The Stimulus’ “Lagging Indicator” Myth

yossigestetner.com ^ | 9/26/09 | Yossi Gestetner

[goods]

Obama and the Dems credit the recent better job market to the Stimulus bill, but defend the-still-week job market by saying that jobs are a “lagging indicator,” it lags the rest of the economy when it comes to improvements, therefore the Stimulus does not yet fully reflect in the job market.

The Problem is this: February, the month the stimulus was signed and before any stimulus money was dished out, the economy lost 60,000 jobs less than in January, and in March the economy lost even less jobs than in February. If the “logging indicator” excuse is true, why did the economy in March, the month stimulus money merely started rolling out, lose less jobs than it did in each of the two months before it? The March improvement cannot be attributed to the stimulus considering jobs are a lagging indicator. Right? It takes time for the Stimulus to reflect in the market. Aint it so?

Whichever way you will cook it, you are toast: if you use “lagging” is a factor, how/why did we get the March improvements? You will of course have to agree that some (or most) of March happened on its own (just as February certainly did happen on its own because it was before the Stimulus). If so, how much of the general improved job markets since then took place on its own independent of Obama? And if you will say logging is not a factor and the better March number IS a direct result of the stimulus, why is the job market now, a half year later, still not doing better than it is?

[OCCASparky]

the recent better job market

I stopped reading there. Better job market? In what way?

[utherdoul]

Yeah better job market the fattest part of my @ss. The only thing the stimulus package has accomplished is that when I get my degree I’ll only be able to get a job in the chinese repo bussiness.

[JoSixChip]

It’s what ever they say it is at any point in time. Just ask the media.

[Intolerant in NJ]

Obama and the Dems credit the recent better job market to the Stimulus bill...this is one amazing bill - less than 15% of the money appropriated in the bill has been spent to date, yet it's already improved the economy, increased jobs, and cured cancer - wonder what it would have done had everything called for been spent......

[Rocky]

Still-week job market. Probably should be still-weak job market.

Any way you slice it, the stimulus was a dud.

I’m still betting that the stimulus money will flow like water next year (election year).