Yep, high tech tools, great computer models, and the forecasters are worse than ever. I can remember, back in the day, they could normally get tomorrow right. Now, they have trouble getting this afternoon right.
How's that common sense? The acceleration due to gravity is the same for all objects regardless of their weight and mass. Anyone who passed Jr. high physical science should know this. The terminal velocity of raindrops would necessarily be higher for smaller drops due to the low wind resistance.