TV Tech: 10 Dumbest Things I've Seen In 10 Years

Washington, D.C. (March 8, 2011) -- Editor's Note: To celebrate the 10th anniversary of TVPredictions.com, over the next several months I plan to publish a series of features honoring what I think represents the '10 Best' in the field of TV technologies.

(And in some cases, '10 Worst' articles will expose companies and people who I think are failing to strive toward excellence, or, in some cases, not even making a serious effort to satisfy their customers.)

So today, I offer the '10 Dumbest Things I've Seen In The Last 10 Years of TV Technology'

In 10 years of covering TV technology at TVPredictions.com, I've seen some smart things -- and I've seen some dumb ones. The latter category always fascinates me because it's hard to believe that otherwise smart executives can sometimes make such foolish decisions. But they do and so...

1. 3D TV Based on the success of one damn movie, Avatar, an entire industry, from TV makers to studio chiefs to movie theater owners, has spent hundreds of millions of dollars, maybe billions, on a new technology that few consumers actually want.

Folks, Avatar would have made a fortune at the box office if the movie was in 3D, 2D, or perhaps even black and white. Say the name James Cameron and moviegoers come a running. That's an historical fact. But the movie and TV bigwigs somehow interpreted Avatar's success as consumers saying they want all movies, or at least, most movies in 3D. And even worse, they concluded that people want to watch 3D movies, sports, guitar lessons, operas, you name it, in 3D at home.

But thus far, the executives have been spectacularly wrong. Only about 1 million 3D TVs were sold in the U.S. during their launch year -- and the 3D channels on cable and satellite systems are watched by fewer people than a September baseball game between the Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Indians. And 3D theatrical movies continue to struggle with some wags saying they know a movie is terrible if the studio decides to convert it to 3D, in a last ditch effort to generate some box office.

2. The Video iPod In 2005, Apple introduced a new iPod with a 2.5-inch video screen that was supposed to entice consumers to watch movies and TV shows while on the go. However, I said at the time that it was a dumb idea because few people would want to watch their favorite shows -- or even lousy ones -- on a 2.5-inch screen. Why watch on such a small screen when you could watch your faves on a 60-inch screen or bigger at home? However, tech journalists and other Silicon sympathizers proclaimed that the video iPod would revolutionize the world.

They were wrong -- and dumb. It wasn't long before research indicated that consumers were downloading movies and TV shows from Apple's iTunes store, but they were watching them on their much larger PC screens, not the video iPod.

In subsequent years, the video iPod concept has migrated to larger screen devices such as the iPad and laptops. And you don't hear much from Apple anymore about the 2.5-inch video screen concept. Instead, the company is pushing mobile video on the devices I just mentioned -- or they are promoting their new Apple TV set-top, which, lo and behold, uses an actual television (maybe even a 60-inch one) to display movies and shows.

3. The Launch Of Voom Chuck Dolan, then the 78-year-old Cablevision chairman, cajoled his company in 2003 to launch a satellite TV business called Voom. The service, which featured roughly 40 HD channels, was intended to targeted the high-def audience which was being underserved at the time by the cable and satellite operators. The problem was, though, that DIRECTV and Dish Network -- Voom's main competitors -- had millions of subscribers and enormous resources. The two companies had been in business for nearly a decade and were well entrenched -- and they planned to expand their high-def lineups in the very near future.

So I predicted that Voom would not succeed. This is what I wrote in 2005 when Dolan tried to buy the sagging Voom from his own company.

"DIRECTV...is launching four new satellites over the next two years so it can provide up to 150 national HDTV channels by 2007;and it will start offering local high-def channels in 12 markets sometime this summer. Why would anyone subscribe to an upstart satellite service when DIRECTV will soon provide an even better HDTV lineup to go along with its established satellite service?"

But despite the obvious problems facing Voom, I was ripped apart by industry officials and Voom apologists who maintained that it would survive. (See this message board from Satelliteguys.us. They thought I was crazy for saying Voom would fail.)

But Voom did fail and the collapse nearly tore apart the executive wing of Cablevision.

4. TiVo Focuses on Retail Sales In 1997, TiVo launched as one of the first two DVR companies in the U.S. (ReplayTV was the other.) Almost immediately, the tech world announced that TiVo would take over the world. The DVR, they said, was so much better than the VCR that consumers would soon switch one for the other.

