[Patrick1]

Obviously the candidate could make a difference in specific states, i.e. Christie in New Jersey, Romney in Michigan. But not much matters about who the candidate is, this election is about the failed Obama Presidency.

[Hoodat]

New Hampshire makes it 270. ‘Nuff said.

[cuban leaf]

This is assuming Obama would be the Democratic candidate in 2002. I’d bet a Gold Eagle that he won’t. I choose that coinage because it is all that will be worth anything by then.

[Scott from the Left Coast]

I could see a challenger sweeping all of those toss-up states.

[xkaydet65]

Unfortunately I can see the GOP losing all the toss ups. Demographics in some of these states are the GOP’s enemy. I see no hope in Jersey or Pa. and Michigan is a stretch. I think it comes down to NH.

[buccaneer81]

Ohio is also a toss-up. Be very glad the presidential election is a 13 months away; we have a ballot issue next month that is going to draw a record number of Democrats to vote (and unions to cheat.)

[nascarnation]

This math only works in a 2-way race, and I agree totally.

The problem comes with a Romney nomination producing a Tea Party candidate leading to a Clintonian plurality win for Baraq.

Surely Axlegrease and Plouffe are smart enough to figure this out.....

[LS]

The problem with that analysis is that whereas a Christie (maybe) wins you NJ, it probably loses you some place like OH or possibly a NC.

[federal__reserve]

If Barack Hussein Obama gets re-elected with current economic situation in place, we can safely assume the United States is done, finished, finito. With his re-election we will become a 3rd world country for several decades to come.

[Grunthor]

Republicans will take both Nevada and Iowa and possibly Pennsylvania.

[lurk]

Is there an electable Republican candidate right now?

[JLS]

So you are saying that any GOP nominee would win any state G.W.Bush won twice except Colorado and Nevada. Given the results of the 2010 governors race, I would move Nevada in GOP column if the race were held today. I suspect the GOP nominee would win Colorado too.

Then there are the states that G.W. Bush won once, Iowa, New Hampshire and New Mexico. I can see almost any GOP nominee getting all of these too. N.H. is another place where the 2010 races make it appear to have returned to form.

Then there is the state that was likely stolen from G.W. Bush twice. The margins for the Dims in 2000 and 2004 were very slim and for the first time this presidential election will have a voter ID law. I suspect that holding down voter fraud may give it to the GOP nominee.

Finally there are Pennsylvania and Michigan. PA was particularly close in 2004. They could slip into the GOP camp if things continue as they have been.

[Sylvester McMonkey McBean]

If Pa can pass their Electoral College apportionment bill, the pubbie is a shoe-in. :)