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Ay 9:15 pm, Christie 72, Corzine 20.

Christie leading by 13 points, 56-43.

The GOP is counting on a few wins tomorrow after four years of losing. And futures market traders seem to favor them. At the Intrade futures market, they sell contracts that depend on election outcomes. If a candidate wins, his contract pays $100. If he loses, it becomes worthless. In the weeks leading up to an election, contracts are bought and sold between market participants, and the going price offers an indication of how the market views the race. In 2004, Intrade participants correctly predicted every state's presidential outcome. In 2008, they predicted them all correctly except for Indiana, which...

A federal government run health insurance plan to be approved before midnight ET 31 Dec 2009 Last Price: 41.9 1.8 You can buy this at 41.9 You can sell this at 41.0

A federal government run health insurance plan to be approved before midnight ET 31 Dec 2009 Last Price: 35.0 1.0 You can buy this at 39.0 You can sell this at 29.0 http://data.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/closingPricesForm.jsp?tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com&contractId=683800 A federal government run health insurance plan to be approved before midnight ET 31 Dec 2009 35.0

Politics - Barack Obama Will Barack Obama depart as President of the United States? ------------------------------------------ Contract Bid Ask Last Vol Chge ------------------------------------ OBAMA.DEPART.DEC09 ----------------------------- Barack Obama to depart as President of the United States before midnght ET on 31 Dec 2009 M Trade - 10.0 - 0 new OBAMA.DEPART.DEC10 ------------------------- Barack Obama to depart as President of the United States before midnght ET on 31 Dec 2010 M Trade - 15.0 - 0 new OBAMA.DEPART.DEC11 ----------------------- Barack Obama to depart as President of the United States before midnght ET on 31 Dec 2011 M Trade - 20.0 - 0 new...

PHYSICS ARTICLES DISCUSSION FORUM Fusion and the LHC (Large Hadron Collider) Gravitonics article found HERE. Located near Geneva, close to the border between Switzerland and France, the Large Hadron Collider is the largest particle accelerator in the world at a cost of about 9 billion dollars. It is strange how we love to put all of our eggs in one basket. At the same time 9 billion was spent on the LHC, Dr Bussard could not find a few million for his fusion reactor. Don't get me wrong, the Physicists working at CERN are some of the best in the...

Cranbury, NJ (January 06, 2009)—BlackLight Power (BLP) Inc. today announced its second commercial license agreement with Farmers’ Electric Cooperative, Inc. of New Mexico, (Farmers’ Electric). In a non-exclusive agreement, BLP has licensed Farmers’ Electric to use the BlackLight Process and certain BLP energy technology for the production of thermal or electric power. Farmers’ Electric may produce gross thermal power up to a maximum continuous capacity of 250 MW or convert this thermal power to corresponding electricity.

Intrade Prediction Markets. California Supreme Court and Proposition 8 California Supreme Court to overturn Proposition 8 by 31 Dec 2009 Bid 25.0 Ask 49.8 Last 79.9 Vol 1818

Intrade now has a live initiative wherein the person who wants a contract listed can send them $100 to open a market and if there's enough trading activity, the person will get their money back and possibly even make a percentage off the trades. I would like to open a contract on the Birth Certificate controversy, but I don't know what milestone to use or what would generate the most interest -- most intraders are very liberal and think I'm a crackpot, but they're not likely to put their money down against Obama stonewalling the birth certificate. What would be...

Will 2009 be one of the hottest on record? Forum Index -> Announcements Mail this topic Author Message 09/03/2009 14:37:46 Subject: Will 2009 be one of the hottest on record? Intrade Intrade has listed a market on 2009 being one of the five warmest years on record. This market can be found under Climate and Weather -- Global Temperatures. Please be sure to read the contract rules carefully, and please contact the exchange by emailing help@intrade.com if you have any questions regarding this contract before you place a trade. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Please Freep this poll on Media Bias. It was originally set up at Political Ref but registration was required, but that has been taken care of by using PollDaddy.com.

John Delaney wrote: To measure the immediate impact of dozens of presentations and workshops by 2,500 business and 42 political leaders we have constructed the Intrade World Crisis Index. Our admittedly unsophisticated sentiment index priced at 50.0 at the official opening of the meeting is comprised of eight equally weighted markets that measure the likelihood of recessions, depressions, increased unemployment, lower stock markets, and greater international tensions. A higher post meeting index means our markets predict a more disastrous 2009 than before. A lower post-meeting index means our markets predict global leaders have reduced the probability that 2009 will be...

