Replies

Statement as of 11:45 am EDT on July 20, 2008
...Fourth tropical storm of the Atlantic season forms in the western
Caribbean Sea...

at 1145 am EDT...1545 UTC...the government of Mexico has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from the
border with Belize to Campeche Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning
means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the
warning area within the next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 1145 am EDT...1545z...the center of Tropical Storm Dolly was
located near latitude 18.4 north...longitude 84.2 west or about 270
miles...435 km...east of Chetumal Mexico and about 230 miles...365
km...southeast of Cozumel Mexico.

Dolly is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph...28 km/hr. A
northwestward or west-northwestward motion is forecast during the
next couple of days...with little change in forward speed. On this
track...the center of Dolly will move across the Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico tonight and emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico on
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Slight strengthening is possible today before Dolly reaches
the Yucatan Peninsula. Slow strengthening is forecast on Monday
once Dolly emerges over the southern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles...280 km
from the center. Dolly could produce winds near tropical storm
force...especially in gusts...over the western tip of Cuba today.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by a NOAA
reconnaissance aircraft was 1008 mb...29.77 inches.
Dolly is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 6 inches across the
northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and western Cuba...with
isolated maximum amounts up to 10 inches. An additional 2 to 4
inches is expected in the Cayman Islands...with a storm total of up
to 8 inches.

Repeating the 1145 am EDT position...18.4 N...84.2 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds...45 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1008 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 200 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 500
PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Knabb