Free Republic

When the Obama camp announced that it was going to make a play for North Dakota, a lot of people scoffed. I, for one, was skeptical. But then we all started taking a look at the ROI — the fact that the Obama camp could throw relative pennies at the state and win enough votes to make it competitive — and started thinking that maybe it was a smart choice to at the very least annoy McCain there. Well, now the polls are suggesting that maybe the Obama team was on to something. A new Research 2000 poll released today...

The road ahead to the White House is long for Democrat Barack Obama despite a rock star reception overseas, with polls in key states showing a tight race against Republican John McCain. As the Illinois senator gave a crowd-rousing performance before 200,000 people in Berlin, polls released in the United States showed waning enthusiasm for the man who would become the first African-American US president. Obama maintains a lead over his 71-year-old rival — between one and six points according to pollsters — but his edge is beginning to recede, despite what McCain's camp has described as the media's "love...

Denver, CO (AHN) - Republican nominee Bob Schaffer and Rep. Mark Udall (D-CO) are tied in the race for the seat of retiring Sen. Wayne Allard (R-CO), according to the latest Quinnipiac University poll. Schaffer and Udall are in a dead heat at 44 percent each. One percent of voters declared their support for other candidates and 11 percent were undecided. Schaffer has closed a 10-point deficit since last month, when he trailed 38 percent to 48 percent. Pundits are attributing his rise to increased support for offshore oil drilling, which the former Republican congressman supports. Fifty-nine percent of Colorado...

In the race for New Mexico’s Electoral College votes, Barack Obama has a five-point advantage over John McCain. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows Obama attracting 46% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%. Last month, Obama enjoyed an eight-point advantage. Two months ago, it was Obama by nine.

New Quinnipiac polling in four states contains pretty good news for John McCain. In Colorado, Quinnipiac has McCain ahead by 2 points, 46-44. This is the only Colorado poll in which McCain has led all year, save for an oddball results from the GOP-affiliated firm TargetPoint Consulting back in early April. Obama had led by 5 points in Quinnipiac's prior poll of Colorado, taken at the height of Obama's post-primary bounce last month. Obama maintains his lead in the other three states in this box set, but it is smaller than before in each instance. In Michigan, Obama now leads...

Fresh polls show that he has been unable to convert weeks of extensive media coverage into a widened lead. And some prominent Democrats whose support could boost his campaign are still not enthusiastic about his candidacy. Several new surveys show that Obama is in a tight race or even losing ground to Republican John McCain, both nationally and in two important swing states, Colorado and Minnesota. One new poll offered a possible explanation for his troubles: A minority of voters see Obama as a familiar figure with whom they can identify. Many voters still seem to be puzzling over who...

The professional odds-makers favor Barack Obama two-to-one to win the election. It's no wonder. Americans overwhelmingly believe the country is on the wrong track. They can't stand the current Republican occupant of the White House. The economy is weak and shows little sign of getting significantly stronger before the election. The country is fighting an unpopular war. And Obama, as he reminds us every time he opens his mouth, is all about "change." So why hasn't Obama closed the deal? Most national polls show Obama ahead -- but by margins so thin it can hardly give comfort to the putative...

As Barack Obama travels abroad, Americans seem to think most members of the media are in line with his message, according to the latest FOX News poll. Nearly 7/10 Americans (67%) say they believe most in the media want Obama to win the November election - while a scant 11 percent think the media are pulling for John McCain. ... When asked to rate the objectivity of media coverage of the campaigns, Americans feel Obama gets more of a positive spin by a better than 7-to-1 margin...

In a 2 way race, NBC reports that Barack Obama earns 47% of the vote, with McCain earning 41% and 12% of registered voters remaining undecided. NBC claims that these results were based upon a simple question asking which candidate respondents would vote for. But where the polling data becomes perplexing is when NBC asks ...

