlled program ignore the cost, inefficiency, and inadequate care that such a system offers. Access to affordable, portable health care can be made available for all Americans without imposing new mandates or raising taxes. Current government programs must also be streamlined and improved so that those who truly need help can get the health care they need. I am committed to a healthcare system that:
* Realigns programs and creates a system around individual consumers and patients by providing more information and more opportunities to choose affordable health care options that best meet their needs and those of their families.
* Improves the individual health of all Americans by shifting to a system that promotes cost-effective prevention, chronic-care management, and personal responsibility
* Modernizes delivery and administration of care by encouraging the widespread use of clinical best practices, medical information technology, and other innovations.
* Increases competition and consumer choice while streamlining regulations through free-market solutions that benefit individuals and reduce costs for employers.
* Promotes and speeds medical research and life-sciences innovation.
Our government is outdated, inefficient, and wasteful. It is often unable to perform even the most basic tasks our citizens expect. It is no longer enough just to want limited government; the American people deserve more effective government. Given todays challenges, we cannot affordand shouldnt acceptanything less than a nimble, effective, and efficient government that is able to focus its resources on the important issues facing our country. It must be able act on behalf of the American people and our national interests in a timely manner. The key to competent government is strong, committed leadership from the top. The key to good government is good people who are well-managed and put the national interest first. I am committed to:
* Attracting and rewarding the best Americans to serve in government and ensuring they have the authority and resources needed to get the job done.
* Fixing government accounting so tax dollars are properly spent and the American people know exactly what they are being spent on.
* Improving government performance by making agencies accountable for accomplishing their missions on time and within budget.
* Ensuring information technology systems are secure and that they give our government the capacity and effectiveness to get the job done.
Building Strong Families
Strong families are the bedrock of our nation and our culture. They are built around the sanctity of life and the institution of marriage, which is the union of a man and a woman. To counter coarseness in todays culture that oftentimes victimizes our children and undermines the traditional values parents want to instill, we must not only protect but strengthen the institutions of family and marriage. I am committed to:
* Using the Presidency to encourage policies that promote a culture of life, strengthen the institution of marriage and traditional families, and advance freedom of religion.
* Returning authority to the levels of government closest to families and communitiesthe statesand then protecting states from further intrusion by the federal government, the judiciary, and other states.
* Combating the spread of obscenity over TV and other media by making sure parents can better exercise their responsibilities.
The United States is a nation of immigrants. Throughout our history, legal immigrants have brought energy, ideas, strength, and diversity to our country, our economy, and our culture. This must continue. But in the post-9/11 world, immigration is more of a national security issue. A government that cannot secure its borders and determine who may enter and who may not, abrogates a fundamental responsibility. I am committed to:
* Securing our borders and enforcing immigration laws. Amnesty is not an option and the toleration of sanctuary cities must end.
* Reviewing our immigration laws and policies to ensure they advance our national interests. Uniting Americans by welcoming legal immigrants willing to learn English, assimilate into our communities, and become productive citizens.
A well-educated citizenry is vital to our security, our economy, and our democracy. Despite the tens of billions of dollars spent on education by Washington each year, and the hundreds of federal education programs now in place, our children are still falling behind, particularly in subjects crucial to the global economy in which we live. At a time when America is behind other developed countries in education excellence, the federal role in education is too intrusive and too bureaucratic, and has become part of the problem. State and local governments are closest to the parents, the kids, and the schools, and best situated to implement changes and innovations that best educate children. I am committed to:
* Giving parents more choices in education and schools less bureaucracy.
* Reviewing federal programs for cost-effectiveness, reducing federal mandates, returning education money to the states, and empowering parents by promoting voucher programs, charter schools, and other innovations that enhance education excellence through competition and choice.
* Encouraging students and teachers to pursue careers in science, technology, engineering, and mathfields that are crucial to our security, competitiveness, and prosperity.
* Promoting transparency to assess performance, promote accountability, and share innovations in education at all levels.
Appointing Judges Faithful To Our Constitution
Activist judges across the country seem intent on legislating from the bench to promote a culture of abortion, redefine marriage, and undermine familiesin effect re-shaping the values of our entire society without the consent of the people. We need judges who recognize their role in our democracy is to interpret, not make, the law. I am committed to:
* Appointing strict constructionist judges who will interpret the law, not impose their views on us by legislating from the bench.
The energy challenges our nation faces today are real and significant. Our dependence on foreign sources of oil threatens our national security and puts our economic prosperity at risk. America must rise to the challenge and take the steps necessary to become more energy independent before this becomes a crisis. No one solution will solve the energy challenges we face; all ideas must be on the table. Greater energy security will enhance our ability to pursue our foreign policy and national security objectives. Increasing our energy independence and investing in alternative energy sources will also produce a healthier environment. And while we dont know for certain how or why climate change is occurring, it makes sense to take reasonable steps to reduce CO2 emissions without harming our economy. Overall, I am committed to:
* A balanced approach to energy security that increases domestic supplies, reduces demand for oil and gas, and promotes alternative fuels and other diverse energy sources.
* Investing in renewable and alternative fuels to promote greater energy independence and a cleaner environment.
