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To: Cringing Negativism Network

No polls of New York, either! A dozen pollsters polled within a couple days of the primary... then nobody has conducted a poll since. Since the primary days’ pollsters’ results varied from the Democrats leading by only one, to leading by twenty-six, you’d think someone would want to find out what’s going on, wouldn’t you?

My real suspicion: Most of these new pollsters (Rasmussen, SurveyUSA, Zogby, Research2000) aren’t really basing their results on just their own poll data, but are looking over their shoulders for clues to interpreting their poll data. When they get data from other pollsters, they’re happy to chime in. When that data is lacking, they clam up. It makes it even tougher for them when their unofficial sources go berzerk (Gallup, Siena), silent (Mason-Dixon), or get pressured to produce left-leaning data (PPP, IPSOS, AP, etc.)


10 posted on 10/06/2010 5:46:46 AM PDT by dangus
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To: dangus

“Honest” polling firms: Quinnipiac, Marist, Suffolk, etc.. Yeah, the colleges. The problem is that they’re prone to statistical variation and having to guess at what a “likely” voter or a valid sample result is. That’s where Rasmussen comes in. They’re constantly monitoring shifting national trends in motivation, partisan allegiance, etc., and know how to “cook” their results. I think Rasmussen is striving for accuracy, but their methods are secretive and their raw data is unavailable.


11 posted on 10/06/2010 5:53:02 AM PDT by dangus
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To: dangus
No polls of New York, either!

Actually, a Siena poll from a couple of days ago had Cuomo up +24. Apparently, even New Yorkers aren't keen on people who threaten to beat up reporters, no matter how badly they might need it....

12 posted on 10/06/2010 5:54:25 AM PDT by Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus (is a Jim DeMint Republican. You might say he's a funDeMintalist conservative.)
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