Posted on 01/03/2009 3:08:02 AM PST by Las Vegas Dave
Well, the New Year is here and I've already made nine predictions for High-Definition in 2009, including $99 Blu-ray players and an end to Internet TV services Vudu and Apple TV and retailer Circuit City.
I also predicted that the Digital TV transition will create a ratings hardship for local TV stations with many viewers deciding not to participate in the switch due to its confusing nature.
So, do I have any more predictions for 2009?
Yes!
My crystal ball is still clear as a bell. So let's start the year with 5 more fearless forecasts for HDTV.
1. DIRECTV Cuts Back On Original Programming
The satcaster this year helped financed the third season of NBC's Friday Night Lights as part of a new effort to offer original programming on the dish. (For its investment, DIRECTV was permitted to show the third season in its entirety before it aired on NBC; the network will begin broadcasting the third season later this month.)
While an episode of FNL reportedly was viewed by roughly 700,000 DIRECTV viewers each week, I predict that the satcaster will not renew its partnership with NBC for a fourth season. In addition, DIRECTV will put the breaks on plans for other original programming partnerships.
Why?
The recession. Like everyone else, DIRECTV needs to tighten the belt and original programming is a luxury that it simply can't afford at this time.
2. The Digital TV Transition Will Be a Disaster
On February 17, 2009, all full-powered local TV stations will switch from analog to digital signals, meaning viewers will need a Digital TV, a converter box or a pay TV service to keep watching television. However, all signs point to a looming disaster when the transition occurs. The government is not ready; millions of viewers aren't ready; and many local stations aren't ready.
I predict that millions of Americans will either choose to stop watching TV entirely or will be unable to watch because of various technical complications with the converter boxes. This will cause many people to complain to their local congressmen, local stations, local media, local everyone.
Voter anger (and media hysteria) will be so intense that Congress will be forced to revisit the transition and try to find a quick fix. But there aren't any quick fixes, which means 2009 will be a terrible year for everyone involved. This transition was poorly conceived and even more poorly executed by the government and the industry. Now, they will have to pay the price for their mistakes.
3. Pay TV Providers Will Gain More Subs
However, some viewers who now get their local signals via off-air antennas will sign up with their local cable operator or a telco or satellite service shortly before the Digital TV transition or shortly thereafter. They will be desperate for a simple way to keep watching TV.
4. Small-Screen Digital TV Sales Will Rise In First Quarter
Likewise, many consumers who are fearful of losing their TV signals will run to their neighborhood store in search of a cheap digital set, preferably one under $500. Consequently, you'll see a significant rise in the sale of 32-inch and even 27-inch Digital TV/HDTVs in the first quarter of the year.
5. DIRECTV and Dish Network Will Merge
Okay, everyone says it can't happen because federal regulators would never approve it. (The FCC rejected a DIRECTV-Dish merger in 2002) But I say it has to happen. Dish Network is losing subs, folks, so it has to do something dramatic -- and soon -- to stay competitive.
While I wouldn't compare Dish to Detroit, the satcaster is in need of a bailout, but not from the feds. Dish needs a partner or a buyer and DIRECTV is the obvious choice. The feds would be irresponsible to reject a satellite merger in this economic environment.
LVD
(If you search Freerepublic using the keyword "“HDTV”, you will find most of the past HDTV postings.. )
bump
There, fixed it.
If I were a local TV PR rep, I would arrange to be sick when this happens.
TV sucks. Lost mine 6 years ago.
While I wouldn't compare Dish to Detroit ...
I (and my neighbors) were recently forced to change from our chosen providers and use only Dish Network. The provider is Mosaic Communications, handling Dish Network through a central dish here at the apartment complex. Our apartment manager’s home office ordered that Mosaic would be the exclusive provider.
Someone at the home office being paid off?
I’m not happy with their TV lineup. If I want to again watch FOX news I have to subscribe to their most expensive bundle - but I can watch “Free Speech TV”. A couple days ago when the converter box changed channels by itself I saw Cindy Sheehan giving a speech. I thought she retired. When it rains I have no signal. The internet service is touted as “high speed”, but is as slow as dialup.
I have an AppleTV and love it!! Several people I know have one and they all love them! Why don’t you??
Millions of analog tv users must have decided to ride it out till Big Brother shows up to rescue them on their door-step.