* An energy policy that invests in the advanced technologies of tomorrow and places more emphasis on conservation and energy efficiency.
* Conducting research and development into technologies that improve the environment, especially the reduction of CO2 emissions.
I strongly support the Second Amendment of the Constitution, which protects an individuals right to keep and bear arms. Gun control is touted as a major crime-control measure. But some of the places with the strictest gun-control laws also have high violent-crime rates. Disarming law-abiding citizens does not prevent crime. The answer to violent crime is smart, effective, and aggressive law enforcement. The real effect of these gun-control measures is to place onerous restrictions on law-abiding citizens who use firearms for such legal activities as self-defense, sport-shooting, hunting, and collecting. I am committed to:
* Strictly enforcing existing laws and severely punishing violent criminals.
* Protecting the rights individual Americans enjoy under the Second Amendment.
But the man displays no energy, no forcefulness. He's bringing to the campaign the same lackadaisical style that drove his delayed entry.
Not committing any gaffes is hardly a claim that will endear him to primary voters. Where's the beef?
That wouldn't be apparent from Mitt's recent numbers, as Romney is doing quite well, trading most recently at 29.3%, and up 2.4% today. If Mitt was betting against himself his numbers would be going down, not up.
Gee, look at that, Romney is trading for 3.5 x that of Thompson. Things can certainly change!
Are you slow?
So far Fred & Duncan are the ONLY GOP candidates with guts enough to speak unequivocally on the subject, and only Fred is within range.
Negative press? Just going by the negative reactions I’m seeing by folk here and on other forums and blogs, but don’t ya know, he got into the race too late, (because apparently now presidential races are supposed to start 2 years before the election), he’s got no fire in his belly, he’s lazy, he’s got a trophy wife, he dated women while he was single, he’s too old, he talks too slowly, he nods his head too much, he’s an actor, he doesn’t make people pump their fists in the air and go “WOO-HOOO!” at his rallies, etc., etc., etc.
You're just repeating convenient but empty criticism fm the media & his opponents.
I could care less if the man can dance the quickstep - I want to know how he'll lead.
my policy interest is beating rudy
hey !@ pissant is suppose to post these.
After careful analysis, I think the most winnable ticket for the GOP would be, Romney/Thompson.
“Moseying” for the Presidency is not likely to work, even if he is the only conservative among the major contenders.
Verily, Pissant is The Dean of negative Thompson threads posters. I am honored even to be mentioned in the same post as he.
“Gee, look at that, Romney is trading for 3.5 x that of Thompson. Things can certainly change!”
While Romney has staying power cause of money, I think he has little chance at getting the nomination because of the Mormon factor and especially the RINO factor. Sounds like it might be time to get out the wallet for a bet.
Hey, I have been doing both Romniacs and Fred Heads a favor by exposing the Huckster as of late.
Hunter not only “gets it”, he has got it since he stepped foot into the House in 1981
You know Ron Paul is poised to overtake him in NH?
Your man Duncan is a good man. Too bad he never could get the necessary traction.
He’s picking up alot of steam as we speak. He is gonna pull off the upset of the century.
The money hardly ever lies.
FT will be on MTP for the full hour Sunday!
IF he can, I am ALL for it. I would be happy with Hunter, Romney or Thompson.
I WILL vote for the Republican regardless of who it finally is.
I will as well, with a couple of exceptions.
You know what would be nice is for Thompson to select him for VP so he gets exposure for the next election after Thompson wins his 2nd.
Does this have anything to do with the “scandal” brewing in secret?
Maybe the ticket will be Rudy and Mitt.
I gotta hand it to you pissant, your hope does indeed spring eternal.
Good list. Obeys the marketing maxim of seven plus, or minus two. Whoever wrote it knows something about writing for effect.
“Let me know when Intrade elects a POTUS, would ya?”
My experience is that they are extremely accurate. People leave their politics behind when betting.
Overall, Fred peaked about at his announcement and has been downhill since. I gave money to his campaign when it was at about 20 and substantially above Mitt. Oh well, I also gave to Irey and Santorium.
Count me in. The Huckster needs some exposing. What is more, he hardly has any fans here, so you don't have to enrage the majority of Freepers as is the case with Thompson.
So, if I post something negative about Huckster, it is to assist Pissant in his quixotic Hunter quest.
Romney is just on the edge of the MoE behind Thompson on an averaged composite of the last 5 national polls taken.
Note: 4 Rasmussen Daily Tracking Polls and 1 Quinnipiac Poll national polls used for the above averages.
Margin of Error for Rasmussen is +/- 4 points
Margin of Error for Quinnipiac is +/- 3.6 points.
The RCP average the you quote goes all the way back to 10/14 and is an average over 2.5 weeks. That's not a good way to deterimine where the candidates actually stand as of today.
More important than national polls are the state polls. Especially the early states. Romney is leading in nearly all of those. Remember that the primary is not a national primary run on a single day. It is a series of state primaries.
you have any idea what the press would do with a real conservative in the white house?
Republican Nomination Market
Oh no Fred is doomed...
Does that help?
Oh no Fred is doomed...
Does that help drive it lower so we can buy in as low as possible...