Tropical Storm Dolly

NOAA/NHC ^ | 20 July 2008 | NOAA/NHC

[MHGinTN]

Actually, hang your grandchildren with debt ... the government doesn’t ‘pay as they go’, they issue IOU’s to be funded from granchildrens’ incomes.

[SE Mom]

Eeesh- I was thinking that too NN...wee bit early for this nonsense.

[NautiNurse]

Chocolate.

[jpsb]

Begin rant

Just another example of the NHC/MSM hyping weather. In the old days this thing dolly, would hardly even rate TD status. There is no surface low, a surface low is the very definition of a topical system and Dolly does not yet have that feature. Sure it may develop in to a topical system probably will but it is not one yet.

NHC lost me when they started naming cold fronts last year! Give me a break, they will do ANYTIME to get the storm count up it seems.

They caused near panic in the Houston area with Rita, folks a hundred miles inland were evacuating. 100 MILES INLAND! Dozens died needlessly. I live right on the coast and I stayed put. Had to all the damn rods were packed with panic stricken inlanders. Thanks alot NHC/MSM.

END RANT

[jpsb]

ANYTIME = ANYTHING

[eastforker]

If RITA had hit 60 miles east of where it did you might not be making that rant about now.

[eastforker]

Excuse me, 60 miles west of where it hit.

[NautiNurse]

This storm is difficult because of the large size, forward speed, GOM SST, and proximity to the TX coast. The past several NHC updates have qualified their inability to get a fix, with a relatively short time span before anticipated landfall.

I would rather read about the forecasting dilemma than to get a nasty surprise like we did with Gabrielle a few days after 9-11-01. We were caught with our pants down while trees and debris damaged property.

[jpsb]

LOl, true but if you live high and dry inland there is no need to evacuate. Why cause panic by hyping these storms to the extent that people 100 miles inland are evacuating. I thought about leaving but roads were so jam packed, I decided it was better to stay until almost land fall and then make a run for higher ground. Happily that plan worked and I never had to leave. Me and a few dozen others were the only ones in my town for a couple of days. It was fun.

Bad news is just about everyone that did evacuate says "never again, I don't give a damn what NHC says I'm not leaving". Highest elevation in town is 14'. If everyone stays and it's a bad storm things will get ugly and the NHC/MSM will be to blame for spreading panic every time a big thunder storm shows up on radar.

[txhurl]

WU rip:

CORPUS CHRISTI — Tropical Storm Dolly could dump as much as 20 inches of rain on the Coastal Bend and could strengthen to a potentially devastating Category 3 storm.

The National Weather Service issued a Hurricane Watch this morning that encompasses Brownsville, all the way north to Port O'Connor.

Right now the National Weather Service predicts it will come ashore early Thursday morning as a Category 2 storm, but there is a 30 percent chance that it could strengthen beyond that.

The South Texas coast will start feeling the storm Tuesday by noon, with waves at the beach at 12 to 14 feet, Meteorologist John Metz told emergency management officials this morning.

The state is preparing to open evacuation lanes if necessary but will wait until a 4 p.m. storm update, before making any sort of declaration.

If it comes ashore anywhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi, Nueces County and counties south will be inundated with rain. Current storm surge predictions for South Texas are six feet.

CORPUS CHRISTI — Nueces County is not currently planning a mandatory evacuation, County Judge Loyd Neal said Monday.

But the county is coordinating with San Antonio to open a shelter at Kelly Air Force base.

State emergency management officials said residents should fill their vehicles with gasoline. Currently it is expected to come in as a strong Category 1 or Category 2, but there is the potential to intensify to Cat. 3.

[jpsb]

I understand the delema, but really a cat1 or cat 2 is only a problem if live on open water or at very low elevations. Things start getting serious with cat 3 and up. As I am writing this it is non-stop Dolly on the radio, and Dolly is still just a big broad mid level low!

[NautiNurse]

10-20” of rain in one swoop can be messy and/or dangerous for most areas.

[jpsb]

I remember TS Cludet(sp) 1979ish. 28” in twelve hours, I think it set a record very messy no warming.

[Ditter]

I hear you, people panicked and thought they should run from Rita when they should not have. I have friends who swear that they heard calls for evacuation. Even if it had hit Houston dead on, only those along the coast and in low areas should have hit the road. Now they have a zip code map and will tell people which zip codes should evacuate. I hope this works better.

[Cailleach]

“Dolly is still just a big broad”

So, are we hoping that Dolly will turn out to be a big bust???

I’m sorry...I really really couldn’t resist. I did try.

But seriously...Dolly, please send some rain to Killeen, TX. My grass is dead. And it’s hot. And I just washed my car. lol

[txhurl]

In ‘78, TS Amelia stalled over central TX: it rained hard for four straight days, immense flooding. I remember being a little kid and not being able to go outside for four days.

[nuclady]

bookmark

[NautiNurse]

...Dolly moving quickly northwestward over the southern Gulf...

a Hurricane Watch is in effect from Rio San Fernando Mexico
northward...across the border between Mexico and the United
States...and along the Texas coast to Port O’Connor. A Hurricane
Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch
area...generally within 36 hours.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for the coast of Mexico from La
Pesca northward to south of Rio San Fernando...and for the Texas
coast from north of Port O’Connor to San Luis Pass. A tropical
storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

At 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...the government of Mexico has discontinued
the Tropical Storm Warning for the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 100 PM CDT...1800z...the center of Tropical Storm Dolly was
located near latitude 22.8 north...longitude 90.4 west or about 475
miles...765 km...east-southeast of the coast of the lower Rio
Grande Valley of south Texas and northeastern Mexico.

Dolly is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph...30 km/hr. A
gradual decrease in forward speed is forecast during the next
couple of days...with little change in the direction of motion. On
this track...Dolly will be approaching the coast of the western
Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Reports from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph...85 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast...and Dolly could become a
hurricane by tomorrow.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles...280 km
from the center.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by the aircraft was
1005 mb...29.68 inches.

Dolly is expected to produce total rain accumulations of two to four
inches across the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico with
isolated maximum amounts up to six inches.

Repeating the 100 PM CDT position...22.8 N...90.4 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...50
mph. Minimum central pressure...1005 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Knabb

[SouthTexas]

Speaking of, looks like time to stock up!

[jpsb]

you are forgiven, I would not have been able to resist either. LOL