INTRADE WORLD CRISIS INDEX Intrade has constructed the Intrade World Crisis Index. Our admittedly unsophisticated sentiment index priced initially at 50.0 on January 27th 2009 at the official opening of the 2009 Davos World Economic Forum is comprised of eight equally weighted markets that measure the likelihood of recessions, depressions, increased unemployment, lower stock markets, and greater international tensions. A higher index means our markets predict a more disastrous 2009 than before. A lower post-meeting index means our markets predict the probability that 2009 will be a disaster will be lower than previously thought. The 8 "World Crisis" Markets Level...

Here's a cool technical exchange taking place over at the Intrade forum, in the CertifiGate thread that I set up a while back. Some troll logged in as jbeyer posted trashtalk about Polarik and so Polarik has logged on and proceeded to hand him his hat. jbeyer Novice Joined: 11/10/2008 03:32:14 Messages: 40 Online ko, I've forgotten to mention to you that Polarik's report is a bunch of hogwash. He appears to be a computer nerd who has written a paper that he knows most people won't understand. His paper provides more "proof" for everyone wearing tin-foil hats. I work...

Okay, I'll start: 1) Blagojevich walks scott free 2) My salary continues to remain stagnate 3) The bailout results in a massive debt to taxpayers with zero benefit to them 4) Iran aquires nuclear weapons and we (including Bush) failed to do anything about it 5) Jamie Gertz continue's to become even more attractive as she ages

Intrade opened up contracts for 2012 recently. Palin is priced at $12, Jindal at $22, which suggests Palin is underpriced compared to her popularity. There is an anti-Palin/Anti-Social Conservative bias at Intrade, so that is probably dampening Palin's price.

The Bush administration is moving in its last weeks to complete regulations to enforce a controversial law that seeks to block Internet gambling. The move is drawing hot protests from Democratic lawmakers and supporters of online betting.

Can someone explain to me how Intrade works? I think McCain will win and I'd like to make some money. But I seriously don't know how it works.

Subject: NEW MARKET: The LA Times Obama Video Intrade We have now opened a market on the LA Times making public a video that reportedly shows Barack Obama praising a Chicago professor who was a PLO spokesman while that organisation was a designated terrorist organisation. This market can be found under Poltiics -- 2008 US Election -- LA Times to make public Obama video tape. Contract Rules: This contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if the LA Times makes public the video showing Barack Obama praising former PLO spokesman before 11:59:59pm ET on Nov 4th 2008. The contract will...

I just noticed that McCain's Intrade odds are moving up, suggesting that those who are willing to bet on the race feel that his odds of winning are improving. He has been at ~15 or lower for the past couple of weeks. Yesterday, his 'value' was at 12.5, and today it's up to nearly 18. A ~40% jump is a pretty large move over a 24 hour period.

Brand new contracts. Prices are likely to be attractive in the beginning, so get them while they're hot! Put your money where your mouth is AND get paid for it.

Hey, Freepers: Here's a way for us to produce ADS and if our Campaign Loses, we don't have to PAY. About Centrist Messenger Centrist Messenger is a political advertising company that exists to offer a non-partisan channel for political messages to reach their intended audience. Centrist Messenger is not a political action committee or affiliated with any party or candidates, Centrist Messenger simply offers an outlet for the centrist views of the large majority of Americans who do not identify with extreme advertising messages that are now typical of campaigns in America. Centrist Messages can still make strong advocacy of...

I'm trying to ignore the polls, since they are weighted toward Dems, but I saw the Gallup poll notice on Drudge last night and checked Intrade both last night and about 6:00 a.m. this morning. Obama still up. But now at 12:30, it's showing Obama down .4 and McCain up .7. Last night my hubby told me to s-l-o-w-l-y step away from the computer. I need a life.

Alleged Manipulation on Intrade John Delaney, CEO, Intrade Submitted: 10 16 2008 Intrade Comment on Alleged Manipulation in the Presidential Markets There has recently been vigorous discussion of unusual trading activity on our political prediction markets. What could be motivating the activity has been subject to widespread speculation by academics, journalists, our own users and others. Some external commentators have claimed the unusual trading patterns indicate that our markets are being intentionally manipulated for political purposes. Others have gone further yet. Part of the public utility of Intrade markets hinges on the quality, scope and usability of the predictive information...