Well, the tech world was onto to something there. The DVR was a stunning innovation. But the dumb part here is that in the late 1990s and early 2000s, TiVo CEO Mike Ramsey believed that DVR technology and TiVo was one and the same. Instead of focusing on licensing TiVo's unique software to cable and satellite operators, who controlled nearly 90 percent of U.S. households, Ramsey thought his particular DVR product was so good that consumers would run to the store to buy one.

But they didn't. As much as they liked TiVo, consumers preferred the convenience of their cable or satellite operator bringing a generic DVR to their home and installing it for a small monthly fee. So long as the generic DVR did much the same thing that TiVo did, that was good enough for them. So, soon, millions of cable and satellite homes had DVRs, but not TiVo DVRs, which sat gathering dust in retail showrooms.

Ramsey's arrogance in choosing the retail strategy over the licensing option gave the cable and satellite companies home field advantage. Now, TiVo, which has fallen from 4.4 million subscribers to around two million now, is trying to use its patents to play catch up. The company (under new leadership; Ramsey was asked to step aside) is hoping the courts will force cable and satellite operators to use TiVo to avoid a patent infringement defeat.

But even if they win in the courts, it's probably too late. Consumers are content with their current DVRs.

5. Toshiba Launches the HD DVD In 2006, the majority of movie studios decided to support the Sony-backed Blu-ray high-def player, which was intended to replace the DVD as the main vehicle for home video. The studio support meant that Sony -- and its Blu-ray partners -- could count on the majority of new video releases being on Blu-ray. And everyone knows that whoever controls distribution controls the business.

And that was dumb. Less than two years later -- and after hundreds of millions of dollars in losses -- Toshiba pulled the plug on HD DVD.

6. TV Programmers Decide to Use 720p HD For Sports More than a decade ago, when High-Definition TVs started to show up on store shelves, the networks made some decisions. Some, such as Fox and ABC/ESPN, decided they would present high-def video in a format called 720p. Others, such as CBS and NBC, decided they would use 1080i.

Over the years, it's become distressingly obvious that 720p or 1080i works just fine for dramas, comedies and other scripted fare. But for sports, 1080i captures the fast motion of play so much better than 720p that the 720p networks struggle to keep up. High-def viewers are constantly screaming that the HD picture during sportscasts on Fox, ABC and ESPN fail to meet the same standards as seen on 1080i networks.

The 720p network executives went with their chosen format because they thought it would save money -- and, in part, they thought viewers wouldn't notice the difference.

7. Congress Sets the Digital TV Transition Amid Chaos Because it wanted to generate revenue from auctioning off analog spectrum, the federal government decided it would force local TV channels to only broadcast digital signals. That meant that viewers had to get a Digital TV, or a digital converter box, by the Digital TV transition deadline to continue watching television.

So when did the government decide the transition would take place? February 17, 2009 -- just a few weeks after the Bush administration would leave office. That meant that Bush administration officials would not be around when the transition occurred -- but they would be in office for the most important decisions leading up to the transition. In other words, they wouldn't be around to take responsibility if the decisions backfired.

Consequently, many decisions were made in a half-assed fashion and some important DTV transition posts were constantly having to be filled and re-filled. For obvious reasons, Bush administration officials saw little benefit in supervising the transition so they either left their positions or (possibly) sabotaged the transition so the next administration, the Obama one, would be stuck with the result.

The result of this poor planning is that Congress had to move the transition to the summer of 2009 at great expense. And to this day, there are reports that many low-income Americans still do not have the right equipment to watch the new digital signals.

8. Studios to Charge $30 To Watch PPV Movies at Home Later this year, DIRECTV is likely to be the first TV provider to offer movies just 60 days after their theatrical release -- and at least one month prior to their Blu-ray and DVD release. I can't tell you how dumb this is, but I'll try.

If the movie was available on the same day as its theatrical release -- or perhaps a month after its theatrical release -- a family of four might justify paying $30 to watch it at home. The $30 would be cheaper than paying for four movie tickets.

But if the movie is available just a month before its DVD or Blu-ray release, who is going to pay $30 knowing that it will soon be available for $4.99 as a rental? (Or you could buy it on Blu-ray for less than $30 and keep it forever.)

9. Celebrities Pile On the Makeup to Combat HDTV When HDTVs started to enter U.S. homes in the early part of the last decade, many celebrities and local TV news people went into a panic. For the first time, viewers could see the aging signs and facial imperfections of the stars.