But I'm paying 5.99 for each HD movies!
I now have my 52" Sharp HD, HD-DVD Player & PlayStation III w/ Blu-Ray player.
That should last me a couple of years, huh Dave?
[blockquote]They will be desperate for a simple way to keep watching TV.[/blockquote]
You mean paying someone $50-100 per month to stick a satellite or cable box in between the TV and a piece of coax is simpler than sticking a free (subsidized) DTV conversion box back there yourself? Huh?
I do agree, however, than people might just buy a small HDTV instead though.
I don’t have enough data about #1 to comment, I agree with Swann about 2, 3, & 4, and I hope he’s wrong about #5.
DirecTV is a disaster, but subs don’t know that until they try to cancel their DirecTV service and get hit by the Early Termination Fee, or whatever DTV calls it these days.
If the FCC OKs a DTV/Dish merger, one of the stipulations HAS to be the death of the Early Termination Fees, at least the way DTV currently does it.
In their place, the company would itemize the bill each month to show how much of each payment goes toward the purchase or lease of the equipment. That itemization should also show the current balance the sub would have to pay for an early cancellation of service.
That way, the sub ALWAYS knows what they’ll have to pay if they cancel their service. In fact, DTV should have to make the Early Termination Fees show up prominently on their website when people sign up for the service, with the dollar amount clearly shown in the calculation of the monthly cost. And DTV reps HAVE to make it clear on the phone when they sign up new subs. The fees should never be more than $25, unless the sub fails to return the receiver.
Also, no more multi-year contracts. The technology changes far too quickly for anyone to be locked into a service contract for longer than that. And when a sub actually pays the full price to purchase their receiver, they should never have to pay an Early Termination Fee. Never. Not even if the receiver goes paws up and DTV has to replace it.
DirecTV is run by con-men who specialize in bilking their subs out of hundreds of dollars for those Early Termination Fees, and these con-men should be sent to prison, not rewarded by bonuses and promotions.
Can you tell I have ISSUES?
Through ATT, I signed up for Dish - I thought and was told AT THE TIME, it was for a year. When I tried to downgrade, I was told I signed up for TWO years. come June, I don’t care if I have TV or not - Dish is gone. Maybe even ATT - I will use my prepaid cell. The only thing (right now) that I want is the internet. When the o takes office (shudder), that may be a moot point anyway.
27” is a SMALL screen?
Guess that is what I get for not having a TV. I remember when 25” consoles were the rage...
Most(but not all) of the converter boxes are pretty good at recieving digital signals, in many cases the ATSC decoders inside the converter boxes are better than those in DTV sets.
The set-top box program is operated by the National Telecommunications Information Agency (NTIA) part of the Department of Commerce, not the FCC.
When the FCC had to figure out to put about 1,500 more channels into the TV band, an area which had been cosidered full, they made several planning assumptions, including antenna, and paramaters about the receiver. Unfortunately the real world results have not yet achieved the planning factors.
As a result DTV coverage areas are NOT as large or as robust as the analog signals. With an analog signal, the picture would get snowy, with a digital signal, you get a perfect picture until you get no picture.
The FCC last week released coverage area projections for every full power station in the county comparing analog coverage to digital coverage, and patting themselves on the back for only having 11% of the stations having a net loss of viewers. But, they used the same non real world planning factors.
full list:
http://www.fcc.gov/dtv/markets/
stations with problems:
http://www.fcc.gov/dtv/markets/report2.html
At the consumer end, some elderly people just absolutely do not know how to hook up the box.
The information campaign focused so much for so long on getting the coupons into the hands of the consumers, they overlooked the education aspect about antennas.
And the need for GOOD antennas is not being met by the likes of Radio Shack or Best Buy. An indoor antenna with a “loop” is not going to work.
I stand corrected on the NTIA vs. FCC. I thought the FCC was offering the boxes, but I don't need one so didn't bother to research it. The NTIA if I remember correctly has been fighting the switch DTV for years.
I will still install one for free to anybody that asks. I will even install an antenna.
So many people have either cable or satellite, I suspect this will only effect a small market of people that really don't watch much TV anyway. So you miss Oprah, this could be a good thing. :)
FReepmail.
One nice thing about digital TV though: no more "ghosting" like you can get with analog over-air broadcasts.
