“....The NHC has become wishcasters instead of forecasters. So desperate are they to have a named storm, they went ahead and issued a name before it meets their own definition of a TD...”
Actually the poster of this thread jumped the gun. The NHC website has not made such announcement.
Do you want to make a correction to your post now? Or would you prefer to wait until 5:01PM ET...your choice.
Tropical Storm Public Advisory
Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on August 15, 2008
...Tropical Storm Fay forms...sixth Atlantic storm of the season...
Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft
indicate that the low pressure area over the Mona Passage became a
tropical storm as it moved into the eastern Dominican Republic.
At 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...the government of the Dominican Republic
has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Dominican Republic for
the entire north coast of the Dominican Republic and for the South
Coast east of San Pedro de macoris. A Tropical Storm Warning is
also in effect for the north coast of Haiti from gonaives
northward. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24
hours.
At 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...the government of Cuba has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for the provinces of Guantanamo...Santiago
de Cuba...and Granma.
At 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...the government of Cuba has issued a
tropical storm watch for the provinces of Holguin and Las Tunas. A
tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 18.5 north...longitude 69.4 west or about 35
miles... 55 km...east of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic and
about 395 miles...635 km...east-southeast of Guantanamo Cuba.
Fay is moving toward the west near 14 mph...22 km/hr. A general
motion toward the west-northwest is expected during the next day or
so. On the forecast track...the center of Fay will cross
Hispaniola tonight and Saturday...and pass near or over eastern
Cuba Saturday night and Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/hr...with higher
gusts...mainly over water to the north and east of the center.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km
from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb...29.77 inches.
Tides of 1 to 2 feet feet above normal can be expected in the
warning area in areas of onshore flow.
Fay is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8
inches over Hispaniola and eastern Cuba...with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches. These rains may produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.
Repeating the 500 PM AST position...18.5 N...69.4 W. Movement
toward...west near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds...40 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1008 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Beven
It was initialized as Fay on the models around 4pm, which is always a precursor to NHC naming a system.