Something to be considered is that Japan’s success was, in a way, a blessing in disguise.
If the fleet had been at sea in the vicinity of Pearl, ALL the battleships would have been sunk, and the loss of life would have been enormous. Most of the Pearl Harbor battleships were bombarding Japanese islands in a year or two.
Additionally, after having stuck his finger in Japan’s eye by moving the fleet to Pearl, FDR spent the rest of the time up to the attack stripping the Pacific fleet of its assets by sending them to the Atlantic. He then cuts off the fuel supply to a militaristic maritime power, and does littlee to reinforce Hawaii. Short ws an idiot, Kimmel less so. But both took the blame that should have been shared much further around.
I don't believe that's true; Ships at sea can maneuver very well and they would also have had ammunition issued and available. Chances are also strong that the Enterprise and Saratoga would have been with them and the Japanese would have lost a lot more aircraft even before they reached the ships.
Last but not least, I would certainly prefer to fight someone on close to even terms at sea then get shot sitting still like most of crews had to face at Pearl Harbor.
No matter what happened, even if we won the fight, we still would have been at war with Japan.
All else being the same, if the attack took place at dawn Monday Dec 8, the loss of life would have been far greater because the sailors would have returned to their ships from shore leave and would be preparing to take to sea for the "work week".