I was thinking Rove believed Sarah Palin joining the race would draw from Rick Perry to divide the conservative vote, paving the way for Romney (Rove’s pick), but that doesn’t seem to be the case.
According to this poll, Sarah Palin would draw some from Rick Perry, but it would be a smaller percentage overall since he is already so far ahead, plus supporters are now polling that most will stick with Perry, and Sarah Palin would pull a little from Rick Santorum and slightly from Newt Gingrich, but mostly from Michele Bachmann with Michele Bachmann taking the biggest hit from a Sarah Palin candidacy. Looking at these poll results, a Sarah Palin candidacy would basically take Michele Bachmann OUT.
However, Sarah Palin, who is somewhat liked by some independents, does draw some from Mitt Romney as well, as the poll here shows.
You will see in the poll results below that even if Karl Rove thinks Sarah Palin would take out Rick Perry to make way for Mitt Romney, it doesn’t look like it would work that way.
From:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_US_0824513.pdf
Excerpt:
Q11 What if neither Sarah Palin nor Paul Ryan ran
for President, and the candidates were just
Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry,
Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum. Who would
you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ......................................... 16%
Herman Cain................................................... 6%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 8%
Jon Huntsman................................................. 3%
Ron Paul ......................................................... 6%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 33%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 20%
Rick Santorum................................................ 4%
Someone else/Not sure .................................. 5%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, Ron
Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ......................................... 10%
Herman Cain................................................... 7%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 7%
Jon Huntsman................................................. 2%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 13%
Ron Paul ......................................................... 6%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 27%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 17%
Rick Santorum................................................ 3%
Someone else/Not sure .................................. 7%
And here is another polling source which indicates that Sarah Palin entering the race does not break the votes enough to help Mitt Romney but instead hurts him:
From:
Excerpt:
The poll delivered still more bad news for Mr. Romney, showing that an entry by former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin into the race, as looks increasingly likely, would further weaken his position. With Ms. Palin in the race, a quarter of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents said they would still support Mr. Perry, while Mr. Romney’s support would dip to 14%. Ms. Palin would come in tied with Mr. Paul at 11%.
Palin historically draws votes two-to-three times greater than her pre-election poll numbers. Perhaps because of all the negative press propaganda which has been hallmarks of the negative campaigning run against her, there are seemingly always far mor people who are going to vote for her on election day than are willing to admit it in advance.
One thing is certain: She rarely polls well, and she mostly always wins. Go figure.
Short version, those numbers you posted ain't worth crap.
8^D