Posted on 01/01/2012 10:53:57 AM PST by TBBT
KNOXVILLE, Iowa – Even before votes are cast here, movement conservatives across the country are beginning to fear that 2012 will be a replay of the last GOP presidential primary: conservatives divided between candidates, enabling a center-right contender to march up the middle and claim the nomination. Time is running short on activist Republicans who have long yearned for a unifying Mitt Romney alternative in the race – leading some to worry that if they don’t stop him in Iowa on Tuesday, they may not be able to stop him at all.
Rick Santorum’s late surge in Iowa, coupled with the apparent determination of Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich to make a three-week stand through South Carolina, could augur for a bloody, multi-party battle on the right while Romney rides strength in Iowa and New Hampshire. That’s led some movement veterans to call for the base to rally around whichever conservative does best in the caucuses on Tuesday — a distinction that polls are showing is likely to go to Santorum. “I could see the conservative movement coalescing around somebody that comes out of Iowa strong and sort of becomes the conservative candidate out of Iowa and into New Hampshire,” said conservative strategist Greg Mueller, a onetime adviser to the Pat Buchanan and Steve Forbes campaigns. “You could see conservatives nationally start to call on the movement, which is not a monolithic thing, to encourage their supporters to get behind the one candidate who might have a shot at winning.”
In some quarters on the right, exasperation with the fractured state of affairs has already boiled over. David Lane, an influential and low-profile Christian conservative, wrote in an email to associates Friday that he feared a redux of 2008, when Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee split the conservative vote to give John McCain a crucial win in South Carolina.
“We have Fred Thompson to thank for McCain as the Republican nominee in 2008,” wrote Lane, who said he sees Santorum playing a similar role this time by undercutting better-funded opponents.
Referring to the local social conservative leaders in Iowa who have endorsed the former Pennsylvania senator in recent weeks, Lane continued, “If Santorum gets traction, we’ll have Santorum (and the IA ‘Family Policy Boys’) to thank for Romney as the Republican nominee in '12, and the reelection of Obama on Nov. 6, 2012.”
In an email to POLITICO, Lane elaborated: “Right now it looks like 2008. Evangelicals, generally speaking, don’t understand politics.”
Well said...
Perry and Michele Bachmann are headed straight to South Carolina and skipping New Hampshire after the caucuses. Not Santorum. In a brief interview following a campaign stop in this central Iowa town, Santorum said that he was headed to the Granite State on Wednesday in an effort to build on expected momentum coming out of the caucuses.
*snip*
Perry and Michele Bachmann are headed straight to South Carolina and skipping New Hampshire after the caucuses. Not Santorum. In a brief interview following a campaign stop in this central Iowa town, Santorum said that he was headed to the Granite State on Wednesday in an effort to build on expected momentum coming out of the caucuses.
*snip*
Some veterans of Huckabee’s campaign say they’ve seen this movie before, arguing that the Pennsylvanian should consider ceding New Hampshire to Romney to prevent Perry from making a strong stand in the first southern primary state.
Tactical error? Probably. Good news for Newt and Perry fans.
Even at this late moment, there’s still no clear consensus among conservatives, in Iowa or nationally, as to which of Romney’s foes is the best bet for the primaries and the general election. Though Santorum appears to have the momentum in Iowa, there are serious doubts about whether he has the infrastructure and money to compete with Romney into mega-states such as Florida.
Said before...
“There’s going to be a lot of pressure on all of these other candidates to get with the team, get with the program and line up behind Mitt Romney,” said Muth, who leans toward Gingrich in the race. “If they can’t rally behind Gingrich, they’re going to come to the conclusion that they have to settle for Romney whether they like it or not.”
History will record that Jonathan Martin
was, and is, ‘handmaiden’ to Mitt Romney the Backstabber.
Martin and Politico, for Romney and Obama,
the ineligible twins, tried to take out
each conservative candidate to rob the American
people of their choice.
Prepare for incoming fire, TBBT.
Don’t you know that Santorum is the chosen one (this week, anyway)?
Time for all the other candidates to leave the field and concede the contest to little Ricky, don’tcha know? < /sarcasm >
Yeah. We're dumb.
It's a wonder we can even tie our shoe laces, Mr. Lane.
And the thing they left out: Florida is incredibly liberal these days.”
They might try tightening up on the voting regs down there and count the military vote for a change. That’d change things. Not announcing the winner before the polls close in the panhandle would help, too.
SC '08
McCain 33%
Huck 30% (despite snowstorms all day in key parts of the state)
Thompson 16%
Romney 15%
Paul 4%
More cartewauling...
Every commentator, political consultant, and analyst (running the gamut of political persuasions) in every article that I’ve read in the last few days (and I’ve read MANY) have made the same observations on the likelihood (the lack thereof) of Santorum going anywhere.
You don’t have to like the analysis or the results that it foretells (I don’t), but the reality of the situation is obvious and remains the same.
Absolutely! Look at the two leftists they elected in 2010 for Senator and Governor for example: Marco Rubio and Rick Scott.
Geeze.
Hank
Just follow the money and you find where the battle is. Even with Newt driven down to 4th or 5th place in the Iowa race, Romney is concerned only with Newt. He continues still running hit ads against Newt and knows he needs to demoralize Gingrich and the conservatives before he has to face them in SC. He wants an early knockout of Newt out and would love to go against Santorum. I think there will be a backlash in SC and Newt will lead it.
this is just totally incorrect. the field is too big at this point to unify behind a single candidate. romney can’t get above 20-25%. other than the bonkerz paulbots, everything else is the anti-romney vote.
and besides, iowa is just irrelevant. a caucus is a mob. it’s a ridiculous way to pick a presidential nominee.
Hmmmmm.... Prediction: It won't be necessary after the Tues evening results, imho.
Interesting info. Problem is Huckster was every bit the fraud that McCain & Romney are. Of those 4, Thompson is the only one remotely conservative....In fact I might consider Huckster left of Romney.
So I’m not sure what the lesson to be learned is.
Hank
LOL! Nice try.
Go Santorum!
Happy New Year TBBT, all.
We should all know the GOP Establishment strategy adopted since 2008 to combat grass roots-
1. Install an “establishment” conservative to take the air out of the room (e.g.— J.D vs McCain.)
2. Otherwise, sabotage the anti-establishment candidate (Miller, O’Donnell, Sarah).
Hopefully, one of these candidates will affirmatively attack Romney, the Republican Establishment and this invidious strategy— and that candidate would be the one that we coalesce behind.
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