A new Detroit News-WXYZ-EPIC-MRA poll has Obama leading by two points in Michigan, 43%-41%. “The numbers are an improvement for Obama over EPIC-MRA's last survey, in late May, which found McCain leading by 4 points.

Obama slips 6% in the polls since June. He's now at 42%, down from 48%. McCain, on the other hand, hasn't lost ground. He's still hanging in there at 41%. read more: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll Hmmm. Maybe we ought to keep Mr. Audacity on the world tour. Maybe he could be a crowd warmer-upper for Madonna on her "Sticky and Sweet" world tour. Oh, but wait. Maybe that's not such a good idea. She's in the middle of a meltdown and her manager is threatening to quit because of her cantankerousness. Translated, that means diva moods I guess. And she's anemic, so...

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Barack Obama attracting 42% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%. That’s the lowest level of support measured for Obama since he clinched the Democratic Presidential nomination on June 3. Obama’s support peaked at 48% with data released on June 8, 9, and 10. During that same time frame, McCain’s support has remained steady in the 40% to 42% range (he’s had just one day a point below that range and two days a point above it). When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 46% and McCain 45%. With leaners,...

Doug Rivers of Stanford University and YouGov.com talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the world of political polling. Rivers explains why publicly provided margins of error overstate the reliability of most polls and why it's getting harder and harder to do telephone polls. Rivers argues that internet panels are able to create a more representative sample. Along the way he discusses automated telephone polls, the Bradley effect, and convention bounce, and the use of exit polls in calling states in Presidential elections

Alaska’s U.S. Senate race between Republican incumbent Ted Stevens and Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich has been a toss-up for several months now, but the Democratic challenger is now ahead 50% to 41%. When “leaners” are included, Begich leads 52%to 44%. Begich began running his first television ads of the campaign on July 8 and the survey was conducted nine days later. For each of the last three months, the candidates have been within two points of each other. Last month, Stevens was up two, 46% to 44%. In May, it the incumbent trailed by two. The month before, Stevens had...

US SENATE. The latest independent polls for US Senate races. ALASKA (Research 2000): Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) - 47%, US Senator Ted Stevens (R) - 45%. CONGRESS. The new independent polls for the US House contests. ALASKA CD-1 (Research 2000): Former State House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz (D) - 51%, Congressman Don Young (R) - 40%..

Understanding American voter sentiments heading into the 2008 Election cycle is no easy task. Voters seem to be all over the board on how they feel about the issues, the candidates, and what they think we should do about each issue is even stranger. In studying current Rasmussen Report detailed numbers, Americans seem to struggle with remaining on task all the way through their thought processes. Many voter positions appear quite counter-indicated, contradictory and even downright confusing, or should I say, confused. Obama and McCain are clearly in a dead heat statistical tie in the race for the White House....

The belief that reporters are trying to help Barack Obama win the fall campaign has grown by five percentage points over the past month. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey found that 49% of voters believe most reporters will try to help Obama with their coverage, up from 44% a month ago. Just 14% believe most reporters will try to help John McCain win, little changed from 13% a month ago. Just one voter in four (24%) believes that most reporters will try to offer unbiased coverage. A plurality of Democrats—37%-- say most reporters try to offer unbiased coverage of...

The Presidential race in Arkansas has remained relatively steady over the past month. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the Natural State finds John McCain leading Barack Obama 47% to 37%. When “leaners” are included, the GOP is ahead 52% to 39%.

The presidential race in Virginia is now dead even, with Barack Obama and John McCain each drawing 44% of the vote, according to a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state. If “leaners” are factored in, McCain leads by a statistically insignificant one percentage point 48% to 47%.

A sizable minority of voters (43%) say that Barack Obama would be not tough enough in dealing with foreign policy and national security issues as president, the same number of voters that say Obama's foreign policy would be about right (43%). By contrast, a narrow majority (51%) say that John McCain's approach to security issues would be about right; only 16% say he would not be tough enough. A quarter say McCain would be too tough. The confidence in McCain's foreign policy is reflected in the fact that while public opinion is negative on Iraq, more voters favor McCain (46%)...

