This is an important and insightful axiom.
Many folks on this forum fail to recognize how formidable a candidate Obama is/will be. Especially with every conceivable media and popular culture outlet soundly in his corner.
Remember the sh!tbombs Romney landed on Newt between SC and FLA? Magnify that 100x and then imagine it going on for 90 consecutive days.
Plus that commie charlatan is well liked by those who receive a green US Treasury check...and every state/local municipal employee. Unions. All those teachers, janitors and bus drivers. All those businesses who derive the bulk of their revenue from the government...or are the beneficiary of favorable tax breaks and non-regulation.
And women. He'll likely win 60% and 70% of the subgroup of single women.
Hispanic vote. Black vote. Catholic vote. Jewish vote. Asian vote.
Obama walks in the door with at least 48% of the general electorate. Locked in.
People! Please don't think this is going to be easy. Don't think that because a 5th grader can figure out who the best choice is...that they'll actually choose that way when the choice is "What's good for me vs What's good for the nation".
While it's entirely possible we have Crossed the Rubicon and all hope is already lost, we must fight to our last breath, lest we be known to our enslaved posterity as the toilette scum we would otherwise be.
Our only hope is Newton Leroy Gingrich. The anti-Obama.
Newt has a long and successful history as a campaigner. I’ve found articles from the 90s and late 80s with Newt just going toe to toe with even the leaders of his own party fighting tax cuts, pushing welfare reform, making “controversial” statements. He’s fearless and a NATURAL LEADER. And leaders are something we haven’t had for a long time.
Mittens and Santorum don’t have that kind of talent or even any hint of it in their records. In 1994 I believe, Romney was running on a “I’m not Ronald Reagan” ticket. Santorum was running on a “I sat with Barbara boxer writing legislation for “Open Space.” I’m working with Hillary on legislation against violent video games” platform in 2006.
Newt Gingrich was running on a platform that consisted of blaming the welfare state as contributing to the collapse of society.
“Our only hope is Newton Leroy Gingrich. The anti-Obama.”
Absolutely!
** President Newt Gingrich-”Our beloved republic deserves nothing less.”
Keep in mind though that Newt suffered because he was outspent 12 to 1. That will not be true in the general election. We will probably have a pretty even playing field. Newt's platform is certainly business friendly. He should have no problem earning money once the choice is down to Obama or him. And I don't think Obama is going to quite get the billion they were hoping for. Also, free media is going to be available to Newt just as much as it is to Obama. I guarantee you Newt can handle the tough questions. He's a big boy and I honestly don't even think Obama and the media can do any worse than this grilling over the coals he's gotten in the primary, when even his own friends turned on him. Newt's going to be ready for anything they might throw at him.
Thank you. I wish more people would read what you wrote (and understand it). Too many FReepers consider Obama an empty suit, when the truth is he is anything but. He is intelligent, articulate (or can come across as such), has a team that is very good when it comes to strategy (very very good), has the largest amount of funding of any person participating in a US presidential election in history, and has a core base that will vote for him.
As you said, he comes with around 48% (I would put it 40% locked in) who will not vote for anyone else. If Obama is as foolish or as empty as some try to make him, then how did he get the most powerful seat in the world?
Sure, some say it is his 'handlers' that made that happen. That Obama is not smart, couldn't punch his way out of a wet paper bag, and it is his backers that made him become POTUS. Ok, even if you work with that, that means he has 'handlers' who gave a near-unknown first time junior senator who is wet-behind-the-ears the most powerful position in the world! That is actually more worrying than the first option if you ask me.
