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Certainly as with any major event, there is an ever present sense on conspiracy around it. This is true with Pearl Harbor, just as it’s true with the Kennedy Assassination and 9/11.

Unfortunately, as new bits and pieces come out, it tends to only add to conspiracies rather than really vett fact from fiction. I cannot speak to whether the CIA is purposely blocking the release of decoded JN-25-B code that was translated, but I do think if they were (wouldn’t this fall under the NSA though since it’s signals intelligence?) they are not holding a smoking gun. I seriously doubt that any of these decrypts have FDR’s initials on them with a note to “withhold this intel” on it. This is what I do know:

FDR knew we were going to be attacked. And so did everyone in the military establishment.

All stations in the Pacific were warned as such but when it comes down to potential points of contact with the Japanese, Pearl Harbor is not mentioned as a specific target in the communiques that invoked WPL 46 (The Navy’s portion of War Plan Orange). In fact the war warning sent by Admiral Stark states that “AN AGRESSIVE MOVE BY JAPAN IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NUMBER AND EQUIPMENT OF JAPANESE TROOPS AND THE ORGANIZATION OF NAVAL TASK FORCES INDICATES AN AMPHIBIOUS EXPEDITION AGAINST EITHER THE PHILIPPINES, THAI, OR KRA PENINSULA OR POSSIBLY BORNEO.” The Navy was looking at the southwestern Pacific, not in the direction of Pearl.

Portions of the JN-25-B code were being read in 1941, but how much is a matter of debate. Also, that code went silent on the 4th of December when the encipherment was changed. By the 4th, the armada was on its way under radio silence anyway to that’s not a big issue. Of the code that was read there is no definitive proof of exactly when some critical information was decoded and what channels that information made it through.

So my assessment of the events is that we all knew that Japan was going to attack, but all the military planners agreed that the Japanese would stick close to their home waters and attack the Philippines and perhaps Guam (as far as American possessions go). The Japanese strategists as a whole were very Mahanian in general (and continued to be through the war despite the great air battles). They believed in the Mahan doctrine of a decisive battle, preferably in by luring them as close to their home waters (and resources) as possible. It was Yamamoto that thought outside that box and proposed these grand long arm strategies as well as the dependence on air power. He was a minority of this doctrine and it was only his established clout that carried it through to fruition.

As to whether FDR knew Pearl was going to get hit and did nothing to stop it. I’m with henkster in that I feel that is conspiratorial clap trap. I don’t think anyone would argue that FDR wanted us in the war. He wanted us to take on Hitler and to help Britain. Rainbow 5, which was the established plan at the time of December 7th makes that very clear. That’s why the Chicago Tribune jumped on leaking the war plan when Senator Wheeler leaked it to them. That paper was very anti-FDR and jumped on the opportunity to expose him as a warmonger.

However, I don’t believe that he would do nothing if he knew the Japanese were going to hit a specific target. It just doesn’t pass the test of common sense to me. Why would a leader put his entire Western front in peril just to go to war. He knew about the coming attack, prepared his fleet and whooped the Japanese butts over Pearl Harbor, he would have achieved the same ends. The fact that the Japanese attacked us would not have changed, and that was the true catalyst of us going to war. If we had repelled the attack, we still would have had losses, the nation still would have been enraged, and we still would have declared war on Japan. And on December 11th, Germany still would have declared war on the U.S.

My opinion on this is mirrored by Pearl Harbor Survivor James L. Evans USMC:

“I cannot imagine any President or anybody else that would sink his navy to go to war. I mean it makes little sense. Now if Roosevelt or anybody in the Navy Department, Army or whatever knew about it, why not repel them? It would have served the same purpose.”