Posted on 11/01/2008 4:34:23 PM PDT by FiscalConservative1985
Most optimistic: McCain carries PA, VA, NL, OH, FL, CO, NV, IA, NH, and 1 vote in Maine. He wins 307-231.
What I consider "realistic": McCain carries FL, OH, NC, NV Obama carries: VA, CO, NM, IA, NH I have PA as a tossup, so it's Obama 265, McCain 252 with PA's 21 votes deciding the winner.
McCain 339 EVs.
Do a search for my postings and look for a thread called “PREDICTION THREAD”.
In that I explain my methodology.
269-269
At this point I believe Mac may very well take PA and that changes it all.
What happens with a tie though?
Two problems ~ first one is that the pundants and pollsters both think of Mark Warner as being "popular" in VA. He's not. He's actually thought of as a clown if thought of at all. Those of us who follow what he's up to were absolutely amazed that he showed up drunk and on crystal meth to deliver the worst speech ever given before a Democrat national convention.
What did he imagine he was showing us?
The second problem is that Warner will lose the critical component of the electorate, the "traditionalists", that put Jim Webb over the top. Those guys didn't like it that George Allen's mother had been a Jew during WWII. I seriously doubt they will like it that Obama's father is an African.
The "traditionalists" will vote, and they will control the outcome in yet another Virginia election. Given enough time they'll be out in public marching in their KKK robes and burning crosses in parks.
McCain 316 Fauxbama 222
McCain wins Popular vote 52.5-47.5%.
Compared with 2004, we pick up PA, NH, and WI. We lose NM. All other states remain the same.
Here’s mine, though I suspect I’m guessing too conservatively... just my nature... M-286 0-228
Obie 330.
339 is too high for either candidate.
I think it comes down to Virginia, Ohio, and Penn.
I think McCain takes the other swing states. Obama flips Iowa and New Mexico.
That means McCain needs all three to be sure. Losing PA but winning the other two sends it to congress and Obama takes office. McCain can also win with a combination of Pa and either of the other two.
My heart says McCain 290. My gut says Obama by a nose in a 269-269 contest. I really, really, really, really, really, really hope i’m wrong in a few days and I hope to get tons of crow in the inbox. I thinking we take Ohio and Virginia. Pa is the hard part.
I tie is decided in the House. I’m pretty sure it’s the incoming House and each state gets 1 vote.
McCain 295
Obama 253
and SOME rioting.
With a tie, the House appoints the Prez and the Senate appoints the VP.
Obviously Pelosi would appoint Obama.
But the Senate could get tricky. If Liebs votes with GOP it’d be a 50-50 split which in case Cheney gets tiebreaker. Say hello to VP Palin.
However, you know with the pending gains in Senate there will be many threats and bribes to the RINOs(Snowe, Collins, Coleman) so I’m sure Biden would get appointed.
who wins the other 24?
You've expressed your poor opinion of Southside Virginians before, independent of political affiliation. I have friends and business associates in Martinsville, Danville and South Boston, good conservatives all. Your broad brush does them a grave disservice. You sound like an SPLC shill with the hystrionics.
-PJ
Each State's delegation in the House of Representatives gets a single vote for the President, and each Senator gets a vote for the Vice President.
As of now, the Democrats control 27 of the State's delegations, so Obama would be President most likely.
But, not to fear, McCain will win with 309 EV.
I start with the 2004 map, give up red states NV, NM, CO, IA and VA; take away blue states PA and NH. That’s 272 electoral votes for McCain-Palin, and victory!
That’s how important PA is. A win there allows him to lose several of Bush’s states and still prevail.
http://news.yahoo.com/election/2008/dashboard?mapid=44542
“Good Conservatives” didn’t vote for Jim Webb and you know it. If your friends did, they’re exactly who I am talking about.
“That’s how important PA is. A win there allows him to lose several of Bush’s states and still prevail.”
I think Pa is the essential state.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.