Don’t know. I’ve been tracking on this for a day or two. Here’s what I’ve heard (just hearsay, mind you):
Israel is evacuating all non-essential personnel form northern and eastern borders. A poster in Tel Aviv is fearful. There is some appearance of preparation for war by Hamas/Hezbollah, etc. We are bulking up our patriot missile presence and our naval presence. I have a friend who just got deployed to the UAE; she was being told if war broke out in the region, we would be acting from there.
Back to us:
1) We, even with Obama at the helm, would be a backup for Israel. Therefore, Iran would have a motive for having us unable or unwilling to help Israel.
2) Just a few days ago, Iran launched a new Satellite into orbit called “Omid” which means “Hope,” (irony there, eh?). Omid is in a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) not unlike that of a classic ICBM, ostensibly with simple biology experiments on board (worms, turtles, etc.).
Theories on Omid:
a) If the right kind of nuclear device is on board, a detonation a few hundred miles over the US could result in a serious EMP (Electro-Magnetic Pulse) event. This would be severely disabling to the US technology infrastructure, taking down the power grid indefinitely, not to mention everything attached to it, as well as any insufficiently shielded independent electronics, including our own satellite fleet, if in line of sight to the detonation.
This would severely hobble any US aid to Israel, clearing the way for an all-out middle-eastern war with Israel at the disadvantage.
b) A more benign theory is that merely de-orbiting the satellite to a precise and symbolic target would send the West a “stunning” message, that Iran has fully entered the fraternity of nuclear powers and any sanctions against it will be useless.
3) Non-Omid theories
1) A new alignment between Iran and China will be announced, having roughly the same “stunning” effect of demonstrating the West’s permanent inability to hamper Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
2) Iran will openly conduct an underground nuclear detonation. Again, the real objective being to get the sanctions removed by created a sense of futility. However, some have determined that not long ago an earthquake in a remote location in Iran had a seismic signature that fits with a nuclear detonation.
2) The anticipated protests of the Iranian people on February 11th will be met with such a complete, Tiananmen Square-like response that the West will never again interfere in Iran’s internal affairs.
3) Iran will assert control of the Straights of Hormuz, “punching” the West economically. This could be coordinated with a Chinese action to sell off US bonds, driving our economy into a profound chaos.
4) A freighter sits somewhere close to the US with a missile that can be launched straight up and detonated for it’s EMP effect. With only minutes to respond, it is uncertain we could defend ourselves. See EMP discussion above.
Supporting this is the fact that over the last year, Iran has conducted a number of missile tests which exactly match this profile.
4) Iran is playing psych-ops with the West; all the above scenarios are being tossed out there to get attention and distract from the internal turmoil of the country. Nothing significant will happen.
What do I think? The war prep in Israel is real. Omid is real, but uncertainty keeps us from knowing whether they mean us harm by it or not. In theory, in their theological context it works best if we are drawn offside and make the first move. Personally, I think this is a hard count designed to do just that.
But in the end, I just don’t know.
Pray for the peace of Jerusalem.
Apologies for the numbering errors in my list. It kept growing ...
Thank you for the post. It’s thought-provoking. How do you feel that an EMP attack would hamper response to an attack on Israel ? NORAD and current contingency plans have already accounted for this. NORAD and our own ICBMs don’t care about EMP-based first strike.
The response of our President, however..... Now I see a problem. A US targetting EMP is unnecessary. Obama is Iran’s best defense against US intervention.
If Iran is intent on harming us, they’d better get it right first strike, or I don’t think we’ll give them a second chance, and I don’t think the administration in power at the time will get one either.
5) Iran announces to the world that they have successfully planted an islamic spy in a top political leadership position in a western nation and that he will single-handedly dismantle that nation’s economic and military power using its own liberal leftists to enact laws to accomplish the takeover.