Bottom line ...Obama is the greatest political adversary to any Republican in modern history, both in terms of his ability to draft a message (something McCain absolutely did not have), as well as having a warchest of approximately $1 billion available to him once you put everything together. Those who think he is an 'empty suit' or that people would 'vote for a hamster before they vote for Obama' are sadly deluded. As you correctly put it, he has certain segments of society all for him (e.g. unions, women, etc). He has the media all for him (and just as importantly, against his opponent in the General, whomever that might be). He has loads of cash, both directly and indirectly through various support groups. He knows how to draft a message quite well, and with the support of the media can have that message playing quite well. This is a person who will say he got bin Laden. Already Newsweek Magazine has a story on Navy SEALs and how Obama has used them effectively as 'his army' to do all sorts of cool things. The economy is improving, at least according to the media, and there will be some who will buy into that (especially considering the human condition that tends to accept what is said often ...just look at how effective Romney's attack ads were in Florida against Newt). Apparently North Korea is now behaving, and I would not be surprised to see Syria also, 'miraculously,' get in line in the next few weeks. Going back to the economy, I would not be surprised if all indicators start showing improvement - whether or not that improvement is being seen by people on the ground is another question altogether, but the media will definitely report there is improvement. Also, the US will be compared to Europe and the reason for things not being as bad as they are there will be due to ...who else! Furthermore, the rise in the deficit and other things will be blamed on the 'sage action' of the administration to fight against the errors and issues wrought and brought about by the Bush administration. Yes, blaming Bush again, but it will work in a certain segment (and may even get some swing voters, especially when the media starts having 'experts' saying how bad things could have been IF ...)
Bottom line ...Obama is indeed beatable. He is not an invincible political juggernaut, but he is definitely a very powerful political juggernaut. Even more so than he was in 2008. If the GOP and Conservatives (there is an obvious difference between the two) do not get their act together they will get thrashed and trashed. They think they are facing Jimmy Carter when in fact what they are facing is the Democrat Ronald Reagan and the Second Coming of JFK rolled-into one (more so than Clinton was even). The GOP candidate will have to be able to stand up - directly - to Obama, to be able to intellectually defeat him as well as do so in a manner that is not so academic that people cannot get it (one of the things about Reagan that was sheer magic was how he could be extremely intelligent yet do so in a manner that got through to the common man), and basically be a strategic and tactical genius. That way, the GOP candidate would be able to edge out Obama to win. Anything else is a loss.
I believe that candidate is Gingrich.
However I am worried that the circular firing squad, and the endless debates (that are a HUGE record) have damaged both him and the other candidates. I cannot blame that on Obama (I am not big on conspiracy theories), but it could easily be said that one of the biggest positives for the man was for him to have his opponents trash each other in the public eye over and over and over again ...without him having to spend a single cent to do so. There was a time that pro-Perry and pro-Cain supporters couldn't stand each other, and now there is some (slight) friction between pro-Santorum and pro-Gingrich supporters. And obviously there is the huge divide between Romney and anti-Romney camps (for good reasons though). I am clearly not a political scientist or historian, but I doubt there has been an election cycle like this one (both in the number of debates, as well as in the amount of money spent in a primary trashing other candidates). It is like the various tribes of ancient Germany squabbling with each other, and raiding and killing one another, with the aim being that the winner of those wars of attrition will face off against Rome at the height of its power! It was ridiculous then, it is ridiculous now, and just like in the past the only way the tribal hordes can win is by coming together and assaulting as one.
Anyways, what do I know. Maybe this exercise by the GOP that appears like pure poison to me is manna from heaven, and maybe Obama is an empty suit who can fold to a hamster as some FReepers claim, and even Dr. Paul can defeat Obama later in the year. It is also possible that pigs can fly and the moon is made of cheese. All the same, I think those who think it will be easy are wrong, and unless the GOP and Conservatives get their act together - and quickly - they will realize that while Obama is not unbeatable he, and his team, are a veritable political juggernaut bearing down on them like some sentient steamroller.
But hey, as I said it may be possible that those who claim a hamster or their 5th grader niece could beat Obama in November may be correct. I just would not, to quote Thomas Sowell (in a very astute article where he also said Gingrich is the man to beat Obama), 'bet the rent money on it. And what is at stake is far bigger than the rent money.'
>>...People! Please don’t think this is going to be easy...<<
Considering Obama’s record so far, if it is NOT going to be easy, then this country’s electorate is irretrievably lost and we might as well start thinking about how to pick up the pieces after the imminent, complete & total collapse of the Republic.
I agree that the MSM, Dems and the GOP-e are all going to throw a royal fit if the status-quo power structure is threatened; however, Obama has been such an utter, easily-demonstrable failure, I can not see how he stands a chance against most any determined challenger.