Ok. Here are the facts, as they stand right now - it's late, so bear with me. 1) Politico says that something big is coming in the morning, according to the McCain campaign. 2) Someone placed a massive short on Obama on Intrade in the last few hours. People who know more than I do about these matters say that we're talking about an amount of money in the range of $140,000. Those are what Donald Rumsfeld called "known knowns." We know two things - which may or may not be connected. The McCain people say they have news -...

McCain +4 and Obama -4 on Intrade today.

A snapshot of Intrade prices for various contracts was taken before and after the debate. It showed a mixed bag at the time. However, the CEO of Intrade has posted that there was a blatant market manipulation attempt to boost Obama's price. As a result of adjustments, what was a murky vision is now clear: Palin won big. This debate was unique at Intrade because there was a contract to trade based upon Intrade prices resulting after the debate. It was based upon my suggestion sent in to Intrade. ________________________________________________ 04/10/2008 02:04:27 Subject: Re:New Intrade VP Debate Contracts ko Director...

According to Intrade, Obama has a 63% chance of winning the election, vs. 37% for McCain. Here is one way of thinking about that. Suppose two baseball teams in the World Series are evenly matched (50% chance of winning each game), and team A wins the first game. The probability of team A winning the series becomes 21/32 or 65.63% . This can be shown by working backwards using a tree. For example, after 4 games, if team A has won 3 (2) games, it has a 7/8 (1/2) chance of winning the series. One can estimate the chance of...

US Congress to approve a government bailout of banks on/before 30 Sep 2008 Last Price: 17.6 \/40.4 The US Economy will go into Recession during 2008 Last Price: 13.0 \/ 7.0

Here’s my analysis of the debate results from Intrade, comparing pre- and post-debate numbers. McCain won handily with a 6.7 poing swing in his favor on the individual contracts at high volume. But there’s one glitch in the Electoral Votes on the front page of Intrade. McCain lost some ground there. Perhaps it is one of those contracts that lags the more emotional President.Individual contracts. New: McCain 227 — Obama 311 Old: McCain 232 — Obama 306 Change: +5 for Obama Electoral Votes on front page of Intrade. McCain losing ground? 2008 Presidential Election Winner (Individual) Contract 2008.PRES.OBAMA Barack Obama...

How in the H*LL can these numbers be so far apart considering what today's polls are showing? Something fishy's goin' on!!

Within the last couple of days, Intrade has posted a version of the electoral map that Momaw Nadon has been generating once a week. The map is now instantaneous. In the past few days we've seen some fast arbitrage opportunities between the state-to-state contracts that make up the electoral map and the actual presidential individual contracts. The state-to-state contracts used to lag the individual contracts by several days, but now they catch up relatively quickly, within one day. But there have been some wild swings lately, and we're in the middle of one now. So let's post arbitrage possibilities here...

http://play.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=68350&z=1221412999781

McCain has gone from 35% to almost 54% in short period of time!!!!

For the first time in this election, Mccain has taken the lead on Intrade~~~~~~!!!!!!

It's so much fun reading the newspapers these days. The Sarah surge continues to dominate all the political news while the Palin-McCain — er, McCain-Palin — ticket is forging ahead in the polls.But let’s be fair. Even though Sen. McCain is now riding Gov. Palin’s skirt tails, he was the one who made the brilliant decision to put her on the ticket. And the louder the Left screams the better Sarah seems to do. So much better that for the first time the Intrade pay-to-play prediction market — which long has had Obama winning by 20 to 25 points in...

InTrade: McCain 51.0% - Obama 48.3%

FOR THE FIRST TIME, MCCAIN CROSSES 50% MARK.

Intrade Political 'Securities' Percentage US$ Traded John McCain to win 2008 US Presidential Election 49.3% $5.1M Barack Obama to win 2008 US Presidential Election 49.6% $3.7M

BIDEN.VP.WITHDRAWN Last Trade : 5.0 0.8

There are 5 contracts that I intend to examine to get a start on finding some kind of number to quantify Liberal Bias on Intrade. The first contract is 2008.PRES.CLINTON(H) which seems like it should have zero value. This gives a good glimpse at a baseline bias value. Taking into account the volume of the contract, bias might be expressed as Price * Volume of such a baseline contract. In this case it's 3.2 * 522834, but that's unnecessarily high because the volume is over the life of the contract. So I would use the volume since the convention ended,...