“Additionally, we have a de facto Stimulus III from the Fed that has pumped money into the economy, causing a rising tide raising all boats.”
Actually, all the stimulus junk has done is cause inflation.
everything is more expensive. Been to the grocery store lately? 100% increase in some food items, not just gas!
Rising fuel prices percolate throughout the economy, including fuel and energy costs for farmers, food processors, and truckers, insecticides and herbicides that are petroleum derived, irrigation costs, etc. That said, inflation is by classical economics definition, an increase in the money supply. It does have the short term effect of making debts easier to pay by increasing the money supply. You could argue that the prior stimulus packages prevented a more severe collapse than what actually occurred. However, the long term effect is to defer the severe pain. There is only so long you can kick the can down the road. Nobody in either party except Ron Paul, who is unelectable, even proposes to balance the budget in the next 3-5 years. Congressman Ryan’s plan, though way better than anything in the mainstream, only projects a balanced budget by 2040.