I sure hope dir & dish don't merge; my bill would be 500 overnight. Don't trust the liars at dir and dish can't compete with dir prices.
I would really like to see availability of Junior Hockey like NHL on dir tv. I'd gladly pay another 400/yr to watch OHL teams play regular.
As much as old Cuban is a big dem; I really like HDN and his programming. Art Mann & ariel HD photography of BC & Ireland really is good stuff.
Another question? What's after 1080P & diamond series Mitsubs? How soon?
Every time I see a commercial or PSA "warning" about the switchover, I can plan on a phone call within 5 minutes from my Mom asking if she is going to have a problem.
Maybe this is a city/country thing. I live in New Hampshire. I don’t know a single person who is still using an antenna to receive TV signals.
Sorry, my magic 8-ball is not working today...
Disaster?
Yep. Sounds about right for the roll out of a govt-mandated program.
So let's forge ahead, citizen!
Feb. 17th is as good a time as any; not much happens between the Super Bowl and the NCAA Tournament anyway...gives ‘em time to sort it out.
You are right. My Mom who is 83 this week has asked me a dozen times if she is going to have a problem. Each time I assure her that she is on Comcast and has no reason to worry. And then I cross my fingers that I am right on this.
I KNOW: LET'S GIVE 'EM A BAILOUT!
These people are also known as "those too stupid to vote." Anybody who hasn't heard about the DTV transition is beyond dense.
If she's on ComCast, or any cable system, she shouldn't notice a thing different.
It's been announced and in everyone's faces for well over a year.
Don't know about DTV = Too stupid to vote.
The perception is a bit different with a flat panel TV. My living room is pretty small, and I have a 37". I would never buy smaller than that. Maybe 32" for the master bedroom.
I have heard they are working on 2160P. Technically there are 2160P's available now in the 52" size that would set you back $40,000. That is 40K and not 4K.
An 82" Samsung model is described as follows: The prototype display has a massive 82” size and features a resolution of 3820x2160 pixels, which results in a total screen resolution of 8.3 megapixels. Current 1080p TVs run at 1920x1080 pixels or 2.1 megapixels. According to the manufacturer, the TV integrates a red/green/blue LED backlight, which raises the color saturation to 150%. The image refresh rate is 120 Hz.
If you want to read about it go here. If you want to buy it you better win the lottery.
http://www.tgdaily.com/html_tmp/content-view-37511-97.html
Now if you really want to go bannanas then there is http://www.engadget.com/2005/11/05/nhk-shows-off-some-live-7680-x-4320-super-hi-vision-tv-in/
NHK shows off some live 7680 x 4320 "Super Hi-Vision" TV in Japan running at 7680 x 4320 — 16 times the resolution of that lame old 1080i your grandparents are talking about.
I think not. Sounds a little like the "chicken little" sky is falling mentality of the Y2K non-event. The problems with the changeover will be very minor.
My prediction. Cable/DirecTV/Dish will all lose 5-10% of subscriptions to consumers purchasing antennas' to take advantage of the excellent pitcher quality of free OTA digital signals. The economic situation will help make this occur.
I concur. The transition has been handled as well as it could be (amazingly so considering the government is involved). All the whining and gnashing of teeth is garbage, it’s been the 21st century for most of a decade, time to shut off the analog band!
Wow! I have the same feeling about DirecTV. I was with Dish, then I signed up DirecTV and was lied to over an over. Once they had me installed, they finally gave me the truth. I cancelled within 24 hours, they took my money anyway. After several calls and preliminary talks with my bank, they finally refunded the wrongly taken ‘early termination fee’.
I don’t love Charlie Ergen at Dish, but will probably go back sooner than later.
But will American Idol still be on then?
I predict 2 to 6 million people (400,000 to 2 million households) will be unable to get their TV shows on 2/18. How many of those will be Idol fans?
Yup, it’ll be a disaster.
Ha, that's a hoot. The problem I see is with the moms who don't call. Wait until the switchboard operator starts fielding those calls from all the moms and grandmas who are missing the weather forecast. One of the poster's replied that many of these type of people are too stupid to vote. But I offer as exhibit one: Obama
Stupid isn't a new concept in America.
Naysayers also said that regulators would never allow Sirius and XM to merge either. Guess what? There's only one Satellite Radio Service now.
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