Poll: Congress got mad hate for ya votahs.Americans have one more thing to whine about. According to a recent Zigby poll, members of Congress have never had a lower opinion of the American people. The poll indicates that for the first time congressional opinion on the people they serve has fallen to single digits. A total of eight percent of Congress members say they have a "good opinion" of the American people. Only six percent of the members surveyed said they had a "great opinion" of their constituents. "This is historic," said Raymond Zigby, who runs Zigby polls and still...

U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu now attracts 49% of the vote in her bid for re-election while Republican challenger John Kennedy earns 44%. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows that, when “leaners” are included, it’s Landrieu 51% Kennedy 45%.

This should be an easy year for Democrats. A record percentage of Americans say the country is headed in the wrong direction -- and after years of mostly Republican rule, that should help Democrats. Meanwhile, the media hype surrounding Democratic nominee-to-be Barack Obama is unprecedented and often unquestioning. National media have set him up as some sort of messiah. And after a pitched primary battle in which he emerged victorious, you would think Obama would appear unbeatable by now. By contrast, after an anti-climactic fizzle of a Republican primary, John McCain has sort of stumbled out of the gate for...

Americans are sharply divided by race heading into the first presidential election in which an African-American will be a major party nominee, with over 80 percent of black voters saying they had a favourable opinion of Barack Obama while only 30 percent of white voters have a favourable opinion of him. Black and white voters also diverge widely on the state of race relations and how black Americans are treated by society, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll published Wednesday. Obama's presumed nomination by the Democratic party, while generating high levels of enthusiasm among black voters, is...

In an election for North Carolina Governor today, 07/15/08, Democratic Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue and Republican Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory are effectively tied, according to this latest SurveyUSA election tracking poll conducted exclusively for WTVD-TV in Raleigh. Today, it's Perdue 47%, McCrory 46%, within the survey's 3.8 percentage point margin of sampling error.

The poll was restated today: 29,356 votes so far. McCain is leading Obama by 74-26%. Go to the link to vote.

Election 2008 Latest Polls

The race for the White House is tied. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Barack Obama and John McCain each attract 43% of the vote. When "leaners" are included, Obama holds a statistically insignificant 47% to 46% advantage. Today is the first time that McCain’s support has moved above 45% since Obama clinched the nomination on June 3. It’s also the first time the candidates have been tied since Obama clinched the Democratic nomination (see recent daily results). Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day (see recent demographic highlights). For most of...

Washington’s governor race has changed little over the past month. Incumbent Governor Christine Gregoire (D) has fallen just below the 50% level of support but is leading Republican challenger Dino Rossi. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows Gregoire attracting 49% of the vote while Rossie earns 43%.

I guess Obama's suddenly politics-as-usual campaign honchos, who've engineered a new "let's become like every other spineless Dem" strategy for their candidate over the past few weeks, have caused Obama to lose ground nationally, not gain it. According to the latest Newsweek poll, Obama is now beating McCain by only 3 points at 44-41%, down from the 15-point lead he held in last month's Newsweek survey, when he was up 51-36%. And keep in mind, Obama's numbers have gone down during a period when McCain's campaign has been stumbling, unraveling and producing negative news almost every day. Wow, Obama's so-called...

Democrat Frank Lautenberg, seeking a fifth term in the U.S. Senate, can breathe a little easier this month. The incumbent leads Republican challenger Dick Zimmer 49% to 36% in the latest Rasmussen reports telephone survey in New Jersey. When “leaners” are included, Lautenberg leads the Republican 50% to 37%. Last month, the two candidates were virtual tied, with Lautenberg on top by just a single percentage point. That poll was taken just days after Lautenberg survived a primary challenge that raised questions about whether he was too old to serve. Still, while the new poll provides better news for the...

