We’re not going to see 2004 turnout. We’ll see more like a 2006 turnout. Republican turnout will be up from 2006 where it was completely demoralized but so will democratic turnout.
2004 was an aberration year where republicans were turned out in equal numbers to dem.
We’ll see a restoration to the typical +3 dem spread this year I expect.
Mac is behind, but he can still make it if independents break for him in the final voting and the GOP’s 72 hour effort is strong.
37D, 37R, and 26I was indeed the 2004 distribution. Here is a chart that contains this information for every election since 1972.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/independents/data-party-identification.html
Note that two years ago, in what was a very bad year for the GOP, the breakdown was 37D, 34R, and 29I. Note that the Democrats have never done better than 39% since 1986, have never had more than a 3 point advantage in any election since 2000 (and that happened only once, in 2006), haven’t done better than 38% since 2000, and have had 4 point advantages in only two election cycles (Presidential and mid-year) since 198
the unionistas are insane for obama.
in FL we have only the teacher’s union with any sizable power. They are pushing hard for the chancelor obama.