BWAhahahaha!!! Lookit' The Track!!!...;0)
Posted on 07/20/2008 8:36:53 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Looking at water vapor image I believe the center is passing over cancun right now.
.
That’s what I see too,,,
It will be in the warm water in an hour or so,,,Then,,,
Watch Out!...:0/
Also,,,Looks like the formation of an Eye,,,
Hook rotation,,,
Great Catch...;0)
000
WTNT34 KNHC 210554
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
200 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008
...DOLLY MOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM
BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. THIS TROPICAL
STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR DATA FROM CANCUN
MEXICO INDICATE THAT DOLLY LACKS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF
CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE
CENTER IS REFORMING A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE
86.8 WEST OR VERY NEAR CANCUN MEXICO.
DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL HEADING WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE CENTER OF DOLLY IS FORECAST TO CROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING AND MOVE INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY TO BEGIN AFTER DOLLY MOVES AWAY
FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER. DOLLY COULD PRODUCE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA THIS
MORNING.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND IN WESTERN CUBA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...21.1 N...86.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
LMAOROF,,,FReeper eastforker Scooped FORECASTER PASCH!!!
He must read your posts,,,LOL,,,Good Shootin’...;0)
Dolly now tracking NW or WNW,,,hard to tell,,,
BWAhahahaha!!! Lookit' The Track!!!...;0)
The update graphic that you posted is one of the betweeners - all they do is update the center position, they don’t adjust the cone - the cone is adjusted every 6 hours, on the 3 hour mark they adjust the position.
We’ll see update cone graphs in another couple hours after the 8am EST update comes out. My guess: there’s a whole lot of forecasters driving to work right now, not very happy to have to head in so early, and wondering what the heck they’ll find when they get there.
The eye or center just is now leaving the north coast of the yucatan. You can see it realy starting to pick up moisture now.
...Dolly over northern Yucatan...about to move into the Gulf...
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico from the border with Belize to Campeche Mexico. A Tropical
Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for the coast of Belize from
Belize City northward to the border with Mexico. This tropical
storm watch will likely be discontinued later this morning.
Interests in the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress
of Dolly.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 500 am EDT...0900z...the poorly-defined center of Tropical Storm
Dolly was estimated near latitude 21.3 north...longitude 87.4 west
or about 150 miles...240 km...east of Progreso Mexico.
Dolly is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph...24 km/hr...and a
turn to the west-northwest is expected later today with a decrease
in forward speed on Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph...85 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected to begin when the center of the
storm moves into the Gulf of Mexico...and Dolly could become a
hurricane by Tuesday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles...280 km
from the center. Dolly could produce winds near tropical storm
force...especially in gusts...over the western tip of Cuba this
morning.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb...29.77 inches.
Dolly is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 6 inches across the
northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and in western Cuba...with
isolated maximum amounts up to 10 inches.
Repeating the 500 am EDT position...21.3 N...87.4 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds...50 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1008 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
am EDT.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Satellite imagery and radar observations from Cancun Mexico indicate
that the mid-level center of the tropical cyclone reformed to the
north of the previous track. However...synoptic data cast doubt on
the existence of a surface circulation center. Since the system
continues to generate vigorous convection and strong winds...and it
appears likely that the surface center will soon reappear...it is
prudent to continue issuing advisories and warnings on Dolly.
The current intensity estimate is 45 kt...in line with the latest
Dvorak analyses from TAFB. An upper-level low is moving into the
Bay of Campeche and seems to be increasing its separation distance
from the tropical cyclone...and also diminishing its shearing
influence. Upper-level outflow is expanding over the northern
semicircle of Dolly and this...combined with the warm waters of the
Gulf of Mexico...presages intensification. The current NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and also similar
to the dynamical intensity model consensus.
With the lack of a surface center and the reformation...initial
motion is somewhat uncertain. My best guess...305/13...is not much
different than in the previous package. A mid-level ridge to the
north of the storm is forecast to weaken in a couple of days and
the track guidance is fairly consistent in calling for a slowing of
forward speed by 48 hours...thereafter...the key player in the
steering pattern for Dolly is a mid-level ridge over the Southern
Plains. Global models show slightly different strengths and
configurations of this ridge around 72 hours and different
latitudes of landfall along the western Gulf of Mexico coast.
Although one should not focus on the exact landfall point in 2 to 3
days time...interests in the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor
the progress of Dolly.
Another NOAA P3 aircraft is scheduled to investigate the storm later
this morning.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 21/0900z 21.3n 87.4w 45 kt
12hr VT 21/1800z 22.6n 89.6w 50 kt
24hr VT 22/0600z 23.6n 92.2w 55 kt
36hr VT 22/1800z 24.4n 94.2w 65 kt
48hr VT 23/0600z 25.0n 95.5w 75 kt
72hr VT 24/0600z 26.0n 98.0w 65 kt...inland
96hr VT 25/0600z 26.5n 100.5w 30 kt...inland
120hr VT 26/0600z...dissipated
$$
forecaster Pasch
Movement toward...northwest near 15 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...50 mph. Minimum central pressure...1008 mb.
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->
I wonder if she will bounce and head back to SA and the Caribbean.
Hi Dix! What makes you think that?
well the water had the snakes all dislodged from their usual dens or where they live, ditches, under logs, etc and they were floating around all over the place. I understood at the time, fifty years ago, that there were as many snake bite deaths as drownings. People stuck in trees, etc and piles of brush floating around with snakes. Plus the fireants made huge balls, basketball sized, floatingin the water. It was dreadful.
As Katrina was approaching, there were stories about critters (including snakes and turtles) heading for higher ground. It struck me how small reptilian brains knew to get out of the way, but humans did not heed the warnings.
LOL!
I love reading this in an official weather bureau posting! If only they would include it in all of their documents about global warming!
” but humans did not heed the warnings. “
It’s still being debated in some circles whether Nagin, et. al., technically qualify as ‘humans’......
Nagan's Navy
...Dolly about to emerge off the northern coast of Yucatan...
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico from the border with Belize to Campeche Mexico.
At 8 am EDT...1200 UTC...the government of Belize has discontinued
the tropical storm watch for the coast of Belize.
Interests in the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress
of Dolly.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 800 am EDT...1200z...the center of Tropical Storm Dolly was
located near latitude 21.6 north...longitude 88.7 west
or about 65 miles...105 km...east-northeast of Progreso Mexico.
Dolly is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph...26 km/hr. A
continued west-northwestward motion is expected during the next
couple of days with a decrease in forward speed on Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph...85 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected to begin today as the center of
the storm moves out into the Gulf of Mexico...and Dolly could
become a hurricane by Tuesday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles...280 km
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on preliminary reports
from NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is 1005 mb...29.68 inches.
Dolly is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 6 inches across the
northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and in western Cuba...with
isolated maximum amounts up to 10 inches.
Repeating the 800 am EDT position...21.6 N...88.7 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds...50
mph. Minimum central pressure...1005 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
1100 am EDT.
$$
Forecaster Knabb
As you figured, oil jumped this morning.
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