Glow Fading?: The latest NEWSWEEK Poll shows Barack Obama leading John McCain by only 3 points. What a difference a few weeks can make. (Jonathan Darma, 7/11/08, Newsweek) A month after emerging victorious from the bruising Democratic nominating contest, some of Barack Obama's glow may be fading. In the latest NEWSWEEK Poll, the Illinois senator leads Republican nominee John McCain by just 3 percentage points, 44 percent to 41 percent. The statistical dead heat is a marked change from last month's NEWSWEEK Poll, where Obama led McCain by 15 points, 51 percent to 36 percent. Obama's rapid drop comes at...

North Dakota is as safe a Republican state as any in Presidential elections. George W. Bush carried the state by twenty-seven points in Election 2004 and twenty-eight points four years earlier. The state has voted for a Democratic Presidential candidate just once since 1936 and three times since 1916. Despite that history, John McCain and Barack Obama are tied in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of North Dakota voters. Both men earn 43% of the vote. When leaners are included, McCain holds a statistically insignificant one-point advantage, 47% to 46%. Last week, a Rasmussen Reports survey showed Obama with...

The gap between the two major presidential contenders has narrowed to 5% in New Jersey, as some of Barack Obama’s support appears to have slipped off into the undecided column over the past month. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of New Jersey voters, taken Monday night, shows Obama ahead of Republican candidate John McCain 44% to 39%.

I saw a little headline on YAHOO this morning,and followed up. Apparently,I was not the only one !

John McCain by a landslide. At least that’s the consensus from the recreational vehicle community, according to the latest RVBUSINESS.com Industry Poll that asked respondents to weigh in on November’s presidential election. Fully 67% of the 346 participants cast their ballots for Republican Senator McCain. Democratic Senator Barack Obama was a distant second at 25% while Libertarian Bob Barr carried 2% and another 6% were undecided. The overwhelming factor among McCain supporters was his level of experience. “There are several key issues, including national security, taxes and the economy,” said a member of the supplier community. “Obama is inexperienced and...

Two weeks ago, Newsweek released a poll showing Barack Obama 15 points ahead of John McCain. Days later, the Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll showed a similar gap. Yet over at Gallup, the daily tracking poll showed the two presumptive presidential nominees remain in a statistical tie, although early last week Obama did start to break a nickel ahead of McCain. The question that arises for the average person watching this race is, why the zero to 15-point difference in polling data? Is one poll more accurate than the other? “All polls are not created equally,” says Republican pollster Neil Newhouse....

One week after Sen. Hillary Clinton made a public show of unity with Sen. Barack Obama, a new survey suggests supporters of the New York senator are increasingly less likely to follow her lead. A growing number of Clinton supporters polled say they may stay home in November instead of casting their ballot for Obama, an indication the party has yet to coalesce around the Illinois senator four weeks after the most prolonged and at times divisive primary race in modern American history came to a close. According to a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released Friday, the number of Clinton...

In an election today in Indiana, Barack Obama takes 48% of the vote, John McCain 47% of the vote -- a statistical tie -- according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WHAS-TV Louisville and WCPO-TV Cincinnati. Obama's 1-point lead is within the survey's 4 percentage point margin of sampling error,

AOL is always running one kind of poll or another. Throughout the primary process they have been running weekly polls on the candidates. They are self selecting so they are not scientific but I must say that overall they seem to fairly reflect what is going on. I don't know if this is because unlike say a CNN, Times or Pew poll, the AOL audience is more a representative cross section of America or voters or what. Generally their poll results seem to lean left but not overwhelmingly so. After the Heller decision their gun poll showed 60-70% supporting the...