But instead of trying to subtly cover up the problems with light makeup and trick lighting, the celebs pilled on the goo. Watching local news programs, or national talk shows, in HD was like watching the clowns at Ringling Bros. The makeup was so excessive that it just made everything worse. The celebs didn't realize that the ultra-heavy foundations and rouges were clearly visible to the viewer. (And then they started to use plastic surgery to combat HD; dear God...)

In time, makeup artists adjusted to the new picture format and developed new techniques that soften facial imperfections. (Although many celebs and local news people are still seeing their careers being damaged by high-def's candid pictures; just ask the acne-scarred Cameron Diaz for one.) But for a few years there, there was plenty of dumb to be seen on screen.

10. Journalists Predict Porn Will Revolutionize New Products For the last 10 years, every time a new video product is introduced, from Blu-ray to 3D TV to the video iPod, both tech and mainstream journalists publish articles saying that porn will help make the new device a success. For instance, they said that video iPod owners would download porn movies on their little 2.5-inch screens.

The reason the journalists keep repeating this argument is that some consumers did buy VCRs in the 1980s so they could watch dirty videos at home. But there was a reason why they did that then -- and they don't use new devices for porn now. In the 1980s, it was not so easy to access pornography. Basically, you went to a sleazy movie theater or you got a VCR.

But now you can get porn everywhere -- the Net, on TV, you name it. So there's little reason why someone would go out of his way to buy an expensive new toy just so he can watch porn.

But because porn helped the rise of the VCR in the 1980s, journalists can't help themselves to write that it will boost a totally different product in a totally different time.

And to this day, there are reports that many low-income Americans still do not have the right equipment to watch the new digital signals.

I don't believe that for a second. If there are people in that situation, they're dumber than the idiots who hung out in New Orleans for Katrina.

Wow, until now I never realized the huge digital crossover delay scam was a George Bush act of sabotage !

Thankfully Captain telepromter is just destroying
EVERYTHING ELSE !

My GF was pressured by a patient to go with Comcast (she’s a Comcast emp). So GF has me review the tech specs for the Comcast DVR, and then talk with the Comcast rep.

Compared to her current Dish ViP722 DVR, it was a no brainer. Going with Comcast would have been a step down. You can plug a 1+TB USB drive into the 722. In addition, it can record three separate channels at once. 2 Dish, and 1 OTA. And the built in drive was larger.

Dumb.

How can you come out with a DVR with lessor specs than others currently available, especially if they’re available to a competitors customer you’re trying to entice.

Dumb

And personally, I like the Dish DVR software better than the TiVo. I’ve seen the TiVo on friends systems, but I still like the Dish better.

He’s got #5 exactly back-assward; HD-DVD was the agreed format, worked on for years by manufacturers and content providers, when Sony decided to pee in the pool, ditch the consortium, and launch its own proprietry HD format. Sony then spent billions in bribes and ‘incentives’ to muscle others into accepting Blu. The final blow was a half-a-billion dollar bribe to Warners to get their agreement to switch exclusively to Blu; within days, Toshiba folded. Up to then it could have gone either way.

Sony svcks.

And regarding VOOM, executive greed got the better of that company. Its HD programming was superior to anything anyone else was offering back then, and superior to most HD (Oprah, anyone? Green?) even today. Their failure to reach agreement on contract renewals with Dish killed them when Dolan wouldn’t moderate his demands. Just plain stupid.

I recently got Bluray, solely because I wanted a 400 disc megachanger so my kids would stop destroying my movies. It also upconverts all my old DVDs. I never bought any high-def movies.

I have to admit, Bluray is awesome, but I’m still only buying movies I don’t have, and only when they are a huge deal. I did get Fantasia for the kids for Christmas, and that is unbelievable on the 50” plasma. :)

As for TiVO. I remember the marketing blitz in 2000-2001 for TiVo. At the time we all had VCRs and were skeptical. In 2002 I purchased TiVo anyway and the installer said that TiVo was the biggest advance in TV since the VCR and color. I thought it was hyperbole, but soon understood and probably "sold" TiVo to 10 other familes.

So I never understood why the TiVo could not parlay their invention into market dominating force, and had to let cable operators steal it from them.

The DVR along with the Smartphone were major behavior changers of the decade.

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