QUESTION 9. IF THE ELECTION FOR U.S. SENATE WERE HELD TODAY, WOULD YOU BE VOTING FOR: 1. DEMOCRAT KAY HAGAN 38% 2. REPUBLICAN ELIZABETH DOLE 48% 3. LIBERTARIAN CHRIS COLE 1% 98. NOT SURE 13% 99. REFUSED QUESTION 10. IF THE ELECTION FOR GOVERNOR WERE HELD TODAY, WOULD YOU BE VOTING FOR: 1. DEMOCRAT BEV PERDUE 43% 2. REPUBLICAN PAT MCCRORY 41% 3. LIBERTARIAN MICHAEL MUNGER 2% 98. NOT SURE 14% 99. REFUSED

Pollster.com provides a running average of all reported state presidential polls (I'm doubtful about their Virginia results. Anyone from there care to comment?) I thought it would be interesting to map their results using an electoral college map I created. Thought it was pretty and wanted to share. I'll try to do this once a week until the election so we can see how things change week to week. Maybe the visual can help show how and if a "tide" is turning. If this isn't an appropriate post or is in the wrong place, let me know.

Sen. Barack Obama did patriotism yesterday, today it is faith and by the end of the day both speeches will have been done in back-to-back states that swing: Missouri and Ohio. The Obama campaign said the Illinois senator plans to go to Zanesville, located in eastern Ohio, to visit a church program that provides food and clothing assistance to those in need.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Florida shows John McCain leading Barack Obama by seven percentage points, 48% to 41%. One week earlier, it was McCain by eight. A month ago, the Republican had a ten-point lead. This is the sixth straight Rasmussen Reports telephone survey to show McCain leading Obama in the Sunshine State. McCain is now viewed favorably by 57% of Florida voters, a figure that has not changed since the previous survey. Obama is viewed favorably by 44%, reflecting a seven point decline in eight days. Even more dramatic is the fact that 40% of Florida...

Wait a second. I distinctly recall Obama’s campaign chief telling us in this story, Obama Writes Off Florida and Ohio: Concedes Must Win Some Republican States, that Georgia was in play this year. It would be interesting to see how much money Obama actually spends in GA. Maybe it would be better spent defending Blue states rather than trying to flip Red ones.

About the time political reporters were sitting down to lunch on June 24, BlackBerries all over Washington buzzed with an unusual email. The pollsters for John McCain’s campaign sent out a memo challenging the findings of a poll conducted by the Los Angeles Times and Bloomberg. Hundreds of polls are released during a typical campaign without such a public objection. One finding in particular caught their attention. According to the L.A. Times, 22 percent of those surveyed identified themselves as Republicans, 39 percent as Democrats, and 27 percent as independents. The party identification in this poll, argued McCain’s pollsters, “is...

As the GOP in Congress appears about to be taking an "every man for himself" strategy for the fall elections, Gallup has just given the Republicans another gift (Americans Oppose Income Redistribution to Fix Economy). The results of this poll show that if the GOP ever gets back to preaching and adhering to the simple message that they used to have -- one that they've previously ridden to victory on -- they'd be shoe-ins in 2008. Whether or not the Republicans have cleaned their own house enough to take advantage of something like this remains to be seen. The numbers...

TNR.com: The new Gallup poll showing McCain and Obama tied is very, very welcome in McCainLand. McCain aides insist that two earlier polls--from Newsweek and the LA Times--showing Obama with a double-digit lead were the result of skewed partisan samples and not reflective of real trouble. But they acknowledge that such polls can shape the media narrative in very problematic ways. So from a meta- perspective, this is a big respite from an impending storyline of a McCain disaster. Three issues, I feel, hurt Barack Obama this past week: the utter arrogance he displayed in making up his own "Presidential...

United States Senator Mitch McConnell has a seven-point advantage over Democratic challenger Bruce Lunsford in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Kentucky voters. It’s McConnell 48%, Lunsford 41%.

PRINCETON, NJ -- For the third straight day, Gallup Poll Daily tracking shows Barack Obama and John McCain tied in national registered voter preferences for the fall election, each now with 44% of the vote.